Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Q&A, giving his opinion on Tijjani Reijnders (£5.7m), the best Arsenal triple-up and whether it’s time to start Marc Guiu (£4.3m)!
Q: Is going triple Arsenal defence overkill or differential? They have considerably the best defence in the league and Jurrien Timber/Riccardo Calafiori are due another massive haul soon. Viktor Gyokeres feels like a six-point ceiling, while I love Bukayo Saka but it’s mainly assist potential with him and he might not always be on penalties.
(via Riders of Yohan)
A: It feels funny to say this but at this point, if you own just one Arsenal defender, every time they keep a clean sheet, you are losing rank. If you own two, you’re pretty much making a small gain in rank, as most of the engaged community has already doubled up on the Gunners’ backline.
So, I do get the appeal of going with the triple-up on their defence. They are averaging 0.6 expected goals conceded (xGC) per game and have conceded just three goals, despite playing Manchester United, Newcastle United, Liverpool and Manchester City already. These are the best underlying numbers we have seen defensively since Opta started recording xG numbers.
I think Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.4m) and Jurrien Timber (£6.0m) are the clear two standout picks there in that defence. So I think if we are talking picking on a clean slate, say on a Wildcard, the question then becomes: who is the third? The options are David Raya (£5.7m), William Saliba (£6.0m), Riccardo Calafiori (£5.8m), Eberechi Eze (£7.6m), Declan Rice (£6.6m), Viktor Gyokeres (£9.0m) and Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) the options in midfield.
Let’s talk about their attack first. I think Eze and Rice hold less appeal; going with a defender over either of these two is more clear-cut. In attack, I think Saka and Gyokeres are both good picks. Gyokeres did score twice in the UEFA Champions League and the goals will come in the league too for the Swedish international. But again, here, it’s debatable whether he’s necessary, with forwards like Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.6m) and Nick Woltemade (£7.4m) appearing to be more talismanic and putting their hands up.
Saka, over the last two weeks, has demonstrated he has many routes to points: penalties (at least a share), set pieces, defensive contribution (DefCon) and bonus. I think he holds more appeal than the other defensive picks.
Now, let’s talk about the other defensive options. Saliba at £6.0m doesn’t have the goal threat or the DefCon potential, so I think that’s one that feels lower ceiling, so it’s really between Calafiori and Raya.
With Raya, I think you can get a similar level of output, maybe a few points fewer with Pope. The Newcastle shotstopper makes more saves and has better bonus potential, which I think, over the long run, might level out the increased clean sheets for Raya. So, the only one I’d consider for a triple-up is Calafiori. Arteta has clearly given his full-backs more license to get forward and the attacking threat from the Italian is significant. There is a bit more of a rotation risk than Timber due to how good Myles Lewis-Skelly (£5.2m) is, but the Italian international is still a top pick. This is, of course, when buying fresh, cart-blanche.
That being said, if you already hold Raya and Gabriel, I think adding Timber may be easier than adding Saka, who I still really like. That’s a great triple-up and lets you get another more expensive midfielder like Bruno Fernandes (£8.9m) in midfield instead of Saka. I still rank Timber and Gabriel both over Saka as FPL picks this season.
Q: Would you start Marc Guiu ahead of Tijjani Reijnders this week?
(via FPL Virgin)
A: Marc Guiu (£4.3m) started for Chelsea in the UEFA Champions League against Ajax and scored his first Champions League goal. He was then substituted at half-time for Tyrique George (£4.9m), who came on and scored himself.
The suspension of Malo Gusto (£4.9m) poses a problem for Enzo Maresca. The Frenchman has been used in midfield at times this season, as he was at Nottingham Forest in Enzo Fernandez‘s (£6.7m) absence. So this could mean Enzo being required in a midfield role alongside Moises Caicedo (£5.9m), which would mean Joao Pedro (£7.5m) playing in his favoured no 10 position, and Guiu (or maybe George) starting up front.
Maresca has options, though. He could go for Romeo Lavia (£4.9m) in midfield, but that would be his third start in a week, which the Chelsea boss may be reluctant to do given his injury issues. He could also play Facundo Buonanotte (£4.8m) in the ’10’ with Enzo in midfield, though, if he still wants to persist with Pedro up top.
So, while a start for Guiu is, in my opinion as a Chelsea fan, a fairly likely scenario, it is far from certain. I would still go with Tijjani Reijnders (£5.7m). The Dutchman has some minutes risk himself but I think he will come back into the starting line-up after being benched midweek against Villareal.
Reijnders deserves more discussion, though, which we shall do in the next question.
Q: Who is a priority sell between Iliman Ndiaye (fixtures turning) and Tijjani Reijnders (minutes lessening)? If the former, is Ndiaye to Enzo Fernandez worth it for a -4?
Q. Who should be in my starting XI this week: Tijjani Reijnders or Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall?
(via @Hobbes3103 and @SaifRah16063319)
A: Reijnders was left on the bench for Manchester City’s Champions League game at Villarreal and while you could read that into his minutes being better for the weekend, you also have to consider that his replacement was Bernardo Silva (£6.3m), who also scored a goal and played very well.
Manchester City’s injury room is getting more vacant, with Mateo Kovacic (£5.9m) and Rayan Cherki (£6.3m) back fit and Rodri (£6.3m) soon to follow. So, there is more competition for places. In the easier fixtures, Pep Guardiola can afford to use Cherki in the same role as Reijnders is playing now. So, I think long term, he is a much easier sell than Iliman Ndiaye (£6.5m), who is still an excellent pick even when the fixtures turn.
I would not take a hit for Enzo, though. Sunderland will not be pushovers, in my opinion, and Reijnders could still start and get some joy against Villa.
I would also start Reijnders over Kiernan Dewsbury–Hall (£5.0m) this week.
