Spot the Differential
2 January 2023 634 comments
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Double Gameweek 19 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Fulham, Chelsea and Leicester City, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

WILLIAN

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW19-23 fixtures: lei + CHE | new | TOT | che | NFO

Willian (£5.5m) has been surprisingly impressive since joining Fulham on transfer deadline day.

The Brazilian doesn’t possess a great deal of pace nowadays, but his partnership with Antonee Robinson (£4.4m) is thriving, with the left-back’s advanced positioning allowing Willian to move inside, closer to goal.

Andreas Pereira (£4.6m) is the Cottagers’ creator-in-chief – Kevin De Bruyne (£12.5m) is the only FPL midfielder to have supplied more opportunities (54) than him (41) this season – but Willian is doing his best to keep pace. Indeed, his rate of 2.21 chances created per 90 minutes (p90) isn’t too far behind what Pereira has managed so far (2.64).

It’s also worth noting for a short period on Saturday, he had two assists in two games, before Pereira’s strike was later changed to an own goal. The passage of play stemmed from Willian’s corner, with his share of dead-ball duties another route to FPL points.

In terms of goal threat, he’s averaging an okay-ish 1.35 shots inside the box p90 and 0.37 big chances p90.

As for Fulham, they always play with an attacking mindset, which has seen them score 29 goals in 17 games so far this season, a very impressive return.

Now, they meet Leicester City and Chelsea in Double Gameweek 19, which is then followed by some tricky fixtures. However, the Cottagers have faced all of the current top six already and have scored against them all, which is encouraging.

Willian has been a key player for Fulham this season and is a nice alternative to the more popular Pereira and Aleksandar Mitrovic (£7.1m) picks.

RAHEEM STERLING

  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £9.7m
  • GW19-23 fixtures: MCI + ful | CRY | liv | FUL | whu

Raheem Sterling (£9.7m) hasn’t hit top form at Chelsea since his summer switch from Manchester City, scoring four goals and providing two assists in 14 league appearances.

However, the England winger supplied the assist for Kai Havertz’s (£7.8m) opener in Gameweek 17 and followed it up with a goal against Nottingham Forest on Sunday.

Sterling hasn’t been completely immune to Graham Potter’s tinkering so far but has started each of Chelsea’s two matches since the restart. In that time, he has created four chances for his team-mates, more than any other Blues player. Just two shots inside the box have been registered, although Sterling’s past history suggests he can offer plenty of goal threat.

Assessing Sterling’s form, Potter recently said…

“He’s come into a new team that have lost some key players over the summer, brought some new ones in during the transfer window and had a manager change. The team hasn’t functioned as well as I believe it can and Raheem, along with all the players, has suffered for that. It would be wrong for me to say that Raheem has been at the absolute top of his game but he’s not the only one. It’s my responsibility to help the team function better so that he can play better because he’s got the quality of a top player.” – Graham Potter on Raheem Sterling

Chelsea put their pre-World Cup blues behind them with a comfortable 2-0 win over Bournemouth in Gameweek 17. Suggestions they had turned a corner proved to be premature, however, as they labored to a 1-1 draw at The City Ground on Sunday.

Despite that, with games against Manchester City and Fulham in Double Gameweek 19, followed by an appealing Stamford Bridge meeting with Crystal Palace after, midfielder Sterling might just be worth investing in.

HARVEY BARNES

Barnes offering differential potential between now and end of FPL season
  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £6.8m
  • GW19-23 fixtures: FUL | nfo | BHA | avl | TOT

Harvey Barnes (£6.8m) often slips under the FPL radar, with team-mate James Maddison (£8.1m) taking the majority of the headlines.

However, the winger has been putting in some top performances in recent months, scoring five goals in his last 10 league appearances. In fact, from the start of his purple patch in Gameweek 9, he’s racked up 51 points, more than any other FPL midfielder bar Miguel Almiron (£5.9m) and Mohamed Salah (£12.9m), plus Arsenal trio Martin Odegaard (£6.5m), Gabriel Martinelli (£6.8m) and Bukayo Saka (£8.1m).

Overall this season, no Leicester City player has registered more shots inside the box (26) than Barnes, with his seven big chances, 67 penalty box touches and 218 passes received in the final third also team-leading tallies.

Against Liverpool in Gameweek 18, Barnes needed to show a little more composure in the final third but did get into some promising positions. Encouragingly, he and his Leicester colleagues are now about to meet two of the three worst sides for minutes per xGC in 2022/23: Fulham and Nottingham Forest.

There is no doubt there is more to come from Barnes, who could prove to be a decent differential pick, with his ownership currently sitting at just 1.6%.



634 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. kempc23
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Useless Foden to Mount for free? Although Mount isnt great either.

    1. GreatCarragherReef
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I’d do that if you already have rashford.

  2. Texas Pete
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Drop Foden, Almiron, Kane or Martinelli for Andreas?

    1. GreatCarragherReef
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I’d drop foden but none of the others

    2. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Foden or Almiron. Probably Foden. But that's an expensive bench. Bench boost?

    3. Bluetiger1
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Foden

  3. The Knights Template
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Nudists are here woohoo!

  4. Old Bull
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Play Ward or Ederson?

    1. GreatCarragherReef
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Emerson for me

      1. Old Bull
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Possibly do a better job than either of them

  5. GreatCarragherReef
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Bench 2:
    A) Gabriel
    B) Trippier
    C) Cancelo
    D) Almiron
    E) Andreas

    Cheers

    1. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      D and no idea. C?!

      1. GreatCarragherReef
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks that’s what I’m on currently

    2. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      AC, or AD if you can't bench 2 defenders

      1. GreatCarragherReef
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Yeah cheers this is the case, didn’t want to complicate it

  6. lewis274
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Robertson to cucurella even if i have kepa?

  7. lewis274
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    start andreas or almiron?

    1. marcos11
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Andreas

    2. Bluetiger1
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Andreas for GW19 only switch back afterwards

  8. marcos11
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Kepa
    Trippier Walker Shaw
    Salah Rashford Martinelli Andreas
    Haaland Kane Mitro
    Ward James Almiron Bueno

    2ft 1.2itb.
    Get rid of Walker/James? Any options worth bringing in for the double this week like Mount/Havertz? Or just move Salah/Kane > KDB

    1. GreatCarragherReef
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      James out first, gives you time to see if Walker gets back into the team before the dgw

  9. Origi-nal
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Who to bench from each option below?

    A) Cancelo
    B) Trippier

    &

    1) Foden
    2) Martinelli

    1. Bluetiger1
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      A1

      1. GreatCarragherReef
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        This

  10. DLLM
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Anyone captaining salah?

    1. aapoman
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Has Gandhi not taught you anything?

  11. MADCHESTER UTD
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Anyone else leaning towards captaining Rashford. Currently on mitrovic and considering haaland but Rashford is on fire at mo. 3 or 4-0 Utd with him getting 2 is definately possible. And extra point for a goal coz he’s a mid

  12. aapoman
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Andreas captain anyone? Mitro would require a -4 so don't think it's worth bringing him in. Haaland also an option but a bit boring

    1. abaalan
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Think I might do it. Although if I had mount or sterling would probably go there

      1. aapoman
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Could do Foden to Mount but just think it's better to get Andreas and bank the cash and move to 343 soon.

  13. MIGHTY JOE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Advice much appreciated!

    Ward (Iversen)
    Walker Trippier Cucu (White Bueno)
    Rash KDB Andreas Martinelli (Almiron)
    Kane Haaland Darwin

    A) Darwin -> Mitro
    B) Walker -> Shaw
    C) Ward -> Kepa
    D) Hold

    ..Other? Cheers!

  14. Malinwa
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Replacement for Castagne:
    A) Shaw
    B) Cucu (DGW)

    1. St Pauli Walnuts
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      A but I have and I am holding. Decent fixtures soon and think they will improve defensively, he's cheap and always has attacking threat.

  15. Gazzpfc
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Pops
    Cucurella Gabriel Shaw
    Salah Rashford Andreas Martinelli
    Kane Haaland Mitro (c)

    Ward Trippier Almiron Patterson

    1. Pope to Kepa -4?
    2. Mount to Martinelli -4?
    3. Capt Mitro yes or no?

    Help needed?

    1. The Mentaculus
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      No
      No
      Yes

  16. abaalan
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Anyone think this dgw is a trap? Thinking mitro and havertz could both be dangerous...

  17. Roshen
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Kepa, Martinelli, Bueno, Patterson

    good enough for BB?

  18. Malinwa
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Bench 1:

    A) Martinelli
    B) Rash
    C) Almiron
    D) Andreas

    1. Roshen
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Almiron

  19. Danno - Emre Canada
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Start Trips or Estupinan?

  20. FPLSuarridge
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    2FT , 0 ITB, what would you guys do? I'm just in the 200k comment away!!! Thanks in advance

    Ward
    Trippier WhiteBueno
    Salah KDB Rashford Marti Almiron
    Haaland Kane

    Iverson Perraud Patterson Greenwood

  21. teknicolourfox
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Just thought I'd come and remind you about Harvey Barnes

    LoL

  22. Patio Kev
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Cancelo and Walker off at half time

    1. Patio Kev
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      At least they kept a clean sheet