Spot the Differential
12 February 2021 1526 comments
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Gameweek 24 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Burnley, Chelsea and Fulham, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Matthew Lowton

  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: cry + FUL | WBA | tot | ARS | eve

Following the inclusion of Ben Mee (£5.0m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Matthew Lowton (£4.5m).

Owned by just over 2% of FPL managers, the full-back has impressed this year and took up his most advanced position of the season against Brighton and Hove Albion last time out. That was in part due to Graham Potter’s 3-4-1-2 shape, but the fact Lowton registered three shots and had more final-third touches than any other player on the pitch is encouraging. 

They were a little unfortunate to concede too, restricting their opponents to just two shots on target and 0.52 expected goals (xG).

It’s also worth pointing out that both of Burnley’s opponents in the forthcoming double, Crystal Palace and Fulham, have often looked vulnerable when defending the left-side of the pitch in recent matches. That is something Lowton and Johann Berg Gudmundsson (£5.4m), the Clarets only natural right-sided midfielder who is now available again after injury, will surely look to take advantage of.

Meanwhile, Burnley’s clean sheet prospects look promising, as the Eagles are set to be without talisman Wilfried Zaha (£7.1m) and have failed to score without him in the starting XI this season. Fulham aren’t exactly known for their goalscoring either, and though that could change if they can up their conversation rate, I think owners can go into this double optimistic that Sean Dyche’s side can return at least one clean sheet.

Lowton has upped his performance levels in recent weeks, and now adding more consistency to his game, could be a solid differential.

César Azpilicueta

  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £5.7m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: NEW | sou | MUN | EVE | lee

Prior to the departure of Frank Lampard, César Azpilicueta (£5.7m) was facing an uncertain future at Chelsea.

The Spaniard had fallen below Reece James (£5.0m) in the right-back pecking order, which limited him to just eight Premier League starts up until Gameweek 20. However, Azpilicueta was restored to the starting XI in Thomas Tuchel’s first match in charge against Wolverhampton Wanderers and has stayed there since.

In fact, the captain has played every top-flight minute under the German coach, and is clearly benefitting from his manager’s decision to play a 3-4-3 formation. Now stationed on the right of a back-three, a position he thrived in under Antonio Conte in the 2016/17 title winning campaign, Azpilicueta is averaging 7.25 points per game and posting some encouraging numbers. 

Over the last four Gameweeks, amongst all defenders, the 31-year-old ranks joint-fourth for created chances, sixth for penalty area touches and tenth for final-third touches. He even provided a goal in the 2-0 win over Burnley. 

During that run, Chelsea have given up just five shots on target and 1.98 expected goals conceded (xGC), the lowest total in the league, which has helped them deliver clean sheets against Wolves, Burnley and Tottenham Hotspur. The quality of their opponents should of course be considered, but regardless, it’s a positive sign so early in Tuchel’s reign.  

Azpilicueta is a real leader, and alongside Thiago Silva (£5.6m) and Antonio Rudiger (£4.6m), offers plenty of clean sheet potential in the coming weeks.

Antonee Robinson

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW24-28 fixtures: eve + bur | SHU | cry | liv | MCI

23-year-old Antonee Robinson (£4.4m) joined Fulham from Wigan Athletic back in August, and has been one of their best performers since.

Though he is still waiting for his first attacking return of the season, his numbers are encouraging, and if Scott Parker’s side can step up and start converting their chances he could offer value at just £4.4m.

Since making his debut back in Gameweek 4, Robinson has shown himself to be effective in the final-third. 

Amongst all top-flight defenders, he ranks joint-seventh for created chances and final-third touches, eighth for crosses and second for successful take-ons. In fact, only Luke Ayling (£4.4m), João Cancelo (£6.0m), Ben White (£4.4m) and Azpilicuetahave a higher expected assist (xA) delta, which suggests he has been really unfortunate not to register a single assist.

The Cottagers goalless draw against West Ham United last time out leaves them 18th in the standings with 15 points, eight less than Burnley who are 17th. And though their Double Gameweek fixtures aren’t the easiest, their appeal is boosted by games to follow against Sheffield United and Crystal Palace. It’s also worth noting that they have a guaranteed fixture in Blank Gameweek 29, which could be useful for those who have already used the Free Hit chip.

Robinson has looked good since arriving in South London, and given the schedule, could be an effective budget differential.

  1. Saka Punch
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    1 week punt - who scores more:

    A) Shaw
    B) Mee/Tark
    C) Cavani

    1. VaVaVoom
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      B

    2. Pep's Money Laundry
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      B

    3. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      B Tarkowski

    4. toerag
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      b

    5. Peteski29
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      B

  2. VaVaVoom
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Captain
    A. Gundogun
    B. Sterling

    Play 1
    1. Grealish
    2. Targett
    3. Coufal

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Sterling and Grealish

    2. jimmy.floyd
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      B1

    3. toerag
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      a1

    4. Peteski29
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      A1

  3. Gudjohnsen
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Double Burnley defence worth the risk?

    1. Neves say Neves
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Wondering this myself. I know that if I go for it I will have a pretty stressful weekend!

    2. potatoace
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      If its not for a hit or compromising your future squad , yeah sure.

    3. Pooodle
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Yes

  4. dando89
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Anyone else binned Salah?
    I did and am going to be scared

    1. VaVaVoom
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      I hesistated all day then swapped for sterling

    2. Gudjohnsen
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Relax he´ll blank

    3. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      I did for Sterling

    4. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      He's basically a placeholder right now for me.

      Gonna become KdB or Kane for GW26 I think unless Liverpool suddenly turn it on.

      1. FPL Daniel
        • 16 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        I am firmly holding

    5. toerag
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      i would have for sterling if i didnt have 3 city

  5. caldracula
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    In which order would you start the following?

    A) Coufal (SHU)
    B) Dallas (ars)
    C) Chilwell (NEW)

    1. Neves say Neves
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      A

    2. VaVaVoom
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      ACB

    3. Peteski29
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      ACB

  6. Botman and Robben
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    2 FT, 4.8 ITB.

    Should I do DCL -> Cavani/Ings and save FT or get rid of Coufal to get Mee too?

    Pope
    Dias Stones Coufal
    Gundogan Bruno Salah Son
    Bamford Antonio DCL

    Martinez Dallas Bissouma Bednarek

    1. Neves say Neves
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      I'm in a similar spot. What do you think of DCL>Kane?

      1. Botman and Robben
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        That could work too.

      2. Tango74
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        I’m think of DCL to Watkins abs next weekend Antonio to Kane

        Why is everyone keeping DCL?

  7. Booked4Dissent
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Journalists seem to think that because Dias trained today means he will play tomorrow. I think having a virus that affects the stomach and therefore ability to eat takes it out of you. That’s why I’m considering doing Dias —> Stones for higher chance of defender playing both games.

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Not just journalists. Hopeful FFS users too.

      The reality is we have no clue so it's a roll of the dice either way. Anyone who says anything different is a fool.

    2. toerag
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      also "having a virus" and "giving him a bit of a rest as he's our best defender"

      sound a little alike to me

  8. Horlicks esq.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    UGH.

    Such a gross FT this week. Rolling one and using one on Justin to a Burnley defender. I read the Mee article and now the Lowton article - Could easily end in 4 points for either.

    Is there a community favourite on BUR defenders. Not going with Pope as De Gea and Martinez have value tied up.

    1. Neves say Neves
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      BigManBakar likes Tarkowski the most

    2. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Lol, just wait till you see the Scout Team 😉

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Lowton. Save money.

    4. Grealish
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      What you mean value tied up, you can get returns by selling Martinez for profit ?

  9. AC Pilkington
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Pope or Rich captain?

    1. Gudjohnsen
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Not a City attacker?

      1. AC Pilkington
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        No, those two

    2. northernmuppet
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Between those two.. Pope.. but city would be much better

    3. PompeyUpNorth!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Rich out of those 2

  10. Gudjohnsen
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Start one off

    A. Soucek
    B. Saka
    C. Coufal

    1. northernmuppet
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Coufal

  11. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    I'd like Cavani for the next two but Newcastle between the two Europa League fixtures isn't ideal.

    1. northernmuppet
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      I’m considering it too.. think it’s worth a punt

    2. Neves say Neves
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Yeah he's my favourite DCL replacement atm but I'm really worried about him not getting many minutes vs Newcastle. Do you think you will go for him? I might just get Kane instead

      1. northernmuppet
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        I’m going to WC on 26 and get Kane back then.. so may not hold Cavani longer than the two games..

        Risk for game time but I think he may be benched for Europe

        1. Neves say Neves
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 16 days ago

          If I get Cavani this week I'll sell him for Kane in 26. Worth the risk do you think?

      2. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        I don't know yet. Not loads of options.

        I'd like him but don't think he'll play the full next two.

        I could get Ings for 3x fixtures.

        Kane I don't really want this week. Can get next week, or 26 with a WC.

  12. northernmuppet
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    DCL/Stones/Grealish -> Cavani/Lowton/Sterling

    Worth a -4? I lose 0.4 on Grealish but bring him back on wildcard in 26..

  13. ZakyJ
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Im likely to WC next week so have 2FT and lots of funds to use:

    Martinez
    Coufal Stones Cancelo
    Gundo Salah Grealish Soucek Bruno
    Antonio* Bamford

    (Forster DCL* Allioski Justin*)

    looking at DCL & Justin > Richarlison & Mee, starting both over Bamford and Coufal?

    right move??

    1. northernmuppet
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Cavani and Mee instead.. bench Soucek

  14. The Red Devil
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Is DGW in 26 confirmed? Will we get any kinda confirmation before deadline? I have a WC 25 BB 26 strategy
    Based on which I might take punt in 24

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Don't WC25, BB26. I'm pretty sure it's a trap.

      If you go really hard to BB26, you are weak for GW25 and 29 and then you're also out the WC.

      1. Pooodle
        • 16 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        I'm not sure that's necessarily right especially if Villa v Spurs moves to 29. You can then get in Leeds, Villa, and Spurs players who either double or have good fixtures in 26 and who play 29.

        1. Gemma817
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 16 days ago

          This

      2. The Red Devil
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        For GW29 I have FH

  15. JONALDINHO
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Chances of Mitchell starting?

    1. g40steve
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      He plays or doesn’t feature

  16. jimmy.floyd
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Play one:
    A Raphinha
    B Dallas
    C Targett

    Have Bamford

    1. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      C

  17. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Martinez
    Mee Dias Stones Coufal
    Grealish Bruno Gundo(c) Salah
    Antonio DCL
    Mccarthy Adams Maddison Allioski

    A) DCL > Cavani
    B) Play Adams over DCL and hold free

  18. yakirh
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Who to captain?
    A. Gundogan
    B. Pope

    Who to bench?
    1. Antonio
    2. Raphinha
    3. Coufal

    Team as it stands:
    Pope
    Dias Cancelo Coufal Lowton
    Salah Gundogan Grealish Bruno
    Bamford Antonio

    (Martinez Raphinha DCL Dallas)

    1. fc_skrald
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Gundo over Pope. Antonio

    2. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      A 1

    3. toerag
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      a2

  19. smix
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    How about Ashley Barnes as a replacement for DCL. Differential potential and decent fixtures including WBA next

    1. That's Groß
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Fixtures says yes absolutely but then again Burnley don’t score many goals, his ceiling is 9 points and I’d rather have DCL afterwards

    2. Pooodle
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      I'd rather have Cavani, Richarlison, Ings etc

  20. fc_skrald
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    So I did it again with too many options on my bench and it ain't even good enough for a bench boost...Good to go?

    Martínez
    Cancelo, Lowton, Coufal
    Son, Salah, Fernandes(C), Grealish, Lookman(VC)
    Bamford, Ings

    Button, Alonso, Antonio, Digne

  21. Azathoth
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Who 1 to start from : DCL - Soucek - Rudiger

    Thanx.

    1. The Mighty Whites
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Rudiger

      1. The Mighty Whites
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        Actually, no, Soucek

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Soucek

    3. Peteski29
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Soucek

  22. ArseneAllTheWay
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Play

    A) coufal (SHU H)
    B) Bamford (ARS A)

    1. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      A

    2. Azathoth
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Bam

  23. Peteski29
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Is this worth a BB? All chips still intact.

    Pope
    Dias Stones Lowton
    Gundo(C) Salah Bruno Soucek
    Antonio Cavani Bamford

    Martinez Coufal Son Dallas

    1. toerag
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      yes!

    2. Pooodle
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Tough one - could work out, but also it wouldn't be very surprising if Son and Dallas blanked

  24. Gemma817
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Why do I feel like Soucek will haul big time this week. Thinking of benching Grealish instead of him. I mean Brighton's been pretty good defensively, right?

    1. That's Groß
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Brighton solid but Villa good going forward. Can see a 1-1 here

    2. toerag
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      brighton def improved

  25. tbos83
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Do we think Pep was serious about Ederson taking pens?

    1. Pooodle
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      no

    2. Uncle Gamst
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Errm...no, unless it's the 95 minute and City are 4 goals ahead 😉

  26. That's Groß
    • 15 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    I have Sterling going into this week with Stones and Dias as other MCI players.

    Is it worth doing Sterling > Gundogan?

    Many positives for this move, including the obvious freeing up of cash to fund Kane next week, for example.

    Is it worth it? Or just too sideways. Frustrated over the last few weeks because Gundogan keeps out scoring him.

    Opinions needed, please!

    1. Pooodle
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Definitely not - Sterling is the top captain choice this week

      1. That's Groß
        • 15 Years
        5 years, 16 days ago

        Interesting, I hadn’t realised that. I’ll leave him in then and hope Gundogan has a quieter few games.

        Thank you.

    2. PompeyUpNorth!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      If it was me I’d captain Sterling and that is exactly what I am going to do.

    3. toerag
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      if i had sterling and gundo id probably go sterling.

      but i dont.
      bu@@er.

    4. yakirh
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Are you kidding me???
      Keep Sterling and captain him!

  27. The Mighty Whites
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    A - DCL to Richarlison and bench Son
    B - Keep DCL (bench) and start Son?

  28. raoulduke71
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Play SAKA or RUDIGER?

    1. The Mighty Whites
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 16 days ago

      Rudiger

  29. Pooodle
    • 16 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    Worth bench boosting with this lot? I was set to do so but having Digne, Dias and Antonio in my starting 11 is making me worried about it...

    BB: Mendy, Coufal, Soucek and Bamford

  30. abaalan
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 16 days ago

    For one week, rather have Pope or Bur def?

    Could BB with Martinez, Raphinha, Digne, Mitchell for -4... worth it? (also have Antonio whos flagged)