Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Q&A, giving his opinion on Antoine Semenyo, Arsenal defenders, Chelsea options and more.
Q: Keep Antoine Semenyo or replace him? If the latter, who is the best replacement from this list: Declan Rice, Morgan Rogers, Kevin Schade, Anthony Gordon, Dominik Szoboszlai or Bruno Guimaraes?
(via IAWC)
A: Given the transfer rumours around Antoine Semenyo (£7.7m), it is safe to say that he will not remain a Bournemouth player much beyond Gameweek 21, so it’s only a matter of when, not if. That being said, it could give you the opportunity to have four Manchester City players for a short period – although it remains to be seen whether the Ghanaian international slots straight into Pep Guardiola’s starting line-up or is given some time to acclimatise.
The above table from the Members Area is sorted by non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI) for midfielders and as you can see, neither Dominik Szoboszlai (£6.6m) nor Declan Rice (£7.2m) features in the top 20. So while these two guys are still good FPL picks by virtue of their routes to points and nailed minutes, if you’re looking for open play attacking threat, they’re not the best options.
Kevin Schade (£7.0m) has zoomed up to the top of the list after his hat-trick against Bournemouth but I think that was a match-up that suited him, with the Cherries often leaving acres of space for opposition runners on counter-attacks. He doesn’t really have any routes to points except open play threat, so I am put off by that.
A similar argument can be made for Morgan Rogers (£7.4m), though he has shown some free-kick prowess recently. Rogers’ points distribution is also interesting; he’s got 92 FPL points this season, and 45 of these have come in just three matches. So it’s often feast or famine with Rogers but the fact that Villa are genuinely in a title race and he has very secure minutes over a busy period, I think he’s a great option.
With the Newcastle midfielders, I prefer Anthony Gordon (£7.4m) over Bruno Guimaraes (£7.0m). The four yellow cards for the latter isn’t a major deterrent but I just think Gordon and Lewis Hall’s (£5.2m) link-up on the left is going to be key for Newcastle and penalties are obviously a major draw for the England international.
So, if I were to round up my favoured Sememyo replacements, I think I would go: Gordon, Rogers, then Rice. With Rice, it really depends if you want to double up on Arsenal’s defence or if you own Bukayo Saka (£10.3m) already. I still prefer backing the Gunners’ backline over their attack.
Q: It is the same old question but I think this week is probably the most relevant it has been recently. When do we captain someone other than Erling Haaland? Does it make a difference if you’re chasing or leading?
(via 112kane112)
A: I think it is still too early in the season to think about the chasing/leading argument. The only time I would take on Erling Haaland (£15.1m) is if he’s away to one of the top six/eight sides but you need someone who is equally explosive. Matheus Cunha (£8.1m) could be one this week against his old club but I thought Sunderland looked poor against Leeds United without their AFCON contingent and Dan Ballard (£4.7m).
Q: What to do with your Arsenal defenders if you have the popular combo of Piero Hincapie and Jurrien Timber, especially with Gabriel Magalhaes looking to be fit again?
(via @alexwaterbaby)
A: I don’t think Riccardo Calafiori (£5.7m) will be available against Villa, given the quick turnaround and the Italian’s late withdrawal against Brighton. So, it is reasonable to assume Piero Hincapie (£5.5m) will be playing left-back, as Mikel Arteta is not really showing faith in Myles Lewis-Skelly (£5.1m) this season. Hincapie is a hold for this week, at least.
With Jurrien Timber (£6.4m), I still think he is one of the most explosive defenders in the game. If you got on him early like I did, then I would still want to keep him long-term. He was not pictured in training ahead of Villa and we didn’t get any presser from Arteta (not like that would have given us much anyway) but the rumours are it was a precautionary rest against Brighton. Either way, I think Arteta goes full strength with the result in the reverse fixture and Villa’s genuine title credentials.
Q: Everton defence or Newcastle defence?
(via@D1_sizzle)
A: Everton’s defence has been posting poor numbers, as you can see in the image below. They gave up nearly 2.0 xG to Burnley and were fortunate not to concede.
What I look for when analysing a defence is what is their ratio of big chances conceded to open play goal attempts. As you can see, Newcastle have conceded just eight big chances over the last six Gameweeks; no side have conceded fewer. They are also third for open play goal attempts conceded, with a ratio of 20% of big chances to open play goal attempts.
Everton have conceded 8.55 xG but have conceded a whopping 16 big chances, double the number that of Newcastle. The actual open play goal attempts conceded are not significantly different, just 40 vs 49, but the Toffees’ ratio of big chances conceded to open play goal attempts conceded is 33%, which is far worse.
However, it’s not just about the team defences. What picks are you targeting within those teams? Michael Keane (£4.8m) and James Tarkowski (£5.5m) both look much more reliable for DefCon potential and have more set-piece threat than somebody like Malick Thiaw (£5.0m).
Leiws Hall is an interesting one. He was quite attacking against Manchester United but I still worry a bit about his injury issues over a busy period.
With Keane, there’s also the looming threat of Jarrad Branthwaite (£5.3m), though his return timeline is a little bit unclear. Will he oust him and play alongside Tarkowski? Could one of them play at fullback? We don’t know for sure yet.
Long story short: I prefer Keane with the DefCon potential and set-piece threat, despite Everton being a worse defence. Tarkowski is probably the pick of the bunch if money not an issue.
Q: Sell Jurrien Timber for Gabriel Magalhaes?
(via @James_Co24)
A: As you can see in the table below, Timber’s numbers are still decent even though they are down from earlier in the season.
The only situation where I can advocate selling Timber to Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.3m) is if you already own three Arsenal players, e.g., something like Raya/Timber/Saka or Timber/Saka/Rice. Otherwise, I would be looking to get Gabriel alongside Timber, not instead of.
Q: Who are the best Chelsea options to consider? Cole Palmer has been cold for a year, while Joao Pedro will share minutes with Liam Delap.
(via Defcons are for Kinnear)
A: Chelsea’s fixture schedule is super rough now with no free midweek for a long, long time. This is exacerbated with the London side’s progression to the Carabao Cup semi-finals, which will be spread over two midweek nights. Additionally, due to their poor position in the Champions League, they will likely have to go through a round of playoffs before the last 16.
This means that picking a nailed Chelsea attacker is very difficult in the short term, especially while Cole Palmer (£10.4m) builds up his fitness. I would avoid their attack entirely. I think the only investible picks there are Trevoh Chalobah (£5.6m) and Robert Sanchez (£4.9m).
Q: Which Manchester United defender should we go for for United’s excellent short-term fixtures?
(via FPL Virgin)
A: I’m personally not a fan of Manchester United’s defence, even in the short term. The games against Burnley and Leeds United are away, and both promoted sides will fancy their chances against the Red Devils. They won’t necessarily sit in a deep block and offer them respect. Wolves are capable of scoring, as well, as they have shown against Arsenal and Liverpool.
The only situation where I can see it making sense is as a Joe Rodon (£4.0m) replacement; somebody you can tuck on your bench after the next three Gameweeks and not worry about him.
Q: FPL New Year’s resolutions? Huzzah, tis the best question by far and is sure to be answered! T’will generate much discussion in the Kingdom! Thankee, thankee, thankee!
(via The Knights Template)
A: We often put so much emotion into a game about a game, and it’s something I tell myself every year but rarely succeed: don’t take this game too seriously. Too much of it is dependent on luck, so just be comfortable with the decisions you make and your thought process. FPL and football in general is an escape from the travails and challenges of everyday life, so enjoy the connections you make and the good moments when they do come by. Blame the bad ones on variance.
Wishing everyone and their families a Happy New Year!
