Our frisk of the fixtures sees us assess the Premier League clubs and players with the weakest runs of league matches over the coming weeks – in theory, at least. This is the other side of last week’s focus on the strongest fixture runs.
The primary focus in this article will be on a six-Gameweek lookahead but we will scrutinise the shorter and longer-term prospects where appropriate.
Our colour-coded Season Ticker is the primary source for this piece; using this tool as a Premium Member, you can sort by difficulty, rank by attacking and defensive potential or find budget rotation pairings. You can also set your own difficulty ratings, should you disagree with our own.
WORST FIXTURES
EVERTON
Next six: mci | bre | LIV | ARS | cry | che
Since picking up a point at Manchester United in Gameweek 7, Everton seem to have slightly lost their way. Consecutive home defeats to West Ham United and Watford were followed by a loss at Wolverhampton Wanderers, with their run of ‘W’ opponents mercifully ended by a 0-0 stalemate against Tottenham Hotspur. Things have been tougher without Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£8.0m) up front and Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.4m) in midfield, both of whom had very good early season form.
It could get worse before getting better, at least on paper. The supreme opposition trio of Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea are split by meetings with two of the league’s most in-form sides – Arsenal (h) and Crystal Palace (a). Hosting the Gunners pits Rafael Benitez’s men against a defence that have kept five clean sheets from their last eight matches, whereas Crystal Palace’s back line is even more impressive – despite already having tough trips to each of the top four, the Eagles have the league’s second-best expected goals conceded (xGC) figure.
A trip to similarly out-of-form Brentford could prove fruitful for Everton, although the Bees will see it the same way.
WATFORD
Next six: MUN | lei | CHE | MCI | bre | bur
The Hornets’ fantastic comeback win at Everton looks mis-placed amongst their last six results. Entering the 78th minute, the hosts were leading 2-1 and looking to close the game, until Watford’s four-goal blitz ended the game 5-2. Without that victory, Claudio Ranieri’s side would find themselves in the bottom three but their two-point gap over Burnley could soon disappear regardless, considering both teams’ contrasting fixture runs.
The newly-promoted side are against Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City in upcoming home matches, travelling to last season’s fifth-placed Leicester City in-between. Watford’s only players with over 5% ownership are cheap striker Emmanuel Dennis (£5.2m), the much-sold Ismaila Sarr (£6.1m) and bargain Ben Foster (£4.1m) – a goalkeeper that hasn’t yet kept a clean sheet, as his defence have allowed the third-most shots since his Gameweek 5 recall.
Beyond these four, there are calmer seas ahead for Watford, facing only two of 2020/21’s top six until Gameweek 31. This could add appeal to Dennis, Sarr and Joshua King (£5.6m) but their fight against another relegation will still be difficult.
ARSENAL
Next six: liv | NEW | mun | eve | SOU | WHU
The great form of Mikel Arteta’s side isn’t restricted to defensive assets like Aaron Ramsdale (£4.7m) and Ben White (£4.4m). They have the league’s longest unbeaten run as, unlike Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea, the Gunners are without a defeat in eight matches and have won six of them. Fixtures are about to turn, as Saturday’s trip to Liverpool and Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) could immediately end the streak. They could be boosted by potential injuries to Sadio Mane (£11.9m) and Andrew Robertson (£7.0m) but Arsenal have only won one of their last 12 league meetings and that was a late-season formality once Liverpool had already wrapped up the title.
The fixture ticker defines Man Utd (a), Everton (a) and West Ham (h) as difficult red matches but FPL owners of Emile Smith-Rowe (£5.8m) and Bukayo Saka (£6.3m) will not be in a rush to sell. Both scored and assisted for England in San Marino, with Smith-Rowe in tantalising league form having netted in three successive matches and gained enough new managers to rise £0.4m in value during this time. Hosting Newcastle United in Gameweek 13 looks promising but uncertainty lingers, having not yet seen the effect of new manager Eddie Howe.
LEEDS UNITED
Next six: tot | bha | CRY | BRE | che | mci
Recent results have resurrected the mini-slump of Marcelo Bielsa’s side – two wins and two draws from their last five matches. Looking ahead at future opponents, those were vital victories, as trips to Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Man City are amongst their next six. Antonio Conte will have his North Londoners ready to start a new era, especially against a defence that has conceded the third-most shots on target.
The trio of games between these are what may stop Raphinha‘s (£6.6m) owners from selling, as the fantastic Brazilian has scored four times in his last six appearances. It just might be worth having a good fourth and/or fifth defender to cover his tougher outings. The injury to Patrick Bamford (£7.7m) has undoubtedly affected their season and not many defensive options hold appeal either, although it must be added that during Diego Llorente‘s (£4.5m) last 15 appearances lasting over 60 minutes – Leeds have only once conceded multiple goals.
WEST HAM UNITED
Next six: wol | mci | BHA | CHE | bur | ars
The league’s most in-form side is about to be confronted by a fairly tough run of fixtures. Consecutive wins over Everton, Spurs, Aston Villa and Liverpool have seen David Moyes’ team leapfrog the latter into third place. It’s the reason why Michail Antonio (£8.2m) is still gaining owners, despite scoring just once from his last five games. The Hammers simply look brilliant, as Jarrod Bowen (£6.3m) has stepped up to the plate during recent weeks.
Five of the next six meetings are with sides currently in the top eight, travelling to face Wolverhampton Wanderers, Man City and Arsenal. The home clash against Brighton and Hove Albion pits them against a side whom they’ve never beaten in the Premier League (from eight attempts) and the fourth-best defence for preventing shots on target. League leaders Chelsea are quite good too.
Things do immediately get better after this fixture run but expect Said Benrahma (£6.4m) to be a forgotten FPL asset by that point.
ALSO CONSIDER…
Very little stands out from the rest of the pack, although Wolves do face Liverpool (h) and Man City (a) back-to-back in Gameweeks 15 and 16.
It’s similar for Aston Villa, where Man City (h) and Leicester (h) precede new manager Steven Gerrard’s return to Liverpool in Gameweek 16.
READ MORE ON OUR SISTER SITE: Fixtures and form: Teams to target
