Spot the Differential
11 March 2022 760 comments
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Gameweek 29 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Arsenal, Everton and Liverpool, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

GABRIEL MARTINELLI

FPL Gameweek 17 review: Martinelli update, bargain Broja and Antonio's blank
  • FPL ownership: 2.8%
  • Price: £5.3m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: LEI + LIV | avl | cry | BHA | sou

Gabriel Martinelli (£5.3m) is back on the Fantasy radar after netting at Watford on Sunday.

Now, the cut-price midfielder presents an intriguing differential to Bukayo Saka (£6.6m), not least because his minutes-per-expected goal involvement (xGI) figure is better than all of the other Arsenal midfield regulars in 2021/22.

It’s also worth noting that Martinelli has an identical minutes-per-points average as Saka (15.7), which isn’t bad considering he costs £1.3m less, while his seven big chances from Gameweek 13 onwards is only bettered by Alexandre Lacazette (£8.3m) amongst team-mates.

Positional rival Emile Smith Rowe (£5.8m) will presumably be free from Covid-19 in time for the weekend, but Martinelli has started each of the last 11 Premier League matches he has been available for, producing four goals and two assists, which is encouraging for those backing the Brazilian winger to shine.

As for Arsenal, they have won their last four Premier League matches in a row, and now take on Leicester City (h) and Liverpool (h) in Gameweek 29, before facing Aston Villa (a), Crystal Palace (a) and Brighton and Hove Albion (h). In fact, their schedule right through until the end of the season is favourable, with two more as-yet-unannounced Double Gameweeks to fit in somewhere.

Martinelli offers a budget route into Arsenal’s attack for this double-header, and could be a useful differential in the coming weeks too.

DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN

Five-time top 1k FPL finisher Tom Freeman on Calvert-Lewin, Wolves and his Gameweek 2 plans 6
  • FPL ownership: 3.1%
  • Price: £7.7m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: WOL + NEW | – | whu | MUN | –

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.7m) has struggled for form since returning from injury, but now faces back-to-back home matches against Wolverhampton Wanderers and Newcastle United in Double Gameweek 29.

Everton’s problematic away form continued at Tottenham Hotspur on Monday, but it is worth noting that their Goodison Park performances under Frank Lampard have generally been good.

The former Chelsea man oversaw a convincing 3-0 victory over Leeds United in his first Premier League home fixture last month, seven days after beginning his reign with a comprehensive Goodison FA Cup success (4-1) against Brentford. Events conspired against them versus Manchester City in Gameweek 27, but there were many positives to take from their display.

As for Calvert-Lewin, he started the 2021/22 campaign in good form, scoring in each of the opening three Gameweeks, but then early momentum was halted after an injury that saw him sidelined up until January. Since his return, the England international has failed to find the back of the net in his six appearances, but has racked up 12 shots in the box, two big chances and 1.99 expected goals (xG), all team-leading totals.

Given their position – they are currently one place and one point above the relegation zone – these two home matches are crucial for Everton, and if they are to get back on track, there is a decent chance Calvert-Lewin will be central to it.

LUIS DIAZ

Returning Sarr among the FPL differentials for Double Gameweek 26
  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £8.0m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: bha + ars | – | WAT | mci | avl

Luis Diaz (£8.0m) has hit the ground running at Liverpool following his January move from Porto.

Since making his first Premier League start in Gameweek 24, the Colombian winger has racked up 17 goal attempts, 11 shots in the box, five efforts on target, two big chances and 37 penalty area touches. He has also created nine chances, whilst amongst all team-mates, only Mohamed Salah (£13.2m) has received more passes in the final third.

At this stage, we should emphasise the rotation risk associated with the player. With Roberto Firmino (£8.7m) nearing a return to action, it’s at least five players competing for three spots in attack, perhaps leaving the likes of Diaz and Diogo Jota (£8.3m), maybe even premium option Sadio Mane (£11.7m), open to a spot of rotation. However, Diaz’s ability on the pitch has been clear for all to see, and if he were to get 120-ish minutes across the two matches, that could be enough for him to haul.

Liverpool return to Premier League action in Double Gameweek 29 when they visit Brighton and Hove Albion and Arsenal, as they aim to keep the pressure on table-toppers Manchester City. That’s followed by a Gameweek 30 blank, although they do have an appealing Anfield encounter against Watford to follow. For those looking further ahead, the Reds will also have another Double Gameweek to come between now and the end of the season.

Adding Diaz to Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.5m) and Salah – both of whom are locked into most Fantasy sides – is an appealing move this week, and could pay off given Liverpool’s attacking firepower.

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  1. Erez Avni
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Bench one:

    A. Watkins
    B. Digne
    C. Broja

    1. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Digne

    2. No Kane No Gain
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Digne. Even sell for -4 for a doubler if you felt cheeky

    3. Red Red Robins
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      D

      1. Red Red Robins
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Ugh, i mean Digne

  2. grennans2
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Dubravka - Ramsdale
    TAA - James - Rudi - T. Silva - Kilman
    Salah - Fraser - Kulu - Gordon - Raph
    Kane - Adams - Broja

    Thinking of playing BB this week. Best option from the below considering this?

    A) James > Robbo (free)
    B) James & Adams > Robbo & Lacazette (-4)
    C) James & Fraser/Raph > Robbo & Saka (-4)
    D) James, Raph & Adams > Robbo, Saka & Lacazette (-8)

    1. Leeds-Utd
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Similar to my team..
      Probably go with
      D and B.B.

    2. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I like the look of C

    3. FPL Polarbear
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Not afraid Kilman get benched?

  3. PascalCygan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Another red arrow

    Changed Coady to Kilman last minute on wildcard. Now want rid.

    A) James + Kilman > Robbo + Doherty (-4)

    B) just James to Robbo for free

    ML rival is taking -8 this week, so feel emboldened to take the -4 and bring in a Wolves defender next week

    1FT 2.0ITB
    Ramsdale
    TAA Rudiger James* White
    Salah Saka Kulu Raph
    Kane Jimi

    Dubravka Broja Ramsey Kilman

    Cheers!

    1. I am 42
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      you rate robbo than doc?

      you have 11 players next week?

      1. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        I have 9 for 30 now, will probably have 10

        Robbo and Doherty both in this week keeps it that way

  4. Pep Roulette
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    REPOST

    The ones supporting Kane TC, what's your reasoning? And the one's supporting Salah TC, what's yours?

    1. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      See last page

    2. DandyDon
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      salah as Pool are more consistent than Spurs. Could go either way. i think from an attacking point of view the fixtures are very similar for both clubs and both of course play brighton.

    3. Red Red Robins
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Id say Salah if i was TCing

    4. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I don't think it's close. It's Salah.

    5. Monty123
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Fine margins, but I think Manu's defence is worse than arsenaI and Kane is on fire whereas Salah has dipped slightly.

      Kulu is supporting Kane well as are the wingbacks, Salah has more firepower behind him. .

      As I said, fine margins.

  5. ILOVEBAPS
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Is Ramsey worth holding?

    Or would it be worth a hit to get either Matinelli or Gordon?

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Hold him

    2. Rassi
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Gordon very likely no, Martinelli maybe. Depends on your team, gw30 players, chips strategy etc.

      1. ILOVEBAPS
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Team looks pretty good. I’ll have 10 players if I keep Ramsey but he’s only 3 pats at best.

  6. Bubz
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Wish I owned Kane this week. Would probably TC him over Salah tbh. Form is much better. Only way of getting him is to sell Son though…

    1. Mr. O'Connell
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Hoping Son and Kulu can be involved in any points he gets

    2. ZimZalabim
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      BMB said he would sell son and Jimi for kulu and kane for a hit this week and said by gw30 with kane cap it would pay off in his opinion. Said this on the FPL Wire

      1. Bubz
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Yeah that’s tempting, I just posted exactly that below

    3. ILOVEBAPS
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      The obvious thing that will happen after all the Son sellers have taken hits is that both Salah, Kane & Kiki will blank and Son will haul.

      1. Bubz
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Yes very true. I have been excellent at selling massive point scorers this season (Sterling to Salah, Cash to Digne etc)

  7. Arteta
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Klopp: "We had a few little things but so far nobody is out of training. We have on top of that, how everywhere, COVID is not over, so these kind of things we have as well – or had. We will see how that's going on. We try absolutely everything to avoid this but it's obviously not really possible. Players or staff who had it now have absolutely no symptoms, that's good but they cannot be involved. We will see. They come later today, so we train a bit later, they're not here yet. And so far I didn’t get any news. Injury-wise, I think they all should be ready."

    1. footballcandy
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      lol.. impossible to get anything from that

      "PLAYERS or staff who have had it NOW...." is they sentence here. At least 1 x player have had it NOW... but who...

      1. footballcandy
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        *they = key*

      2. Biggsy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        "so far nobody is out of training"

        "And so far I didn’t get any news. Injury-wise, I think they all should be ready"

        Neither of these are the words of someone who knows he has a player missing

        1. Biggsy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Crucial thing being "knows"

      3. Arteta
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Van Dijk, Konate, Alcantara weren't in the training pics yesterday.

    2. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Are we going to see Matip and Gomez together?

      1. Arteta
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Quite possibly.

  8. ZimZalabim
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    sell one
    A. Coutinho
    B. Raph

    Buy one
    1. Martinelli
    2. Kulu

    Own Saka and will get Kane in this week as well.

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Keep both

      1. ZimZalabim
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        need 0.2 to get Kane in so have to sell one

        The only other way to fund it would be Dennis to a 5.5 striker and they are all stinkers so I think selling one of these two for a better replacement makes more sense.

        Or what would you suggest ?

        1. Biggsy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Dennis to a 4.5 striker, play 3-5-2 and no worry that your 4.5 striker is a stinker?

          1. ZimZalabim
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            its worth a look tbf but I do have williams on my bench so it would weaken my bench a fair amount, do you not feel leeds poor form or villa tough fixtures makes selling one of coutinho or raph a better move specially when the replacments give me an extra fixture over the next two ?

    2. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      B1

    3. Leeds-Utd
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Sell Raph
      Buy Martinelli

    4. Harvey_27
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      B1 but be prepared to be disappointed!

    5. ZimZalabim
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Cheers all

  9. DA Minnion (Former great)
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    How does this wildcard look for this and next week and beyond?

    Dubravka Raya
    Trent Doherty White( Cash Johnson)
    Salah Saka Martinelli Kulu Mane
    Kane Toney (Gelhart)

    10 doubles this week
    11 starters next week.
    Any thoughts welcome.

    1. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Like it. Minor point but how likely is Johnson to play?

  10. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Anybody with jwp still keeping him for one more week?

  11. FPL_Crisis
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Noooooo
    I came on here asking for advice whether to sell Cancelo, now looks like I gotta sell VVD instead. Sheeet

    1. BeWater
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Didn't hear anything about VVD. I nearly bought him last night to beat the rise.

      1. FPL_Crisis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Saw on Twitter a few ppl saying VVD Thiago Konate, trying to dig a bit further

    2. FPL Brains
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Crazy times bro.

    3. ZimZalabim
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      as its the early game id wait till the last min incase there is leaked team news

    4. Fish up a tree
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      What’s wrong with him?

      1. GENERATION X
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Probably CoVVD

  12. BeWater
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Really could do with Cancelo playing this GW.

    1. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Same. Would rather not have King coming in.

      Pep was pretty cryptic as usual, but surely Cancelo will be feeling better by Monday!

      1. BeWater
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        The Monday kick off makes me feel slightly more hopeful.

  13. Bubz
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Following on from my last post… would Son + Jiminez —> Kane(TC) + Kulusevski (-4) be worth it I wonder….?

    1. FPL Brains
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Yh

    2. Rassi
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Could be but I would probably roll my ft instead.

      1. Bubz
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        I’d do James to Robertson otherwise

        1. Rassi
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          That is a solid move.

        2. OptimusBlack
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          This

    3. WVA
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Would rather TC Son

      1. Bubz
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Why’s that?

        1. WVA
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Look at his returns, Son is a phenomenal FPL asset, comfortably capable of outscoring Kane as he has done this season.

          1. Bubz
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            All about timing though… Now is Kane’s time I feel

            1. WVA
              • 9 Years
              3 years, 9 months ago

              It's always Sons time, one of the most consistent there is plus if Kane is on form Son scores points

              1. Bubz
                • 12 Years
                3 years, 9 months ago

                We shall see

    4. Red Red Robins
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I heard Mouras back? He has a chance of playing 1 game tbh
      But if set on Kane TC defo worth it

      1. Bubz
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Hmmm yes true that would be annoying

        1. Red Red Robins
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          I know the covid news but if Salah fit any thoughts on him TC?
          Maybe even Son, plus saves you -4

          1. Bubz
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            Yeah will probably TC salah if I don’t get Kane. I don’t trust Son

    5. how now brown cow
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I'm a pessimistic spurs fan I know, but weve been poor every other game, and the fixtures this week aren't great.

      1. Bubz
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        True, but what about Kane in particular… looking pretty good generally

        1. how now brown cow
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          He's back to his best, no doubt.

  14. FPL Brains
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    What you reckon?

    Ramsdale
    TAA - Robertson - James
    - Doherty
    Salah - Kulusevski - Havertz - Saka
    Kane (C) - Lacazette

    Bench: Cancelo - Ramsey

    Taken hits to get there after stupidly triggering early in the week.

    1. WVA
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Wow thats a seriously strong team

    2. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Looks strong

    3. Red Red Robins
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Thats a nice team!

    4. Taribo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      James on the bench for two weeks?

      1. FPL Brains
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Think so buddy.

        1. Red Red Robins
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Same, my 1st early tfr of the season was a -4 to get James in. Cant bring myself to do a -8 of James to Doc

          So sits on my bench for a few weeks now

          1. Red Red Robins
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            Just staring at me for 2weeks 'you just had to do an early tfr didnt you'

            1. FPL Brains
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 14 Years
              3 years, 9 months ago

              Haha I know right! I'm so pissed with myself.

  15. EL tridente
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Bench 2:
    A) Digne
    B) Jimenez
    C) Watkins
    D) Broja
    E) Coutinho

    1. FPL Brains
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      D and C

  16. footballcandy
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Matip nailed for both matches in 29....? Player of the month, Konate flagged and missed training, VVD rumours...

  17. Weerman
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Exact money to go James + Kilman -> Robertson + Amartey for -4. No brainer right?

  18. rnrd
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Leicester fans, why is Maddison’s gametime so little for the last two months?
    I understand the injury issues but he went from the absolute main man 2 months ago to a late-game substitute.

    Is he out of favor or is his gametime going to steadily increase until the end of the season?

  19. Malinwa
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Hi Legends, need some advice here. Really stuck.
    1FT - 1.0 itb

    Cancelo > Doherty?

    Lloris**
    Cancelo-TAA**-Livra-Rudiger
    Raph-Salah**-Saka**-Jota**
    Laca**-Adams

    Foster-White**-Bowen-Dennis

  20. teneighty
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Took my first hit of the season last week. Looking at a minus 8 this gameweek. Am I getting addicted? Is there a helpline I can call?

  21. ksmith5666
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    A or B?

    A) Son and Lacazette
    B) Kane and Odegaard / Martinelli

    1. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      B Mart

    2. antis0cial
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      B

  22. Saintjack01
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Tierney or gabriel

    1. CRAZY TRAIN
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Wondering the same, leaning towards Gabriel

  23. Babit1967
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Those with Mahrez, are you keeping?

    Nice wee differential but unsure how much minutes he’ll get with champions league games also.

  24. YoungPretender
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Dubravka
    TAA White Rudiger
    Saka Salah Willock Raphinha Kulu
    Kane Broja

    Sa Jimenez Digne Saiss

    A) Hold transfer and have 2 FT to get a full XI next week for free
    B) Digne > Doherty (bench Broja/Rudiger)
    C) Willock > Martinelli

  25. Nanoelektronicar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Would you go Willock to Kulusevski for a hit? I am not planning on using FH in 30, so I think it makes sense to make this hit in this week rather than in the next.

    1. OptimusBlack
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I Agree with u

  26. antis0cial
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    How many players do you plan on having gw 30? I have 2 FH still but have 8 for 30

    Ramsdale
    Digne Doherty
    Saka Bowen Son Kulu
    Watkins

    1. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      All you’re really missing is Kane, save the FH

  27. Sakib.jafar
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Kane or Salah for TC?

  28. ALIVE AND KICKING
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Bench Jimi or Cout?

    1. teneighty
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Jimi

      1. ALIVE AND KICKING
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Jimi it is

    2. ILOVEBAPS
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Jimi

      1. ALIVE AND KICKING
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Cheers Fella’s

    3. Rassi
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Coutinho. Everton are just so bad.

      1. ALIVE AND KICKING
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Are they both on pen’s?

        1. Rassi
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Jimenez should be. No idea about Coutinho. I would assume Ings has them but that is just a hunch.

          1. ALIVE AND KICKING
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            Cheers

  29. TeddiPonza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Is Broja injured?

  30. OptimusBlack
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    If you have Willock would u sell him for
    A- Raphina
    B- Martinelli
    C- Kulu
    D- Keep him for the double

    1. Nanoelektronicar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      If for free and you don't use FH 30 I would go C.

    2. ILOVEBAPS
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      B or C