Spot the Differential

Three budget FPL differentials to consider for Gameweek 13 and beyond

Gameweek 13 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned and somewhat unfashionable picks at Watford, Brighton and Hove Albion and Burnley who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

JOSHUA KING

  • FPL ownership: 4.1%
  • Price: £5.6m
  • GW13-17 fixtures: lei | CHE | MCI | bre | bur

Joshua King (£5.6m) has slotted seamlessly into Watford’s attack this season, and has particularly impressed following the arrival of Claudio Ranieri.

Despite a disappointing loan spell at Everton last term, where he could only find 138 Premier League minutes, he has since thrived as the Hornets main centre-forward. Prior to Ranieri’s appointment, he assisted three times against Norwich City and Newcastle United, and has followed that up with four goals in four games under the Italian, including a hat-trick at Goodison Park. It could have been more, too, as he won the opening penalty against Manchester United last weekend, only for Ismaila Sarr (£6.0m) to miss.

Notably, over the last four Gameweeks no player in any position – not even Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) – can better him for goal attempts (17) or big chances (seven), while only the Egyptian has more penalty box touches in that time.

Life at Vicarage Road has been anything but dull since Ranieri’s arrival. In his five games in charge, Watford have scored nine goals and conceded 10, with a visit to a Leicester City side up next who have failed to keep a single clean sheet since the opening day. In fact, the Foxes’ 21 goals conceded is the joint-third worst in the division, while the expected goals (xG) tally is only slightly better. The schedule to follow is admittedly tough, but eases from Gameweek 16 onwards, with games against Brentford (a), Burnley (a), Crystal Palace (h), Wolverhampton Wanderers (a) and West Ham United (h) before the end of the year.

King has delivered a string of impressive displays of late, and given his appealing longer-term schedule, could be the pick of the budget forwards over the festive period.

TARIQ LAMPTEY

Why Duffy was benched and Foden’s fine form: FPL notes from Brighton v Man City 2
  • FPL ownership: 0.8%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW13-17 fixtures: LEE | whu | sou | TOT | WOL

Tariq Lamptey (£4.4m) has been Brighton and Hove Albion’s stand-out performer since returning from injury, and was unlucky not to get on the scoresheet against Aston Villa last weekend, when he was denied by a fine save from Emiliano Martinez (£5.5m).

The youngster was substituted late on, with Villa scoring twice soon after his departure, as Graham Potter continues to manage his recovery following his long-term hamstring problem. As a result, he surely won’t start every game in December, but providing you have a strong bench, it shouldn’t be too much of an issue, especially given his budget price tag.

Lamptey’s positioning since returning from injury has been hugely encouraging, playing very far up the right flank and often hugging the touchline. Because of that, since making his first start in Gameweek 11, amongst all defenders, only Reece James (£6.1m) and Ben Chilwell (£6.0m) have touched the ball more often in the opponent’s penalty area, with his four shots in the box only bettered by Chelsea’s wing-backs and team-mate Antonio Rudiger (£5.9m).

Albion now face a Leeds United side who have struggled in attack all season, scoring just seven Premier League goals in seven games in the absence of Patrick Bamford (£7.7m). Encouragingly, for those considering investing, their meeting with Marcelo Bielsa’s side marks a reasonably favourable run, too, with matches against Southampton (a), Wolverhampton Wanderers (h) and Brentford (h) in the coming weeks.

Lamptey has been a real threat down the wing for Brighton in recent matches, and with an ownership of just 0.8%, could be an effective defensive differential.

CHRIS WOOD

Scout Notes 4
  • FPL ownership: 1.3%
  • Price: £6.7m
  • GW13-17 fixtures: TOT | wol | new | WHU | WAT

Chris Wood (£6.7m) may have had a slow start to the season, but has now netted two goals in his last three appearances.

The New Zealand international has been a model of consistency since joining Burnley from Leeds United back in August 2017, scoring at least 10 goals in each of his four top-flight campaigns.

This season, he has posted team-leading totals for goal attempts, shots in the box, efforts on target, big chances and penalty area touches, while his performances over the last three Gameweeks have helped his team beat Brentford and take points from in-form Chelsea and Crystal Palace. That’s coincided with Wood and Maxwel Cornet (£6.1m) being paired together up front, a period which has seen Sean Dyche’s side score more goals than any other team bar Liverpool.

Looking ahead to Gameweek 13, Wood could find some joy against a Tottenham Hotspur backline which is still adapting to a new style of play under Antonio Conte, while fixtures to follow against Wolverhampton Wanderers (a), Newcastle United (a), West Ham United (h) and Watford (h) offer further encouragement that he can kick-on.

Burnley appear to have moved up a gear in recent weeks, with more confidence on the ball, and given that Wood has scored two in his last three, could be a nice differential pick for our frontlines.


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avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/818/history”

1,032 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Calculated Risks
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 days, 5 hours ago

    Ramsdale
    Trent, James, Cancelo
    Salah, Jota, Son, Gallagher, ESR
    Jimi, Jesus

    Livra, Marcal, Davis

    Gonna do Marcal to Rudiger next week as it's not worth minus 4 this week is it?

    1. Mr Ozil
      • 7 Years
      6 days, 5 hours ago

      With your team, its definitely not worth it.
      Do you think Jesus will start this GW?

      I desperately need him to start this gameweek

      1. Calculated Risks
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        6 days, 5 hours ago

        I think so, I've been to a few games at the Etihad this season and he has worked his little socks off and been far better than Mahrez and Sterling...think he is well regarded by Pep atm and has had his rest now missing last week and coming on as sub midweek.

    2. The 12th Man
      • 8 Years
      6 days, 5 hours ago

      Nice team. Get Rudiger next week.

  2. abaalan
    • 5 Years
    6 days, 5 hours ago

    Ramsdale, foster
    TAA, Cancelo, Rudiger, Livra, Lowton
    Jota, Salah, Son, Raphinha, D. Luiz
    Wilson, Antonio, Jimenez
    1 FT, 0.3 itb

    A. Roll ft (means playing Antonio)
    B. Antonio -> benteke / king / pukki
    C. Antonio + lowton -> 6.9 fwd + Alonso -4

    1. Mr Ozil
      • 7 Years
      6 days, 5 hours ago

      Which formation are you planning to go with this gameweek?

  3. EL tridente
    • 4 Years
    6 days, 5 hours ago

    How is this team looking? Should Antonio start?
    Sanchez, (Steele)
    James, TAA, Rüdiger, Cancelo, (Williams)
    Salah, ESR, Raphinha, Gallagher (Allan)
    Kane, Toney, (Antonio)

    1. CONNERS
      • 2 Years
      6 days, 5 hours ago

      No, I think you have the team set correctly as is.

    2. The 12th Man
      • 8 Years
      6 days, 5 hours ago

      Good, leave as is.

  4. CONNERS
    • 2 Years
    6 days, 5 hours ago

    Morning

    Would you get Alonso in for Chilwell (for a hit) or play Antonio? (Livra is my only playing sub).

    Sa
    TAA - Cancelo - Dias
    Salah - Son - Gallagher - ESR - Gilmour
    Vardy - Antonio

    Steele / Livra - Chilwell* - Street*

    1. The 12th Man
      • 8 Years
      6 days, 5 hours ago

      I’d just play Antonio this week.

    2. CONNERS
      • 2 Years
      6 days, 5 hours ago

      Thanks.

    3. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 9 Years
      6 days, 5 hours ago

      Same dilemma. Probably playing Antonio and hold Chilwell to Alonso move for a week.

    4. ebb2sparky
      • 11 Years
      6 days, 5 hours ago

      I'd probably wait. Only concern I'd have is vardy. Do you think he'll play 3 prem games in a week? If not, will you sell him next game week using your FT? If you're going to do that then a hit this week is more appealing than a hit next week.

    5. CONNERS
      • 2 Years
      6 days, 4 hours ago

      I will get Alonso in for Chilwell next GW so should have cover in case Vardy is rested.

    6. CONNERS
      • 2 Years
      6 days, 4 hours ago

      Thanks all

  5. The 12th Man
    • 8 Years
    6 days, 5 hours ago

    Gtg?
    Guaita
    TAA,Cancelo,James
    Salah(c),Raphinha,ESR,Gallagher
    Ronaldo,Vardy,Toney

    Gunn,White,Gilmour, Livramento 0.1m itb 1FT

    I’ve decided to hold Ronaldo and maybe downgrade Vardy next week if he flops again.

    1. CONNERS
      • 2 Years
      6 days, 5 hours ago

      Yep - decided to keep Ron then?

      1. The 12th Man
        • 8 Years
        6 days, 5 hours ago

        Reluctantly.
        2 FTs next week with more of an idea where to use them is probably the wiser move. Plus it probably saves 2 FTs if I want CR7 back.

        Vardy is on thin ice. Need the funds to get One of Alonso/Jota or Foden next week.

    2. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 9 Years
      6 days, 5 hours ago

      Yep

    3. CONNERS
      • 2 Years
      6 days, 5 hours ago

      Sorry, just re-read your post. Probably sensible to hold now given United's run of fixtures coming up.

  6. NABIL - FPL otai
    • 9 Years
    6 days, 5 hours ago

    Head says keep Foden.

    Heart says ditch him for Jota for free this week.

    I hate this feeling.

    1. el polako
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      6 days, 5 hours ago

      Just do whatever your missus says.

      1. NABIL - FPL otai
        • 9 Years
        6 days, 5 hours ago

        She asked me to quit the game, for my mental health.

        Should I take a hit?

        1. Cok3y5murf
          • 5 Years
          6 days, 5 hours ago

          Sell her for a hit

          1. NABIL - FPL otai
            • 9 Years
            6 days, 4 hours ago

            No way, currently loving the structure i e bottom heavy.

            1. el polako
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              6 days, 4 hours ago

              Can't blame you, who dosent feel great when going big at back ends with lots of joy.

  7. DagheMunegu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    6 days, 5 hours ago

    Is this WC any good?

    Ramsdale Gunnarson
    TAA Cancelo James Alonso Livra
    Salah Foden Jota Gallagher ESR
    Kane King Davis

    0.2 itb to bring Ronaldo later

    1. CONNERS
      • 2 Years
      6 days, 5 hours ago

      Looks good to me.

    2. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 9 Years
      6 days, 5 hours ago

      Good Kane team. I prefer Son though

  8. Little Red Lacazette
    • 5 Years
    6 days, 5 hours ago

    1FT. 0.0ITB

    A. Roll FT
    B. Tonio -> Jimi

    Guaita
    TAA Cancelo James
    Salah Son Foden Gallagher Jota
    Antonio Wilson

    Carson White Livramento Davis

    1. Disturbed
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 days, 5 hours ago

      A

    2. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 9 Years
      6 days, 5 hours ago

      That midfield! I'm going to get it next GW I don't care, but ESR instead of Gallagher.

      I'd roll

    3. CONNERS
      • 2 Years
      6 days, 4 hours ago

      I'd roll it - you'll probably end up wanting Antonio back in a couple of weeks if you sell him.

    4. Little Red Lacazette
      • 5 Years
      6 days, 4 hours ago

      Cheers all

  9. unitednations
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 days, 5 hours ago

    Morning dzz, was all set to do Toney >> Jota using my 2fts and exact funds. but last minute opted to take out Antonio instead coz i really want the possibility of Alonso in gw14. high risk move, hopefully it pays off

    Ramsdale
    Taa James Cancelo --- Duffy Livramento
    Salah Jota Foden Jota Mbeumo
    Kane Toney -- Davies

    A: 0.1 short of Duffy >> Alonso..so foster >> 3.9m to get the 0.1m
    B: Livramento >> Alonso
    C: Duffy >> Reguillon for a few gw's who then becomes shaw

  10. tibollom
    • 5 Years
    6 days, 5 hours ago

    morning guys, G2G or get rid of Foden? 1 FT 0 ITB

    Guaita
    TAA James Cancelo
    Salah(c) ESR Raph Foden Son
    Dennis Wilson

    Foster Antonio Livra Johnson

    1. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 9 Years
      6 days, 4 hours ago

      Gtg

      I like your attacking pair - Dennis the menace and Mr. Wilsooonnn

      1. tibollom
        • 5 Years
        6 days, 4 hours ago

        ahah hadnt thought about that hope it brings me luck! So keep Foden you think?

        1. NABIL - FPL otai
          • 9 Years
          6 days, 4 hours ago

          It's the safe move. Let's jinx Jota

    2. Ëð
      • 6 Years
      6 days, 4 hours ago

      G2G

  11. ebb2sparky
    • 11 Years
    6 days, 5 hours ago

    Who do you think will score more in say the next 10 gameweeks, Gallagher or ESR?

    ESR seems a slightly safer option but I'm leaning towards Gallagher.

    1. GreennRed
      • 10 Years
      6 days, 4 hours ago

      Gallagher. ESR form has dipped a bit. Hopefully he'll find it v Toon.

      1. Mr. O'Connell
        • 9 Years
        6 days, 4 hours ago

        Form has dipped = played Liverpool last week.

        4 goals and 2 assists in last 5 for club and country.

    2. Ëð
      • 6 Years
      6 days, 4 hours ago

      Gallagher

  12. Hansel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 days, 4 hours ago

    A) Rudiger -> James, next week White -> Reguilon or Mbuemo -> Gallagher
    B) Armstrong -> Benteke, bench Antonio. Next week same moves as in A
    C) Antonio -> Benteke, next week Omo -> James (lose 0.3 on Antonio)

    WC likely gw16. 1.3ITB

    Sanchez
    Trent Cancelo Rudiger White
    Salah Jota Raphinha Mbuemo
    Kane Antonio

    Steele Gilmour Armstrong Omo

    1. GreennRed
      • 10 Years
      6 days, 4 hours ago

      B.

    2. Ëð
      • 6 Years
      6 days, 4 hours ago

      A

    3. CMIUK (Catch Me If U Kane)
      • 4 Years
      6 days, 3 hours ago

      B

  13. DAZZ
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 days, 4 hours ago

    Would be vintage FPL for Foden to haul this week 🙂 keep selling

    1. el polako
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      6 days, 4 hours ago

      And Jota to catch the bug.

  14. Trovsmash
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 days, 4 hours ago

    Hi DZ, what to do here? 2 ft's .3 itb, any thoughts?

    A. GK transfer
    B. Look to get Jota in
    C. One of Son or Kane in?
    D. Something else

    Foster
    James, TAA, Cancelo, Dias
    ESR, Salah, Raph, Foden, Salah
    Toney, Vardy

    Antonio, Livra, Brownhill, Raya

    1. el polako
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      6 days, 4 hours ago

      Sell one of the Salah's.

      1. Trovsmash
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 days, 4 hours ago

        Valid point, let me try again.

        Foster
        James, TAA, Cancelo, Dias
        ESR, Salah, Raph, Foden
        Toney, Vardy

        Antonio, Livra, Brownhill, Raya

        1. el polako
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          6 days, 4 hours ago

          Nothing really wrong with this team, I would personally transfer out Raya to have cover should something happen to Foster.
          Unless you still got your 1st WC to play, then I would burn a transfer or look for 1-2 weeks punt differential.

  15. Ëð
    • 6 Years
    6 days, 4 hours ago

    G2G? No hits needed? £0 ITB

    Sanchez
    TAA, James, White
    Salah (c), Foden, Jota, Raphinha
    Ronaldo, Antonio, Toney

    (Foster, Amartey, Bissouma, Livramento)

    1. CMIUK (Catch Me If U Kane)
      • 4 Years
      6 days, 3 hours ago

      Gtg

  16. CMIUK (Catch Me If U Kane)
    • 4 Years
    6 days, 3 hours ago

    Ramsdale
    Taa Cancelo James Rudiger
    Salah(c) Jota Gallagher Mbeumo
    Kane Toney

    Steele Antonio Sissoko Livramento

    0fts 0.5 itb

    Gtg?

  17. Bojack Horseman
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    5 days, 23 hours ago

    One of the best articles FFS does.

  18. Fpl_Ludwig
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    5 days, 20 hours ago

    G2G?
    Wan’t to start Reguilon but don’t know who to bench, any thoughts?

    Sanchez
    TAA - James - Cancelo
    Salah - Son - Gallagher - Bernardo - ESR
    Toney - Jimenez

    Bench: Steele - Reguilon - Duffy - Wilson