This Members article series explores the expected goals (xG) data from the last six matches, assessing each side from an attacking and defensive perspective.
We also identify the top expected goal involvement (xGI) performers.
TEAMS
EXPECTED GOALS (XG): LAST SIX MATCHES
Mauricio Pochettino may have underachieved at Chelsea this season, but over the last six matches, they are top for xG.
They are also first in terms of creating quality opportunities, according to Opta, with their 22 ‘big chances’ the joint-highest in the division, level with Newcastle United.
Sure, they’ve benefitted from four Cole Palmer (£6.2m) penalties in Gameweeks 30-35, but even if you remove spot-kicks, they still sit a very respectable fourth:
The signs, at least from an attacking perspective, also look good Burnley, who have now scored at least one goal in seven of their last eight matches.
With Wilson Odobert (£5.0m), Lyle Foster (£4.7m) and David Datro Fofana (£5.0m) all in good form, Newcastle might not have it all their own way at Turf Moor on Saturday.
As for Brighton and Hove Albion, they are on a run of just one win from nine and the primary issue is scoring goals.
Over the last six, they have accrued a total of just 4.54 xG, scoring twice. The chances just aren’t coming anymore, despite Roberto De Zerbi refusing to compromise on his attacking philosophy.
It’s probably best to avoid their defensive assets, too.
Forthcoming opponents Aston Villa, Newcastle, Chelsea and Manchester United have combined for 57 goals and 45.3 xG over the last six.
EXPECTED GOALS CONCEDED (XGC): LAST SIX MATCHES
