Spot the Differential
18 October 2022 520 comments
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Gameweek 12 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is just hours away, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Liverpool, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of five per cent or less at the time of writing.

MATT DOHERTY

The best Spurs players for FPL Double Gameweek 29 and beyond 3
  • FPL ownership: 0.8%
  • Price: £4.6m
  • GW12-16 fixtures: mun | NEW | bou | LIV | LEE

Matt Doherty (£4.6m) has had to bide his time at Tottenham Hotspur this season, as Emerson Royal (£4.9m) has been Antonio Conte’s preferred right wing-back.

However, the Irishman has now started two consecutive Premier League games in the absence of the suspended Brazilian, which has coincided with back-to-back wins and clean sheets.

Asked about the performance of Doherty against Everton, Conte said it was the best he had seen the former Wolverhampton Wanderers man this season.

“I’m really happy for Matthew. He played a good game against Brighton but today he was better. He was good against Brighton but today I saw Matt Doherty of last season. I said to him ‘now finally you are the player I know’.” – Antonio Conte

In his last two appearances, Doherty has frequently got forward to contribute in the final third, racking up three shots in the box.

Now, he is expected to start again against Manchester United in Gameweek 12, before Emerson returns from his ban. However, if Doherty keeps performing at his current level, it’s hard to see the Brazilian breaking back into the starting XI for appealing fixtures against Newcastle United (h) and Bournemouth (a).

Doherty, of course, had the best minutes-per-expected goals (xG) average of any FPL defender after Conte’s appointment last season, and given how sharp he’s looked of late, can provide excellent value.

KEPA ARRIZABALAGA

The best FPL goalkeepers for a Double Gameweek 22 Free Hit 8
  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW12-16 fixtures: bre | MUN | bha | ARS | new

Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.4m) has kept four clean sheets in a row in all competitions, quickly emerging as a key player under Graham Potter.

At Villa Park on Sunday, the Spaniard produced a string of fine saves, including an outstanding reaction stop to deny Danny Ings (£6.7m) what looked a certain goal. In total, he made a whopping seven saves, returning 10 points for his small army of owners.

In his post-match interview, Potter hailed Kepa’s display.

“It was a world-class performance, especially in the first half. We needed Kepa at that point and he made some fantastic saves. I’m really pleased for him, he has had a tough period for us at times but he contributed to the game.” – Graham Potter

Despite only playing in three league matches this season, Kepa has already prevented more goals than any other ‘keeper with his saves. Indeed, his +3.20 xG prevented figure is ahead of closest rivals Alisson (£5.4m, +2.80) and Neto (£4.5m), +2.60).

It is worth noting that Potter is yet to explicitly state Kepa is his number one, but Edouard Mendy’s (£4.9m) dip in form, plus the Spaniard’s distribution and ability to play as an extra defender, suggests it’s his jersey to lose.

Kepa has provided the platform for Chelsea’s five wins a row, and at just £4.4m, is an excellent replacement for those managers wishing to sell Ederson (£5.5m) or Aaron Ramsdale (£4.9m) in Gameweek 12.

ANDREW ROBERTSON

Who is the best third Liverpool asset to own during AFCON?
  • FPL ownership: 4.5%
  • Price: £6.7m
  • GW12-16 fixtures: WHU | nfo | LEE | tot | SOU

Andrew Robertson (£6.7m) returned from injury on Sunday, which coincided with Liverpool’s first clean sheet since Gameweek 6 as they ran out 1-0 winners over Manchester City.

In addition to nullifying Joao Cancelo (£7.3m) down City’s right flank, he also offered a constant threat going forward.

Indeed, among all teammates, only Roberto Firmino (£8.1m) received more passes in the final third (13), with the Scot attempting five crosses and one shot in the box. He also shared corners with James Milner (£4.4m), which offers another route to points in the coming rounds.

The obvious concern is rotation, having just returned from injury. However, Jurgen Klopp will be keen to stick with Sunday’s winning formula and there are potential clean sheets against West Ham United, Nottingham Forest, Leeds United and Southampton before we pause for the winter World Cup.

It’s also worth noting that Liverpool’s next two opponents, West Ham and Forest, sit among the bottom four sides for crosses and chances conceded from their right flank in 2022/23, so there are nice zonal matchups to take advantage of too.

Liverpool’s full-backs have been keen to their success in recent times, and given their upcoming fixtures, Robertson could be an effective under-the-radar pick.

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  1. El Copo
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    James to Doherty for a -4?

    1. Rainer
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      If you think Doherty starts vs Newcastle at the weekend too, yes!

    2. Yozzer
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Emerson back next week. I wouldn't. They will probably concede this gw too

  2. The Reptile
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    sorry last message was in reply to TAA post above

    1. Mirror Man
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Have you been at the punch, mate?

      1. The Reptile
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Rum & Raisin chocolate...

        1. Mirror Man
          3 years, 10 months ago

          I like your reptilian way. Have an upvote.

    2. Rainer
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Trent has an account on here? Nice!

  3. Rainer
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Hopefully there's plenty of -2s flying around this GW 🙂

    1. Athletic Nasherbo
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      -12 (-6)

  4. Big Ronnie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Who to captain?

    A) Kane
    B) Trossard
    C) Trippier
    D) Mitrovic

    1. Mozumbus
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      A

      1. Big Ronnie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers

    2. The Wayfarer
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      I'm going Trippier for some reason.

      1. Big Ronnie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        I'm still swaying towards Trossard

        1. The Wayfarer
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 10 months ago

          If I had him, I'd captain him.

        2. dansully3
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 10 months ago

          I'm staying on tross. I'd captain a ball boy v forest tbh

    3. Rainer
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Kane if you're keeping him for that consistency you have to back him!

      1. Big Ronnie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Consistency or take a punt on a higher ceiling of someone like Trossard

    4. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      A

  5. Mozumbus
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Did Jesus > Nunez with FT, playing 10 due to Maddison spanner, WC13

    Here it goes
    Ward
    Trippier Struijk Neco
    Salah(c) Zaha Andreas Longstaff
    Jesus Toney

    Green arrow or red?
    Current OR, too bad, 2.97m!

  6. The Reptile
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Am I taking a risk to put in Robertson? I hear there's a chance of rotation.

    1. Mozumbus
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Yes VVD safer

    2. Pep's Money Laundry
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      First cs in ages, you think klopp will start tinkering?

      I think he starts, if you want safe then maybe pick gomez who should play next 2 possibly 3 games

  7. aleksios
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Would you do Mings (doubt) to Robbo for a hit?

    1. Mozumbus
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Robbo can be benched

  8. Badger Badger Mushroom Mush…
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Is there a way to check the average hits in the top 100k say? I'm curious how many were taken this GW.

    Minus 8 for me but fielding 11 (hopefully)

    1. Rainer
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Yeah, LiveFPL will have averages.

      It'll be around -2.5/3 to start the week, hopefully more 🙂

  9. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Doherty or Darlot on WC?

    1. Bobby_Baggio
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Doh

  10. akhilrajau
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Sanchez (ward)
    Trippier, , Williams, guehi
    Salah, Radford, Andreas, Zaha
    Haland, Jesus, Solanke
    Bench : James, cancello, Martinelli
    Bank : 1.4m, FT: 0
    Which one is -4 worth?
    A. Martinelli -> Mount
    B. James -> castange/Emerson is
    C. Jesus - Toney/Mitrovic/Wilson
    D. Jesus - Darwin

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Jesus to Wilson

  11. Ramires
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Thoughts?

    1 FT - 5.8m

    Pope
    Neco W - Zouma - Dier - Tripper
    Maddison - Mount - Zaha - Andreas P
    Mitro - Wilson

    Iversen - Haaland - Cancelo - Martinelli

    Maddison > Salah

    Not sure whether to transfer out one of Neco or Zouma for a hit

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Get Salah

  12. Bobby_Baggio
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Afternoon all. 1FT, 2.3m ITB and WC intact. Which one please?

    Pope
    Trippier - Guehi - Neco - *Cancelo*
    Salah - Zaha - Trossard - Andreas
    Mitro - Toney

    (Iversen) - *Haaland* - *Saliba* - *Martinelli*.

    A) Cancelo (bought 7m) > Castagne or Chillwell.
    B) Saliba (bought 4.5m) > Castagne or Chillwell.
    C) Save - Means i have 10 players this GW

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      C

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 15 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers

    2. JoeSoap
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      B or C. B if you believe they will keep clean sheet or get attacking returns.

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 15 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Don't think either will get CS so I'll stick with C. Cheers

  13. clarkey_2000
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    A) Wilson now, Foden next week
    B) Darwin now, Martinelli next week
    C)Trent now, Foden next week

    all of these to have 11 playing this week

    1. JoeSoap
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      A

    2. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      A

    3. Yozzer
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Wilson could be rested for a game. He's injury prone. Wood could easily get a start

    4. Skogen89
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      C looks fun

  14. JoeSoap
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    A. Williams, Trossard (capt Kane or Trossard, have Gross)
    B. Salah (c), Almiron (-4 and will lose 0.3 on Martinelli)

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      A

    2. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      B has more upside

    3. Bobby_Baggio
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      A for me

    4. JoeSoap
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Thanks all & good luck this week

  15. Ray In Bruges.
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    WC Team GTG?

    Kepa Ward
    Cancelo Dalot Trippier Doherty Guehi
    Salah Martinelli Mount Andreas Longstaff
    Haaland Kane Mitrovic

    0.3ITB

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Like it, similar to mine 🙂 GL!

  16. CROWLEY NOT CRAWLEY
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Have Coufal and Neco as 4th/5th defenders. Coufal may get another start this week, but it is against LIV and then he becomes dead weight when Dawson and Zouma are back...

    Worth taking a -4 for this week and beyond? I have 0.4 ITB, so up to 4.7 DEF. Other D are Cancelo, Trippier, Dunk.

    A. Gomez - should get 2-3 starts from what I can tell
    B. Guehi/Andersen
    C. Kehrer/Zouma
    D.Tarkowski
    E. Kilman
    F. Hold Coufal

    1. dansully3
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      I'm looking at gomez too but the main bother with him is he has zero attacking potential. Doesn't go forward for corners. Basically it's a cleanie or pants.

      1. CROWLEY NOT CRAWLEY
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah - in general that is what you are going to get at this price range. I'm thinking about their positive fixture run, like NFO next week.

  17. Bigler
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Gtg with -8? WC next week

    Pope
    Trippier Schär Perisic Neco
    Salah Trossard Zaha Andreas
    Firmino Mitro

    Cheers!

    1. Rhodes your boat
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Looks good, Salah (c)?

      1. Bigler
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Yep

        1. Rhodes your boat
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 10 months ago

          Same, GL 🙂

  18. Pringle
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    How about this for free? Still have first WC

    Cancelo + Maddison —> Gomez + Salah

    1. Rhodes your boat
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Looks good, wc next week?

  19. Rhodes your boat
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Maddison to Mount/BrunoG/trossard worth a -4? Have already taken a hit this week but have 10 players so far

  20. EL_FENOMENO
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    a) Move Doherty/Justin to TAA and next week take a -4 to bring in Foden
    b) Save FT and reevaluate at the weekend

  21. nevins84
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Maddison to Mount using 1ft seems like a decent move but not overly popular what am I missing

    1. dansully3
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Brighton v forest

      1. nevins84
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Already have Tross

    2. Rainer
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      People want a 1 GW punt in that position and see Trossard to be better.

      If you're thinking of Mount longer term, people will rather have Saka or Foden in that spot.

      1. nevins84
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Have Tross so was looking another...Seems Mount under Potter is gunna be a good option am just suprised it's not more popular..

  22. Kane Train
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Thoughts on Son > Salah for free??

    1. PompeyUpNorth!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Too right then Captain

  23. how now brown cow
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Not seen anthony mentioned at all. No takers?

    1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Pretty sure I'm bringing him in on WC next week, think he's a decent shout for this week too though, Spurs tend to allow a few shots from distance and that's certainly something he likes doing

      1. dansully3
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Not ahead of Saka surely

        1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 10 months ago

          No he'd be alongside Saka and Foden and Martinelli. I'd have to decide whether to keep Pereira or Zaha for the last spot, most likely just get Eze instead of either of those

  24. Drogba Legend
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    How many hits do I take?

    Guaita
    Thiago Silva** - Neco** - Zouma** - Doherty
    Andreas - Zaha - Barnes - Maddison** - KDB**
    Mitro

    Ward - Jesus - Haaland - Cancelo

    ** are injury doubts or blanks..

    Considering -8 or -12 and doing something like..

    Maddison > Solly March/Brighton
    Jesus > Wilson/Kane
    KDB > Salah
    Silva > Schar/Trippier
    Zouma > Webster/Dunk?

  25. Athletic Nasherbo
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Let’s go, -12

    Martinelli, Maddison, Sterling, KdB, Jesus > Trossard, Rashford, Bowen, Salah(C), Darwin

    Will get Saka/Foden Gw13/14

    1. dansully3
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Only saka foden why stop there with those trigger happy fingers...

      1. Athletic Nasherbo
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Already own Haaland and Saliba

  26. Conners
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Afternoon

    Currently on this for a -4, anything worth changing?

    Sanchez
    Dunk - Trippier - Neco - Guehi
    Salah (c) - Bowen - Trossard - Andreas
    Kane - Toney

    Raya / Coufal - Haaland* - Martinelli*

  27. Kante Touch This
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    How many people here are also relying on Neco to start today?

    1. how now brown cow
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Me

    2. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Loads of us. I have about 7 "sure" starters and 2 probables (Trossard & Wilson) plus Neco. All that for -4. Expecting a red arrow - maybe a big one.

      1. Kante Touch This
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Is Trossard not a sure starter? Was just about to bring him in for Martinelli for -4

        Think I'm on the same numbers as you otherwise, hoping Chilwell starts again, and relying on Dasilva to score one of his out-of-the-box bangers again...

        1. Old Man
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          3 years, 10 months ago

          I think that he's almost certain to start (he's too valuable to Brighton) but until I can be sure that he won't be "rested" for Lallana ...... (just my inbuilt self-defence mechanism)
          I think you'll be OK to bring him in.

          1. dansully3
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 10 months ago

            It'd be gross for lallana anyway

  28. FDMS All Starz
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Which combo till GW16?

    A) Kane & Justin
    Or
    B) Firmino & Robbo

    1. Mirror Man
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Surely you can do better than Justin.

  29. Saka Punch
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Anyone else got Firmino and noticed the predicted lineup not including him? :/

    1. Mirror Man
      3 years, 10 months ago

      For me, no.

    2. The Reptile
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Yes - but haven't hit the button yet, still mulling it over. He is in on other sites - Find it hard to believe he'll be dropped as his form is very good

      1. Saka Punch
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah just looked and like 5 other sites and all predicted him starting. Without Jota, having Salah and Darwin as your only natural forwards seems pretty unlike Klopp

  30. Erez Avni
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Chelsea fans, who would you go for one week punt between Mount and Sterling?

    1. dansully3
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      That's not a question, mount is the very obvious obvious choice