The FPL Watchlist: Who are the best medium-term player picks?

With blanks and doubles starting to litter the landscape, medium-term planning is getting even more important in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

So while the Watchlist may be viewed as the support act to the Scout Picks headliner, it’s arguably more important as it deals in extended lookaheads rather than one-week-only punts.

In the Watchlist series, we look at the stand-out Fantasy Premier League (FPL) options over a four-to-six-week lookahead.

The Watchlist widget is visible on the sidebar of this page and has been provisionally updated ahead of the Gameweek 20 deadline, with the new standings and the major changes detailed below.

We say “provisionally” as there’s always the chance we get more Double Gameweek announcements in the coming days, which could alter the order once again.

With this article strand focusing on medium-term thinking, we try wherever possible to avoid making any knee-jerk decisions. Not a great deal changed from Gameweeks 17-19 over Christmas and New Year but with those doubles imminent, fixture swings for some clubs happening in Gameweek 20, and Fulham and Chelsea’s double-header out of the way after Thursday, there’s a bit more to discuss.

MORE ABOUT THE WATCHLIST

Players are selected and ranked according to factors such as form, club injuries, forthcoming fixtures, Rate My Team’s points projections and whether or not the player in question is likely to be a bargain in FPL.

Arrows before the name indicate whether a player has climbed or fallen in our reckoning since the previous update or if they are a new entry into the tables.

We typically toe the line with FPL’s definition of ‘form’ (average points accrued in matches played over the last 30 days) but allowances are sometimes made for players missing because of/coming back from injury.

The key for the factors you’ll see in the below tables is as follows:

THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL GOALKEEPERS

There’s a few tweaks to the goalkeeping pecking order, with Ederson (£5.4m) replacing Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.6m) at the summit.

Ederson has kept a ridiculous 30 more Premier League clean sheets than any other shot-stopper since he made his debut for Manchester City but he’s rarely been the most-owned goalkeeper in FPL, with his hefty price tag and a lack of save (and bonus) points counting against him. On top of this, there’s nearly always been at least one City defender in front of him offering other routes to Fantasy returns outside of clean sheets.

But as we approach two Double Gameweeks in the space of a month for the reigning champions, he looks like the only representative of the City rearguard who will guarantee us (injuries permitting) six starts in the next four Gameweeks. And he’s never been cheaper in FPL!

Arsenal and Newcastle United may be leading the way for fewest goals conceded in 2022/23 but Manchester City remain out in front for most of the key underlying stats (expected goals conceded (xGC), for example), while our Rate My Team tool has Ederson as the not just the top projected points scorer over the next six Gameweeks but also the best-value custodian.

Confirmed doubles for Manchester United and Arsenal see David de Gea (£4.9m) and Aaron Ramsdale (£4.9m) rise a place, with de Gea potentially set for a second Double Gameweek if rumours are to be believed. Their doubles are slightly tarnished by some tricky fixtures, with United facing the top two in the next two Gameweeks and the Gunners locking horns with three big-six clubs from Gameweeks 20-23.

But these sub-£5.0m goalkeepers trail only Nick Pope (£5.4m) for clean sheets in 2022/23 and their clubs are top-four material for xGC in the last six matches and in the season overall.

Joint-second in FPL for points, David Raya (£4.6m) is the newest entry on our Watchlist. Brentford’s next three home matches are against Bournemouth, Southampton and Crystal Palace, three of the four worst teams for xG in the current campaign.

But it’s as much to do with stops as it is with clean sheets for Raya; no-one has more save points (21) in 2022/23. The Bees have allowed more shots on target than any other club but are in the top half for fewest ‘big chances’ conceded. In a nutshell: lots of low-quality efforts for the Spaniard to throw his cap on and boost his FPL score with, fewer gilt-edged opportunities to spoil the occasional clean sheet. Perfect!

THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL DEFENDERS

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