Our latest Members article series, reviving an old Scout strand called Tales of the Expected, explores the expected goals (xG) data from the last six matches, assessing each side from an attacking and defensive perspective.
In addition, we’ll also check out the form players on show, asking if their recent output is sustainable.
Having last looked at these tables ahead of Gameweek 16, it’s time to revisit them again, armed with the latest stats from the restart.
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TEAMS
First up, let’s take a look at the recent xG data over the last six matches, taking into account that Wolves, Southampton and Aston Villa have all changed managers in this period.
XG: LAST SIX MATCHES
No top-flight side has scored more goals than Brighton in their last six matches, with 17 from 8.65 xG. Everton and Chelsea have been on the receiving end of heavy 4-1 defeats in that time, with xG figures higher than 2.0 racked up by Albion on both occasions.
BRIGHTON XG BREAKDOWN: LAST SIX MATCHES
| GW14 (CHE) | GW15 (wol) | GW16 (AVL) | GW17 (sou) | GW18 (ARS) | GW19 (eve) | |
| Brighton | 2.44 | 1.57 | 0.66 | 0.64 | 1.17 | 2.17 |
In recent seasons, Brighton have heavily underperformed their xG, so it’s notable that they are finally converting their chances and overachieving (+8.35) by such a margin. With De Zerbi settling in nicely, budget options like Kaoru Mitoma (£4.9m) and Alexis Mac Allister (£5.4m) carry potential.
Man City and Arsenal switch places at the top, although no side has underperformed their xG more than Pep Guardiola’s side in their last six matches (-3.97).
As for Arsenal, Eddie Nketiah (£6.5m) is deputising admirably in the absence of Gabriel Jesus (£7.9m), with only Newcastle keeping the Gunners’ attack below 2.0 xG since the restart.
ARSENAL XG BREAKDOWN: LAST SIX MATCHES
| GW14 (NFO w/ Jesus) | GW15 (che w/ Jesus) | GW16 (wol w/ Jesus) | GW17 (WHU w/ Nketiah) | GW18 (bha w/ Nketiah) | GW19 (NEW w/ Nketiah) | |
| Arsenal | 2.30 | 2.25 | 1.81 | 2.20 | 2.93 | 1.12 |
Elsewhere, Darwin Nunez (£8.9m) has accounted for 4.13 of Liverpool’s xG tally but only scored twice, while Man Utd’s attack ahead of Double Gameweek 20 is clearly on the up. Yes, they have benefitted from a kind post-World Cup schedule (NFO/wol/BOU), but they last failed to score in Gameweek 11, so there is real progress under Erik ten Hag.
And what about Spurs? They were extremely clinical at Crystal Palace last time out – scoring four times from chances equating to just 1.39 xG – but their xG rank is 16th from Gameweek 17 onwards. That’s coincided with Dejan Kulusevski (£7.9m), their biggest creator behind Ivan Perisic (£5.5m) across the season, missing games.
West Ham, meanwhile, have dropped from third to 15th on the above table, while Chelsea are still struggling to create clear-cut opportunities under Graham Potter. And for all of Wolves’ improvements under Julen Lopetegui, they have managed an xG tally of just 2.46 in his three league games in charge, although it is still early days for the Spaniard.
XGC: LAST SIX MATCHES
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