FPL Focal previews the weekend’s Fantasy Premier League (FPL) action, taking a look at who the bookies think are the best bets for goals and clean sheets as well as monitoring the latest transfer trends.
Make sure to also check out G-Whizz’s weekly Hot Topic on fixture and clean sheet odds, which also looks back at how the bookmakers performed in the previous Gameweek.
GAMEWEEK 14: GOALSCORER ODDS
Starting with Gameweek 14’s anytime goalscorer odds, Erling Haaland (£12.2m) has been given a 56.5% chance of scoring against Leicester City. He was withdrawn at half-time in the Champions League because of a knock, leading to these post-match comments from Pep Guardiola:
“I don’t know. I don’t know right now. Yeah, definitely we will assess it on Wednesday. I spoke [with the medical staff] at half time, they were a little bit concerned. But I saw him walking, more or less quite good.”
He was also reportedly substituted with a fever, so we hope to get good clarification on his availability nearer the deadline.
Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m) and Mohamed Salah (£12.8m) are tied with a 47% chance. The former is perhaps being overlooked this week, with nine attacking returns so far and a home match against Nottingham Forest.
If Haaland does miss out, then there’s a big captaincy decision to make. Salah’s been a frustration for owners but Leeds United (H) is also an extremely good fixture.
Elsewhere, Harry Kane (£11.5m) is rated as 42.5% likely to find the net. Bournemouth goalkeeper Neto has had a big impact since joining but is now out sidelined with a hamstring injury, so an absence might spell success for Kane and Son Heung-min (£11.7m) owners.
Arsenal pair Bukayo Saka (£8.0m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£6.8m) both have a 35.5% chance, so those with a double-up look to be in a strong position. With the same percentage is Ivan Toney (£7.5m) at home to Wolverhampton Wanderers.
GAMEWEEK 14: CLEAN SHEET ODDS
Arsenal are deemed 52% likely to keep out Nottingham Forest, whose 12.5 expected goals (xG) tally ranks fourth-worst and they’ve scored even fewer, with eight.
Meanwhile, Manchester City are backed at 43% away to Leicester. Pep said that Joao Cancelo (£7.4m) – like Haaland – had a slight fever that led to their early midweek departures. Hopefully, it’s nothing serious with Cancelo, the second-most-owned defender after Kieran Trippier (£5.8m).
Newcastle have a good chance of another clean sheet, this time at home to an Aston Villa side that won’t have Unai Emery in the dugout until Gameweek 15.
Crystal Palace join them on 36%, hosting Southampton and their second-worst xG of 10.8. Only Bournemouth have fared worse.
Rock bottom is a three-way tie, with Forest, Leeds and Leicester all given an 8.5% chance of success.
GAMEWEEK 14: MOST TRANSFERS IN
Let’s move on to transfer activity. Miguel Almiron (£5.4m) is comfortably the most bought with over half a million purchases. He really is having a remarkable season, with 67 points and six goals, where only Kevin De Bruyne (£12.3m) has more points among midfielders.
His previous best-scoring season ended with four goals but he’s now finally looking like the player that Newcastle hoped he’d be when they signed him and is a bargain for FPL managers.
De Bruyne scored a wonderful goal last weekend to put him on two goals and nine assists for the campaign. Leandro Trossard (£6.8m) was the most bought for Gameweek 12, the most-sold for Gameweek 13 and is now back to popularity heading into Gameweek 14.
Perhaps facing Chelsea is not the week to buy him but he proved many of us wrong versus both Man City and Liverpool. Brighton and Hove Albion’s final two games before the World Cup are against Wolves and Villa, which might be a better time to buy him.
Phil Foden‘s (£8.4m) benching hasn’t deterred managers, with a further 150,000 bringing him in. He followed up his recent substitute cameo by playing 80 minutes in the Champions League and, as Pep is big on player rhythm, this was perhaps a run-out ahead of a start at Leicester.
Trippier is approaching £5.9m now and is one to strongly consider if you still don’t have him, otherwise his returns will cause a lot of damage. A couple of Arsenal assets make the top transfers list, both Saka and William Saliba (£5.2m).
GAMEWEEK 14: MOST TRANSFERS OUT
Onto the most transferred out, which interestingly has Salah top. As much as he has hurt owners this season, there is a fair argument for keeping him one more Gameweek. After all, it is against Leeds at home and he’s not suddenly a terrible footballer.
We’ve seen flashes of what he is capable of this season but, if you’re not tripled up on Man City assets it is understandable to sell Salah for a fully-rested De Bruyne.
Reece James (£5.9m) continues to be heavily sold and is not expected back before the World Cup. Jesus is also being rid of but, again, it doesn’t seem like the right week to make such a sale.
Foden is among the most sold as well, due to the surrounding uncertainty. He’s in the same boat as Jesus and Salah in that it seems illogical to sell now, with serious potential for these players to punish. In Foden’s case, his final three fixtures are great so he should be an easy hold.
