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11 March 2022 11 comments
FPLMinister FPLMinister
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Living on a comfortable FPL-cloud with current OR being a lofty 316, I thought I would write a piece before it all comes crashing down. I have thoroughly enjoyed this season, obviously because of the rank, but also because it has helped to have a nice focus while covid problems seemed to last an eternity. Like many reading on here, I do enjoy listening to, and learning from, podcasts about the game. Also, to give a huge bit of credit to this site, I have not had a season close to this before downloading the Transfer Planner from the beginning of the season. By the way, I am not in any way employed or connected to the site other than being a member. Just offering free kudos in return for some good tools.

Not everyone likes to plan in that way with an excel-sheet, and it is true that you must be adaptable in FPL, but for me, easily getting restless and taking hits when nothing is happening, it is a perfect way to channel the feeling of inactivity into non-hit-taking activities. If I want to take players in or out of the team, I just do it in the planner and leave it there for later. Losing a lot fewer points that way.

What it has also helped me do, is get some more perspective when it comes to the planning of the chips, and it has led me to take some different routes with chip strategy. I must admit that I kind of do like second-guessing popular opinions, but as I have harshly realised the last few seasons, sometimes that can cost dearly. So instead of being different for the sake of it, I have managed to go with the flow when needed, while also sticking to my guns when I meant I had reasons for it. Not everything has gone great, and several times I have of course had a bit of luck, but I am playing much better than any season before. That I am sure of.

It is difficult to ignore the hive mentality, and quite often you should not. I have captained Kane a few times more than I should have, trying to capitalise early on his revival and owning Wood for the double double has left me with only two points so far in GW28 (he will be leaving my team in GW31). I will not regret owning him by the way. Strikers are performing badly. At least Wood has four games in two GWs. But these are kind of small things. I believe fun punts are allowed here and there. Just trying to avoid the stupid and costly ones, like stubbornly continuously refusing to buy Vardy a few seasons ago.

Chips are something else though, and I want to address some popular truths that I find to be, if not incorrect, at least more debatable than popular opinion leads one to believe. The most obvious one for me this season is how it seems “everyone” is treating a potential free hit in GW30 as looney play (exaggerating for emphasis). Free hit GW30 was early dismissed for the rubbish fixtures and adding a few teams does not seem to change the collective “No to Free hit 30-rally” marching down the plazas of FPL-s most beautiful virtual spaces. The argument being that you isolate GW30 against a DGW with more “upside”, make up a number you will gain from using it this or that double GW, and voila: case closed! The only problem often alluded to, joked about, and sometimes bemoaned, is the state of your team as you have set it up exactly for that rubbish game week.

People are now selling Cancelo, ignoring Newcastle’s four games in two, playing only two Liverpool players in their double, and waiting on Chelsea while loading up on West Midlands players just to be able to survive GW30 without the Free hit, completely ignoring the points lost before or after, because those are impossible to quantify, and as such they seem irrelevant.

Instead of using the free hit for optimising a singular game week, one could for example have considered using it to build the best wild card one could imagine for DGW28, DGW29, GW31 and forward. As a nice bonus, one would then also get the chance to gain ground in GW30 with the free hit, even though the games are “bad”. In principle, one would be optimising at least four GWs, in which two are doubles, instead of using it hoping for one massive DGW score later.

To no one’s surprise, since I am the one writing this, it is the strategy I have chosen. With 101 points and seven players to go this week, while nicely set up for GW29, and a sea of blue fixtures waiting in GW31, this dog is wagging its tail, hoping to have set itself up to get even luckier.

Good luck with the rest of your season and play the game the way you want to!

Kim-Tonny Henriksen

11 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. 15th Time Lucky
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    I really like reading pieces like this. These are my thoughts exactly, and I'm planning a 30FH followed by a 31WC. Meant I could focus on some lovely doubles without worrying about if they had a fixture in GW30. Should hopefully leave me set up well for the run in. I also BB'd this week so the WC can really let me focus on the first 11.

    What are your opinions on the BB chip? I usually go with the general consensus of using it in a big double, but waiting till GW35 or so each season to set up for it seems so restrictive, so I normally just get cheap doublers to sit on my bench near the end and pick up 4pts each. I normally look at those few people each pre-season talking about a GW1BB and tend to think they're crazy, but thinking about it now, it makes a lot of sense. There's a lot of line up knowledge going into GW1 (though admittedly no form at all) and I am someone who often WC's by GW6 or so, so having a bit more money than I'd like on the bench isn't going to hold me back for long. It's something I'm going to consider next season if prices and the GW1 fixtures allow it.

    1. Bunk Moreland
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Good post. Would just add that there is some form in gw1 as well. F x, many started with Antonio and Benrahma since they were scoring all the time in the Europe qualifiers or friendlies or whatever they were playing. They turned out great. Mahrez before 2015/2016 was another one.

      I think the gw1 bb is very viable. But i am also looking forward to activating it in gw29 with 12 doublers 🙂

      1. 15th Time Lucky
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        That's a fair point. I think I let the failed picks from preseason form blind me to the successes. I had Fraser from the start a few years ago too.

  2. 15th Time Lucky
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    And in all that wall of text, I forgot to say thank you for taking the time to write it and share your opinions!

  3. corbea
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Spot on. Great post.

  4. Rotation's Alter Ego
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Great post Kimito, thank you for this!

  5. EffPeeEll
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    It's a free to play game that involves a hell of a lot of luck and if you make a poor start you are unlikely to win the damn thing.

    Waste of quality life dwelling on such a bang average game

    1. 15th Time Lucky
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      What is worth doing in life, other than things you enjoy, or things that other people will enjoy?

  6. akazola
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    A bit late to the party on your article and haven't read previous comments, so take it as it is. I really like posts like this. Practical and well thought out view / game plan. And no xG (etc.) in sight. On the downside I wonder how my season has turned to shhh in the last few gameweeks. Lessons to be learnt about Chip use here. Thanks for that (Next year will be my year...)

  7. FPL Theorist
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Great stuff!

    I have also played the FH in 27 and 30, allowing me to hold 3 Liverpool players at all times. I've also taken fewer hits over the last several GWs than most rivals and saved my WC. Currently on track for my 5th straight green arrow and still have WC and BB left. This wouldn't be possible if I weren't gaining ground before and after GW30 by optimising the team for the other GWs with a plan to play FH30.

    If it does turn out that we get a massive DGW33, I can just take hits then, which I don't feel as bad about doing in a large high-scoring DGW, or I can play my WC slightly earlier than my original GW34 plan.

  8. FPLMinister
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Oh! I'm sorry not to have replied to any of the comments above. Thank you all for the kind words! I actually didn't realize it had been published.