Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Q&A ahead of Gameweek 17.
Q: Can Bukayo Saka (£10.3m) be sacrificed to target the terrible teams? Specifically because we’ll want to get in Hugo Ekitike (£8.6m) next week and need the funds.
(via Defcons are for Kinnear)
A: The last time Saka failed to get fewer than four points was in Gameweek 10, against Burnley, when he was unlucky not to come away with a brace after fluffing two big chances.
Over the last six Gameweeks, he’s racked up two goals, four assists and hit the defensive contribution (DefCon) threshold twice. Admittedly, he’s only hit double-digit hauls a couple of times over that period, so you could make the argument that he’s not an ‘explosive’ pick, but I think the routes to points with DefCons, set-pieces and likely penalties mean he can go big in any game.
You can also make a case that Noni Madueke’s (£6.8m) impressive form could eat into his minutes/starts, but with the title race now well and truly on, I don’t think Mikel Arteta will be resting his best player, especially as the opponents over the festive period – Everton, Brighton and Hove Albion, Aston Villa and Bournemouth – are far from obliging.
Assuming you already own Bruno Fernandes (£9.3m) and Phil Foden (£8.8m), I don’t really see a standout midfielder you can downgrade him to right now either. Maybe you’re looking at Dominik Szoboszlai (£6.7m), but I am still not entirely convinced on the Hungarian as a long-term FPL option. As a short-term pick for Gameweeks 18-20, maybe.
So all things considered, I would try to keep Saka, but we live in a very different FPL ecosystem at the moment. Tying up all your money with transfers in hand can feel a bit suffocating, and you want to move players around to target teams like Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley, so I get moving off him as well. Of the popular midfield trio (Fernandes, Foden and Saka), he is the one I think would be most expendable as you just don’t see Arsenal scoring loads of goals in any of those aforementioned games.
Q: Is Ekitike a must-have alongside Erling Haaland (£15.0m)?
(via Snoopydog))
A: The absence of Mohamed Salah (£14.0m) to the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) and the injury to Cody Gakpo (£7.4m) was always going to provide an opportunity for consistent gametime to one of Liverpool’s attackers, and Ekitike has firmly established himself as the frontrunner for the number nine role. Given what we have seen with their new diamond formation, I think the Frenchman will be playing alongside Alexander Isak (£10.3m), not instead of, at least in the short-term.
Those last three words are relevant, though – I don’t think Ekitike is a long-term pick, beyond say their Burnley fixture in Gameweek 22 against Burnley. You can even make the case that his minutes could be at risk after Gameweek 19 against Leeds United, as that’s when the turnaround for fixtures reduces. The spacing between Gameweek 17 (seven days), Gameweek 18 (seven days) and Gameweek 19 (four days) is quite generous.
Form does increase minutes, though, and if he keeps firing, the expected minutes go up each week. There are some fitness concerns, however. He had cramp after playing 70 minutes in the last match and games in close proximity could mean fewer minutes, even if he starts them all.
But there is definitely merit in it in the short-term and it may be worth making the move, especially if you have most of your transfers leftover from last week. Over his last two starts, no player has attempted more shots in the box (11) or been afforded more big chances (four) than Ekitike and he also tops the expected goals (xG) charts. Despite their defensive struggles, Liverpool have still fared well in attack and are ranked fifth for goals scored (26) and fourth for shots in the box.
Additionally, their next three opponents have struggled defensively; Wolves have conceded 35 (20th ), Leeds have conceded 30 (17th ) and Fulham have conceded 26 (15th). There’s currently no standout fourth midfielder to go alongside Saka, Fernandes and Foden, so I do like the idea of potentially moving to a three-forward formation to accommodate Ekitike alongside Haaland and Igor Thiago (£7.2m). Jarrod Bowen (£7.5m) is an easy exit if Ekitike doesn’t live up to expectations.
Getting him instead of Thiago is trickier, assuming the Brentford forward is fit. That’s a big assumption, though, and I think we give him the Wolves fixture regardless. If Thiago is unavailable for Gameweek 18 or there are still doubts around his fitness, then I think Thiago to Ekitike almost becomes a no-brainer move. So right now, Ekitike is not a must alongside Haaland. He might be by Gameweek 18, though!
Q: Should we sell Antoine Semenyo (£7.6m) after Burnley at home?
Q: Is Semenyo still a good long-term pick?
(via FPL Virgin and @TheFPLManiac)
A: As mentioned earlier, with the lack of a consistent fourth midfielder – Harry Wilson (£5.6m) could admittedly make a case – there is nothing wrong with holding onto Semenyo past the Burnley fixture.
Bournemouth showed against Manchester United that they are capable of scoring goals even away to the ‘big dogs’, and Andoni Iraola is not a manager who will ever park the bus.
Are there potentially better options with short-term fixture runs you can target, like Szoboszlai, Matheus Cunha (£7.9m), etc? Yes. But there is nothing wrong with holding Semenyo either. I think he will want to put his talents on further display this period for his likely January move.
Q: Is Bowen just as good a pick as Ekitike? He’s 100% nailed and his fixtures from Gameweek 18 don’t get much better, whereas Ekitike could make way for Isak in one match.
Q: Bowen or Ekitike?
(via Pompel and @NZFPL1)
A: Bowen’s stats don’t make for great reading, but we must mention the caveat that this dataset is under two different managers. He has been afforded just two (!) big chances all season. That is an absurdly low number. I couldn’t believe it when I checked, especially when you keep in mind that Ekitike has been afforded four in the last two games alone.
He has been playing largely out wide though, and Nuno Espirito Santo has tweaked his system a little bit to get the England international more central, so these numbers may improve. Nevertheless, West Ham United remain in the bottom six for xG (6.93) over the last six Gameweeks, and I don’t think this number will improve significantly over the upcoming period, given how Nuno sets his team up.
His strikers will never have great underlying numbers, as Chris Wood (£7.2m) comes to mind last season. But this does mean that when he does score, it’s likely a seven-point goal, as this will bring bonus as well. The appeal of 90 minutes consistently over a busy period is strong, too.
The run of fixtures is also obliging, particularly after Fulham and Brighton. If you can’t stretch to Ekitike, I can understand going for Bowen instead, but I don’t think Isak is a threat in the short-term, as mentioned earlier. Ideally, if you have some transfers banked, going for Ekitike in Gameweek 18-19 appeals, with a move to Bowen for Wolves in Gameweek 20.
Q: Cunha or Szoboszlai?
(via @FPLBilly1001)
A: Over the last four Gameweeks, Cunha beats Szoboszlai for xG (2.10/0.73), penalty area touches (28/6) and shots in the box (13/2), with the Hungarian international ahead for chances created (5/9).
Meanwhile, Manchester United are top for xG (12.96) over the last six Gameweeks, while Liverpool are ninth (9.03). However, it remains to be seen how the Red Devils will cope with the absences of Bryan Mbeumo (£8.2m), Amad Diallo (£6.3m) and Noussair Mazraoui (£4.9m) to AFCON.
Either way, I expect Cunha’s minutes to go up now, and he will likely be part of the United front three, regardless of how they set up. Szoboszlai will always offer limited goal threat by virtue of lower penalty box touches. He does potentially have some penalty share though, as he took the spot-kick in the Champions League when Isak was off the pitch, so that does add to his appeal. There’s also the threat of a suspension with Szoboszlai on four yellow cards.
All the above being considered, I would go for Cunha. I feel there is a greater chance of a haul there.
That’s it from me for this week. I will be away on holiday with my family for Christmas and will be back for another Q&A in Gameweek 19.
Wishing everyone and their families a Happy Christmas!
