Spot the Differential
25 September 2020 1040 comments
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After a disappointing start in Gameweek 1, we’re back on track having tipped Timothy Castagne (£5.6m) and Raheem Sterling (11.5m) last week.

This time, we’ve selected three differentials who are already off the mark this season, including two forwards who hit double figures last term, and a midfielder who we think is a viable alternative to community favourites Daniel Podence (£5.6m) and Phil Foden (£6.5m), without the rotation worries.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Gabriel Jesus

  • FPL ownership: 3.0%
  • Price: £9.5m
  • GW3-7 fixtures: LEI | lee | ARS | whu | shu

With Sergio Agüero (£10.4m) still recovering from a knee injury, Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m) looks set for an extended run in Manchester City’s starting XI, which hands FPL managers a potentially explosive differential option.

Having undergone knee surgery back in June, Pep Guardiola confirmed last week that Agüero is yet to train with his team-mates and will require longer than other players to get back up to speed – potentially up to two months.

In his absence, Jesus will most likely be tasked with leading the line, and his statistics from last season highlight just how influential he can be. 

His 101 shots, 92 of which arrived inside the box, and 34 big chances ranked second amongst all forwards, while of those who played a significant number of minutes, only Agüero could improve on his 0.78 expected goals (xG) per90. Despite, at times, being wasteful in front of goal, it demonstrates his ability to consistently get into good shooting positions.

Jesus was on the scoresheet in Manchester City’s first match of the season in Gameweek 2, as he returned deep into injury time in a 3-1 win at Wolverhampton Wanderers. Interestingly, Guardiola paired Rodri (5.5m) and Fernandinho (5.5m) up at the base of his midfield, with Foden, Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), Sterling and Jesus in front in a flexible 4-2-3-1, and it worked rather well. The Brazilian’s link up play, work rate and physicality stood out, while his two shots in the box matched that of Foden and De Bruyne.

Currently owned by just 3.0% of FPL managers, Jesus is a big differential who can provide a medium-term solution till Agüero returns from injury.

Matheus Pereira

  • FPL ownership: 2.5%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW3-7 fixtures: CHE | sou | BUR | bha | ful

Matheus Pereira (£6.0m) lit up the Championship last season, and finished the campaign with a total of eight goals and 16 assists.

116 chances created – more than any other player – and 111 shots over 42 appearances highlights his importance, but how will he fare in the Premier League?

Well, so far, pretty well, and it’s been a testing couple of weeks for newcomers West Bromwich Albion.

Already, Pereira has been involved in both of his side’s goals. He provided an assist for Grady Diangana’s (£5.5m) opener against Everton and also scored a superb free-kick in the same match. He also leads the way amongst team-mates for shots, chances created, final-third touches and take-ons, while offering multiple routes to points via set-pieces.

Last season, as the standout player in Albion’s attack, Pereira operated either as a number 10 in a 4-2-3-1 or out wide in a 4-3-3. However, this season, manager Slaven Bilić has mainly, and somewhat surprisingly, opted to use a back three system, which has seen the playmaker drift infield from his starting position on the right, with wing-back Daniel Furlong (£4.5m) offering width down that side. Whether or not this is a long-term solution, or simply to combat tough opposition, time will tell.

A Gameweek 3 home encounter at home to Chelsea is followed by a promising run of fixtures which sees the Baggies take on Southampton, Burnley, Brighton and Hove Albion and Fulham, and while this weekend’s matchup isn’t ideal, it’s worth pointing out the Blues have given up more chances down their left-side than any other zone in the opening two Gameweeks.

The likelihood is that West Brom will struggle this season, but if they can get Pereira on the ball often enough, they’re sure to create chances and score goals.

Chris Wood

using-the-top-10000-ownership-to-increase-your-fpl-rank-andys-article 7
  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £6.5m
  • GW3-7 fixtures: SOU | new | wba | TOT | CHE

2019/20 was the third season in a row that Chris Wood (£6.5m) has scored double figures in the Premier League.

The focal point of Burnley’s attack hit 14 goals in 29 starts, while only three forwards in the entire division registered more than his 31 big chances.

What’s particularly impressive is that he accumulated those numbers off of a modest 65 shots on goal, of which 41 arrived at Turf Moor, where he thrived and scored 64% of his goals.

Having finished the season strongly with goals in each of his last three appearances, Wood has continued from where he left off, as he found the back of the net in The Clarets’ first match of the season at Leicester City, logging three shots in the box and a further two big chances.

Burnley’s tenth placed finish last term possibly hasn’t been talked about enough. After a run of four defeats around the New Year, they lost just twice in 16 games, one of which was against Manchester City, and the other on the final day of the season.

Looking ahead to the weekend, Wood could find some joy against Southampton if they continue with their high defensive line. The 28-year-old loves to operate on the shoulder of the last man in an attempt to stretch the game. It resulted him in being caught offside more times than any other player last season, which is something he discussed in a recent interview with The Athletic: “It really doesn’t bother me, getting caught offside, because I know that the one time that I don’t, I’ll be in on goal.”

The closer Wood is to goal, the more dangerous he becomes, and ahead of a home tie against a vulnerable Saints defence, is a tempting differential.

1,040 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. ☈☾
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Foden to play up top if the Jesus rumours are true?

    1. tibollom
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      rumours

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Prob Sterling Mahrez Foden with Raheem in the middle if Jesus were to miss out

    3. The FPL Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      What rumors?

    4. ElliotJHP
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Unfounded rumours and doubt Foden up top would be the next port of call

    5. @persecuted_by_mods
      5 years, 10 months ago

      What Jesus rumours?

    6. Pukki Blinders
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Foden would be the last to play no.9

    7. Zimo
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Fake rumors

    8. Rolls-Royce
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Ederson.

    9. xHaTr
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Tweet deleted now

    10. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 17 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      If anyone falls for stuff like that so quickly when unconfirmed, you would want to be very gullible.

  2. Lee8686
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Digne + Zaha + Jiminez
    Or
    R James + KDB + 4.5m FW

    1. Tosa86
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      long term A
      short term B

  3. Lallana Del Rey
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Most points this gameweek?
    Wood vs Abraham vs Maupay

    1. JBG
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Abraham if he starts.

  4. ElliotJHP
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    No Everton or Son but can't have them all, thoughts on this for a WC lot?

    Martinez
    Robertson Saiss James
    Salah Barnes Foden KdB
    Wood Jimenez Jesus

    Steer Lamptey Mitchell Bissouma

    1. El Lobito 10
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Decet

    2. Weasel Boy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Nice
      Different

  5. El Lobito 10
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Spurs have three games this coming week, on the back of an away European game. Son is high risk with this in mind. Recipe for a failed bandwagon

    1. pablo discobar
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      sell for Chelsea when the best option appears is my plan

      1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
        • 17 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Exactly Pulisic is on radar he could be priced at closer to 8 in a few weeks!

  6. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Which combo?

    A) TAA and Lamptey
    B) Robertson and R. James

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      B

    2. JBG
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      B imo

    3. Tosa86
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Long term A
      short Term B for james.

  7. Rolls-Royce
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Man City vs Arsenal next week in Carabao Cup. Expecting rotation vs Leicester and Leeds heavily. Enough to put me off Foden on WC.

    1. Flair
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Your loss.

      1. Pukki Blinders
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Foden is no loss mate

        1. Flair
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          Lol

    2. ☈☾
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Good point

    3. Zimo
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Rotation with who? Im pretty sure pep will prioritize premier league over the carabao cup and so will arsenal.

      1. Rolls-Royce
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        City seem to take Cup games quite seriously.

        1. Flair
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          Not anymore, look at Pep's recent comments.

        2. Pukki Blinders
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          Quite seriously? Did you see the team they fielded yesterday

          1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
            • 17 Years
            5 years, 10 months ago

            Agreed. A bit of research would not go amiss before borderline hyped up hysterical comments.
            Amusing though.

        3. Zimo
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          You're not even right on your fixture. It's Burnley vs City not arsenal

    4. _Gunner
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Liverpool are playing Arsenal in the Carabao cup, right?

      1. Seanigula
        • 17 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Oct 1 I think, and City play Burnley...no idea what this guy is on about

      2. Rolls-Royce
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah, right. My bad. Nevermind.

  8. Evasivo
    • 16 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Point hits Vs Value always decent discussion, especially at the early parts of the season where building team value so critical.

    As an example I have Werner and want to replace after deadline for Jimenez, however by that point Werner will have dropped in value and Jimenez risen.

    Would you spend a 4pt hit to avoid losing £0.2?

    I probably won't as Werner has WBA but if not then I'd definitely justify the cost myself.

    1. ☈☾
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Points > Value any day

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Werner won't drop now - being bought more than sold

    3. Pukki Blinders
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Disagree with taking hits for value, unless the fixture is significantly more favourable

    4. Zimo
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Losing 0.2 at this stage of the season isn't ideal. I'd take the hit

      1. Zimo
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Werner isn't going to lose value though. He's going up again. Theres a chance Jimenez doesn't rise either. So don't do it.

    5. Dr. Rog
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      i do it regularly during the first half of the season.
      2nd half im more frugal

    6. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 17 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Normally I would go for value.
      But in this case Werner is being transferred IN - large numbers and he is playing West Brom.

      Jimenez will likely get one goal but take -4 off that.
      Werner could get a lot more.

  9. henkongs
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Rate my team please

    Mcarthy - Nyland
    Justin - TAA - Vinagre - KWP - Mitchell
    Son - Salah - KDB - Foden - Trossard
    Mitrovic-DCL-Ings

    Nyland is going away as quickly as possible, but 0,0 in the bank, need another 0,5 to swap to Martinez

  10. Lingard’s Shin Guards
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    A) Werner, Anguissa (343)
    B) Son, Brewtser (352)

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      A

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      A - I don't like the non playing bench option in 3-5-2

      1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
        • 17 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Brewster likely to move, 10 clubs after him.
        Sheff U and Palace most likely moves.

    3. _Gunner
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      A

    4. Zilla
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      A

    5. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 17 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      B for me, love those midfield options

  11. DannyDrinkVodka
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    A) Zaha & Werner
    B) Havertz & Ings

    1. Lingard’s Shin Guards
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      A

  12. Tsssst
    • 15 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    1.

    Martinez Steer
    Taylor James Saiss (Mitchell Justin)
    Salah KDB Havertz Rodriguez Podence
    Kane Jimenez (Brewster)

    or

    2. Salah-less

    Martinez Steer
    TAA James Saiss Robertson (Mitchell)
    Foden KDB Havertz Rodriguez (Podence)
    Kane Jimenez (Brewster)

  13. Flair
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Call me insane but I try not to trust an unverified source that hasn't even hit 10k followers.

    1. @persecuted_by_mods
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Where is the source though and what was said?

        1. @persecuted_by_mods
          5 years, 10 months ago

          Deleted

          1. Pukki Blinders
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 10 months ago

            There you go, the clown removed itself

            1. @persecuted_by_mods
              5 years, 10 months ago

              Haha but what was said? Even a clown with no followers could be correct sometimes

              1. Pukki Blinders
                • 7 Years
                5 years, 10 months ago

                He mentioned something about hearing “rumours” that Jesus was injured, absolute garbage with no source at all

              2. Lingard’s Shin Guards
                • 7 Years
                5 years, 10 months ago

                Just said that news was circling around that jesus had picked up an injury

                Quickly deleted. BS

        2. Flair
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          Tweet has been deleted, tells you all you need to know.

  14. pablo discobar
    • 16 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    GK Martinez/Steer
    DEF Robertson, Saiss, Taylor, Justin, Mitchell
    MID Salah, KDB, Son, Hamez, Burke
    FWD DCL, Jimmy, Wood.

    Gone with Wood over mitrovic, at least till GW 6.

    Final part of the puzzle is

    A. DCL/4.5 mid

    Or

    B. Greenwood/4.5 Striker.

    B leaves. 2 in bank.

    How's it all looking?

    Cheers

  15. Shark Team
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Ings > Jimenez all day long

    1. Ser Davos
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Interesting. Got WBA coming up

      Wolves in a better place than Soton though

    2. ivantys
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      This is true Ings has higher percentage of goals scored for team as compared to Jimmy.

  16. Ze_Austin
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Samatta's sale confirms Davis as the impact sub

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Yes till Wesley back at least.

    2. Ser Davos
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Brewster Davis Delap

      Decent for those on 3-5-2

      1. Klaren
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Seems more like a 5 - 4 - 0.5 formation with the single forward getting 0 or 1 point each GW.

        1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
          • 17 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          Unless of course you have built Team Value quickly and the 4.5m forward is effectively a 4.0 defender.
          Think Brewster is worth the gamble.

    3. Dr. Rog
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      brewster or delap i can understand but as for David - i wouldnt want to use up a precious villa slot.

  17. King Kohli
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Would you WC this squad?

    McCarthy*
    TAA Coady Davies* Ayling
    Salah KDB JRod ASM*
    Werner Ings
    Button Reed Justin Vassilev

    0FT 1.5 ITB

    1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      No. Looks decent.
      Bad game yesterday. Dropped two catches and you still cannot play a left armer's delivery angling outside the off stump.

      1. King Kohli
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Haha, tough day yesterday.
        Do you think Davies & ASM start this gw?
        Looking to move one of them for a hit.

        1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          Davies should play this one. ASM is 50:50. The news three days back was that he should be fir for Sunday's game.

  18. Zilla
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    A) Castagane, Lamptey and Anguissa (442)
    B) James, Dunne/4.0m and Kilch/Podence (352)

  19. Dr. Rog
    • 16 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Whassup folks. Been out of the loop.

    Did anything of note occur in the last 24 hours from an FPL perspective?

    1. Zilla
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Not really, talks of KDB and Jesus missing next game but seems incorrect.

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      KDB’s possible concussion... as a Dr. can you give us a prognosis?

      1. Dr. Rog
        • 16 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        i'm not a doctor

        1. Dr. Rog
          • 16 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          well, not that kind anyway

          1. @persecuted_by_mods
            5 years, 10 months ago

            Doctor of thuganomics confirmed

        2. @persecuted_by_mods
          5 years, 10 months ago

          Are you at least a Rog?

  20. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Liam Delap 4.5m City FWD.

    Imagine.

    (Please don't take this post as any confirmation on rumours.)

    1. pablo discobar
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Pep said last night he's not going out on loan and will be around first team as needed

    2. ElliotJHP
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      It's easy if you try.

    3. Leonard hatred
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Delap triple C confirmed

    4. Dr. Rog
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      first thought was Rory Delap - and it turns out thats his Dad.

      1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
        • 17 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        I feel old! I noticed he has not declared for Ireland.
        How are his long throws?

  21. Fero1905
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    I think my final WC team is Done

    Martinez
    TAA James Saiss
    Salah KDB Rodriguez Podence
    Werner Mitrovic Jimenez

    Steer Lamptey burke Mitchell

  22. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 16 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    "KDB & The Concussion Discussions" would be a great name for a band

    1. Das Boot
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      lol

  23. Das Boot
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    concussion percussion discussions

    1. Long ago I drew a walrus
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Concussion repercussions discussion

  24. Bobby Digital
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Spurs need to start racking up some clean sheets.

    1. @persecuted_by_mods
      5 years, 10 months ago

      They are too soft, central midfield especially is lightweight. CBS are either past it (Alder) crap (Dier) or have regressed too much (Sanchez)

      1. Murder on Zidane's Flo…
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Agree with the above. Wouldn't rely on them. Am expecting them to be leaky

      2. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        I like this summary - made me smile. Doesn't inspire confidence in them though.

  25. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 16 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    delap essential?

    1. Pukki Blinders
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Essential for a gullible clown maybe

      1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
        • 16 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        please have more respect for the bald fraud

    2. Lingard’s Shin Guards
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Maybe 40 mins ago. Not anymore

  26. Lee8686
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    A) TAA, Justin, Zaha and Rodriguez
    Or
    B) James, Lamptey, KDB and Podence

  27. Murder on Zidane's Flo…
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    How's she looking?

    Ryan 4.0
    Saiss TAA Robbo (Lamptey Mitchell)
    Rodriguez KDB Son Zaha (Anguissa)
    Ings DCL Jiminez

  28. Brosstan
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Delap and Doyle double up on WC? Immense value if rumours are true...

    1. Klaren
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Make sure to get Hardwood-Bellis in as well while on it.

  29. Strchld
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    On WC 0.3 short to get Werner and cant find any other way than drop TAA to Robbo. Is it worth it? Or play 4-4-2 every week including Justin or Mitchell this week. (Means downgrading Foden or Podence.)

    1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      TAA to Robertson is ok.

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        This

    2. Dr. Rog
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      not much difference between TAA & Robbo this season.

    3. Weasel Boy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      go Robbo

    4. Murder on Zidane's Flo…
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Robbo's heat map is insane and TAA looks a little off his usual level for now. Fine imo

    5. Bavarian
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Whats wrong with Robbo...I think he will match TAA at the end of the season in term of points.

    6. Strchld
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Thanks all, probably doing it.

  30. Weasel Boy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    What time is city presser?

    1. @persecuted_by_mods
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Done yesterday looks like