Pro Pundits - Andy
30 April 2021 1302 comments
andy85wsm andy85wsm
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Even with five Gameweeks left of the season there are so many big talking points in the Fantasy Premier League community.

I have taken a closer look at the three most important ones ahead of Gameweek 34…

Vardy to Kane

There was a lot of disappointment from FPL managers who swapped Harry Kane (£11.8m) to Jamie Vardy (£10.3m) after the latter blanked. The key question is should that transfer be reversed.

Both players have pretty good fixtures in Gameweek 34 and 35:

  • Kane = Sheffield United (home), Leeds (away)
  • Vardy = Southampton (away), Newcastle (home)

As we know from Neale’s article earlier this month, there is a chance that Leicester get a Double Gameweek in Gameweek 35 which would add Manchester United into the mix. It’s not the perfect double but it does mean that Vardy has three fixtures in the next two.

We do need to take into account that if that happens it would mean Vardy and Leicester blank in Gameweek 36. So from Gameweek 34 to 36 both Kane and Vardy have the same amount of fixtures but if you delay the switch back until Gameweek 36 you can get an extra fixture.

Both players have penalties in their locker so that doesn’t differentiate them. Looking over their last six matches the stats look like this:

  • Kane = 16 shots in the box, 5 chances created, 5.64 non-pen xGI
  • Vardy = 11 shots in the box, 8 chances created, 4.05 non-pen xGI

Kane comes out on top as you might expect, but Vardy is still chipping away. Over the season their xGI per 90 is Kane (0.69) and Vardy (0.70).

The other thing to consider if Kane’s fitness. We didn’t get a proper look in the EFL Cup final as he didn’t get a huge amount of touches of the ball, so we will need to see what Ryan Mason says about his fitness.

For me I think I’d ride out the Vardy move. You have the potential of an extra fixture and can still look to make the switch in Gameweek 36. I might recommend not watching the Spurs game though…

Is it time to sell Chelsea defenders?

At this point we’re all aware of just how good Chelsea’s defence is. They’ve conceded 25.79xG so far this season, just behind Man City at 24.92, making them an elite defence.

One of the issues we have to contend with is rotation, at this point every defender including César Azpilicueta (£5.9m) has been rested, even the goalkeeper! The only thing in my mind that might reduce the amount of rotation is Chelsea are still in with a serious shot of top four in the Premier League, and Tuchel will want to put his best team out as often as possible.

Looking at the fixtures though, it may be time to jump off anyway.

Fulham (home) in Gameweek 34 and Aston Villa (away) in Gameweek 38 are their easiest fixtures left. Outside of that they have to play Manchester City, Leicester and Arsenal, as well as another Champions League semi final, and the FA Cup final.

I wouldn’t necessarily back against their defence in general, we know how good it is and they won’t concede many goals in that period, but with tougher fixtures and some fear of rotation we can probably start planning to get rid after Fulham.

Stuart Dallas (£5.3m) ends the season with Burnley, Southampton and West Brom. Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.6m) has West Brom, Burnley and Crystal Palace, while Vladimir Coufal (£4.7m) has Brighton, West Brom and Southampton.

They are all different prices so it depends on your budget, but there may be other ways to get clean sheets during the run in, depending on when you want to sell your Chelsea defender(s).

Selling Bruno Fernandes

I touched on this in my previous article and thought Bruno Fernandes (£11.5m) was probably worth keeping for Burnley and Leeds, but with another two blanks people are getting fed up.

Over the last six matches he has just one goal (a penalty vs Man City) and one assist (vs Brighton).

It’s not all doom and gloom however. Over the last six matches no other midfielder has a higher expected goal involvement than Fernandes with 4.40. Even if you remove the penalty it’s still 3.61 which would put him only behind Mohammed Salah (£12.7m).

Liverpool is a tough match and if you have your Free Hit left I think you can make a case to sell. For any potential Double Gameweeks you could still bring him back in, and as I’ve mentioned in previous articles I don’t see him as the best captaincy option at any point between now and the end of the season.

If you don’t have your Free Hit, you have a much tougher decision to make. A bit like Kane vs Vardy, Fernandes might get a Double, but he would then blank as well. So if you were thinking of selling to Son Heung-min (£9.5m) for example, they’d both have the same number of fixtures, and arguably with Sheffield United up next, Son is better in the short term.

However, you could just keep for Liverpool, hope for a Double and then look to sell in Gameweek 36, given that a double as shown in this article would be Aston Villa and Leicester.

One thing to consider though is a lot of fans think that Fernandes needs a rest, and the ideal time looking at the schedule could be against Aston Villa in Gameweek 35. He’s only not started one game this season, but with Europa League, Liverpool and Europa League to come we could see his second league benching. Top four is all but secured, and the current schedule has the second Europa League leg being played on the Thursday and then Aston Villa on the Sunday, before Leicester in midweek.

If I had him I’d be tempted to stick and hope that he’s not rested. While the points haven’t been coming in the underlying stats still look good and with a double to come it wouldn’t be a fun watch without him.

1,302 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Rotation's Alter Ego
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 15 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    You really thought I’d let you down! Of course we’ll beat the deadline!

    Kasper, Thomas, Cags, Evans, Fofana, Castagne, Wilf, Youri, Maddison, Kele, Vards.

    Unchanged again.

    https://twitter.com/SmuelMartinFPL/status/1388125411192803332?s=20

    1. @persecuted_by_mods
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Nice

    2. g40steve
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Excellent that spam account caught me out, did look very good 🙂

  2. JoeSoap
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    A. Salah>Son
    B. Fernandes>Son
    C. Save/other

    Mendy
    TAA, Rudiger, Holding
    Lingard, Fernandes, Gundog, Salah
    Wood, Nacho, Kane
    Forster Shaw, Jota, Coady

  3. _Ninja_
    • 15 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Start Veltman or Holding?

    1. xHaTr
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Veltman

      1. _Ninja_
        • 15 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers

  4. Fudgy
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    The fixture announcements are confusing me :/

  5. Tsparkes10
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    A) Jota, 5th defender- Struijk
    B) Perreira, 5th defender- Veltman

  6. seewhyaxe
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Everton's dgw36 looks nice

    1. Pompel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Not DGW35 as anticipated by BCrellin then ?

      1. xHaTr
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        No it will be 35

      2. Netters2018
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Correct those 4 other doubles going into gw37 i think

        1. Netters2018
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          Ignore me prev page suggests ben waa correct...its confusing!!

          1. xHaTr
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 3 months ago

            Very confusing!

  7. rnrd
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    chasing in my ML.
    Alonso (C) as as punt?

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Yay

    1. ‘Tis the Season
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      🙄

  8. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Come on Crellin tell us what it means!??? 🙂

    1. Bury94
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      This!

    2. Netters2018
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Means he was wrong with his assumptions... gw37 to be the double and gw36 picks up just the everton villa saints and palace games..gw35 normal

      1. xHaTr
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Not true, see previous page

      2. SomeoneKnows
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        So no blanks in GW35?

  9. ‘Tis the Season
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Sorry for the repeat..repeat..

    Do I have my bench right?

    Mendy
    TAA Shaw Coufal
    Greenwood Salah Son Lindz
    Nacho DCL Kane
    (Holding Rudger Jota)

  10. The Wogmeister
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Did Tuchel say if Mendy will start tomo v Fulham?

  11. ZAMUNDA
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Bench one:
    A) Jota
    B) Lacazette

  12. tabby98
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Mendy, Forster
    TAA, Dias, Rudiger, Fofana, Coady
    Salah, Bruno, Jota, Lingard, Saka
    Iheanacho, Kane, Vydra

    £0.7m ITB. 2FT

    What to do here guys?

    1. De Gea is GOAT
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Bruno to Son surely!

  13. Leeds-Utd
    • 15 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    With Rudiger Out
    Should I start
    1- Shaw (liverpool)
    2- Holding (New)

    1. Scholes Out For Summer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Should've started Shaw even if Rudiger was fit

      1. Leeds-Utd
        • 15 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks

  14. Mr. O'Connell
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Free hit relatively worthless now, unless I'm reading it wrong.

  15. Lav
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Start one

    Jota (mun A)
    ASM (ars H)

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      B

  16. afsr
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Bottomed

    Will Mount be benched?
    Thinking of Mount -> Sigurdsson

  17. More Cowbell
    • 16 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Bench one plz
    Coady (wba)
    Holding (new)
    Veltman (LEE)

    1. De Gea is GOAT
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Coady

  18. Eleven Hag
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Captain - Nacho or Vardy?

    1. Botman and Robben
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Nacho

  19. The Red Devil
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Is rudiger ruled out for the weekend or a doubt?

    1. @persecuted_by_mods
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Ruled out

  20. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Lol talk about the blind leading the blind on here 😆

    1. Mr. O'Connell
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Guilty. Wtf is going on?

      1. @persecuted_by_mods
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Panic!!!

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Who said that?

  21. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    TAA -> Castagne?

    1. Bobby Crush
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Dunno - I got both.
      Liverpool have good fixtures, and TAA is on form.

  22. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    So I can sell Bruno for now then? 🙂

    Vardy+Bruno >> Kane+Son?

    Mendy
    TAA. Shaw. Coady
    Salah. Bruno. Gundog. Lingard
    Vardy. DCL. Iheanacho
    (Forster, Jota, Holding, Rudiger)

    1. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Why now ?

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        I thought the double was on 37. I was misinformed

  23. TVPlugSockets
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Saved my bench boost and I can’t even field 11 players at the moment. Going to need some smart changes going forward

  24. FPL AXE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Am I reading these updates correct that basically Ben Crellins predictions for that DGW 35 are not right? He's aweosme by the way so I'm not complaining before anybody jumps on that train!

    1. @persecuted_by_mods
      5 years, 3 months ago

      We don't have the full picture to know if he was 100% right or not, because we don't know how fpl will move the deadlines even though we know where the fixtures are landing date wise

      1. FPL AXE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Understood. Cheers

    2. FPL AXE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      I see he's actually just reposted an update....what an absolute legend!

    3. Bury94
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      We still don't really know, it depends on how FPL decide to arrange the GWs

  25. drughi
    • 16 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Digne anyone ? Fixtures looks good plus double or is castagne better pick

  26. Here is Cash, give McGinn
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Play 1

    A) TAA
    B) Holding
    C) Jota

    1. Abra Dubravka
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      A

  27. @persecuted_by_mods
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Ben has just confirmed that he doesn't know, and the reason he doesn't know is because it depends on the deadlines moving or not

  28. Bobby Crush
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    GTG?

    Mendy
    TAA, Keane, Castagne
    Saka, Son, Havertz, Jota, Lingard
    Vardy, Kane (c)
    --
    Vydra, Rudiger, Phillips
    No FT.