As if you hadn’t heard already, Brighton and Hove Albion and Manchester United will both have a Double Gameweek 25 after their previously postponed Premier League clash was rescheduled for mid-February.
In this first instalment of a two-part Scouting the Doubles, we look at the pick of the Seagulls’ players for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) and weigh up the pros and cons of investment in the south coast club.
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BUYING BRIGHTON PLAYERS FOR DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 25: THE PROS
DECENT FIXTURES DURING AND AFTER THE DOUBLE GAMEWEEK
As is the case with United, buying Brighton players needn’t be seen as a one-week-only punt.
You’ll get at least three decent fixtures after Double Gameweek 25, with the possibility of a fourth if the outstanding home match against Tottenham Hotspur is accommodated in Double Gameweek 28.
As for their Double Gameweek 25 opponents, Watford have kept only one clean sheet all season and Manchester United have laboured to one shut-out in seven matches, conceding to the likes of Burnley, Wolves and Newcastle along the way. David de Gea (£5.3m) has been the busiest goalkeeper in the division over that spell, to provide further encouragement to Brighton’s attacking assets.
And despite their offensive qualities, the Hornets only scored four goals in Claudio Ranieri’s final six matches in charge and none in Roy Hodgson’s first two fixtures at the helm.
IN GOOD FORM
After going three months without a win up until Boxing Day, Albion have won two and drawn four of their last six league matches.
The performances have particularly caught the eye, as well, with Graham Potter’s troops outplaying Chelsea twice home and away and dominating Crystal Palace in the M23 derby.
The Seagulls came back to draw against Leicester in Gameweek 23, too, finishing the game strongly to such an extent that their hosts were left hanging on for a point.
STRONG UNDERLYING NUMBERS…
Above: Teams sorted by expected goals conceded (xGC) in 2021/22.
A respectable if unremarkable 13th for Opta’s expected goals (xG) in 2021/22, Albion really come into their own at the other end of the pitch: the Seagulls have a lower expected goals conceded (xGC) tally than all bar the top three.
Over the last six matches, Potter’s troops are similarly 10th and fourth respectively for xG and xGC.
Brighton are also an impressive fifth for the fewest actual goals conceded this season. Only once, against Manchester City, have they conceded more than two goals in a single game.
BUYING BRIGHTON PLAYERS FOR DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 25: THE CONS
…AND AN INABILITY TO CONVERT UNDERLYING NUMBERS INTO FPL RETURNS
“Underlying numbers, schmunderlying schmumbers”, we hear you say. The xG-lovers’ favourite team in 2020/21, Brighton made a habit out of posting great figures for everything but FPL attacking returns and clean sheets.
According to Opta, Potter’s side conceded 10.14 more and scored 11.46 fewer goals than they ought to have last season – unsurprisingly, both of those figures were among the division’s worst in terms of underachievement.
It’s not quite been the same ridiculous story this time around, with their totals for xGC (23.70) and actual goals conceded (23) more or less the same.
Still, the nearly-men of Albion have got an annoying habit of conceding exactly one goal in a match, doing so in 11 of their 22 Premier League fixtures to deprive FPL managers of more clean sheets than the six they have.
Above: Teams sorted by expected goals delta (xG delta) in 2021/22. xG delta is the difference between xG and actual goals scored.
At the other end of the pitch, it’s a continuation of a theme from 2020/21 in which Albion haven’t been able to turn their dominance into more goals.
Only Norwich and Burnley have a worse shots-to-goals conversion rate than Brighton (8.2%) this season.
ROTATION RISK
When Potter first arrived at Brighton, he had a bit of a reputation for tinkering – some would say too much – with his starting XI. The rotation has died down a bit since then but the ballet-loving boss is still capable of making surprise team selection calls, especially in periods of fixture congestion and with a full squad at his disposal.
Leandro Trossard (£6.0m) and Neal Maupay (£6.5m) saw bench duty in Double Gameweek 22 as the return to fitness of Danny Welbeck (£5.9m) allowed Potter an opportunity to make alterations up top.
Maupay also had three successive benchings in Gameweeks 10-12, with Trossard playing as a false nine.
Mainly, though, we refer to Tariq Lamptey (£4.5m) in this section.
The right-back returned from a lengthy hamstring injury as a substitute in Gameweek 8 but is still having his minutes managed three months on, seeing bench duty in three of the last four matches.
In neither of Brighton’s two previous instances of playing three games in seven days has Lamptey started all three fixtures.
“There is still a little bit of managing his minutes. And after Chelsea (last Tuesday), a high-intensity game, stretching the backline a lot, we needed a big effort to go again.
“Sometimes we try to see is it the start of the game or the back end. We chose this time for the back end and I thought he had a good impact coming on.” – Brighton coach Bjorn Hamberg, speaking after Gameweek 23
After a winter littered with players unavailable due to injury, illness or international duty, Potter should have a nearly fully fit squad to choose from for Albion’s three Gameweek 25/26 fixtures, which are separated by just a week.
