Spot the Differential
19 February 2026 205 comments
avfc82 avfc82
Share:

Our Gameweek 27 differentials column highlights three low-owned Fantasy Premier League (FPL) assets for your consideration.

All three of the players have an ownership of 5% or lower.


RAYAN

FPL notes: “Amazing” Rayan, £4.2m goalkeeper starts + Summerville scores again

  • FPL ownership: 1.0%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW27-31 fixtures: whu | SUN | BRE | bur | MUN

An away match against a West Ham United team that has failed to keep a clean sheet on home turf all season prompts us to consider Rayan (£5.5m).

The Brazilian winger has enjoyed a fine start to life on the south coast, having either scored or assisted in each of his first three appearances.

He’s also been directly involved in nine shots across his two starts (six of his own, three created for others), the joint-most of any Bournemouth player.

With positional rivals David Brooks (£5.0m) and Marcus Tavernier (£5.3m) returning to fitness, Rayan isn’t a guaranteed starter in every match. However, when you factor in his height and physicality, he could be a really important player against aerially dominant teams such as Sunderland and Brentford.

“It’s one of the things we were looking for in the winter market because this season we have lost Antoine Semenyo and Dango Ouattara, two of the most physical wingers in the league. We needed someone with some physicality and with set plays given that we’re quite short, so I think he’s added these things to the team.” – Andoni Iraola on Rayan

Just one bad performance, or another mistake like the penalty he conceded at Everton, especially if it proves costly this time, could leave him vulnerable, but Bournemouth are in decent form right now, and it may very well be Rayan’s shirt to lose.

The left flank has been a weak spot for West Ham of late, too, with five assists in the last six Gameweeks coming from that side of the pitch:

Above: West Ham United’s chances created conceded (assists in green) over the last six Gameweeks

So, with an ownership of only 1.0%, Rayan can be an effective differential fourth or fifth midfielder for the upcoming period.


MICHAEL KAYODE

  • FPL ownership: 0.7%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW27-31 fixtures: BHA | bur | bou | WOL | lee

A favourable home match against goal-shy Brighton and Hove Albion, plus some really tasty fixtures to follow, leads us to consider Michael Kayode (£4.5m).

The Italian defender has impressed at the Gtech Community Stadium this season, emerging as an effective attacking outlet down the right flank.

Indeed, Kayode is first among Brentford players for passes received in the final-third (201), while only Mikkel Damsgaard (£5.6m) has created more chances (25).

He’s also delivered more successful long throws than any other player in the Premier League, with 22.

Keane Lewis-Potter (£4.8m) netted a thumping header from one of those launched balls in Gameweek 26, of course.

As for Brentford, they are third on our Season Ticker for fixture difficulty over the next six Gameweeks, but from a defensive perspective, they move up to first. That’s partly because four of their next five opponents are in the bottom seven for expected goals (xG) in Gameweeks 21-26:

Looking further ahead, Brentford also entertain Everton, Fulham and West Ham in Gameweeks 32-35, so for those managers who have already used their second Wildcards, the long-term fixture outlook adds further appeal.

Up first, however, is Brighton, who are in really poor attacking form, having failed to score in each of their last two matches, a period which has seen them create just 1.24 xG.

As a nailed-on option in Brentford’s backline, it suggests Kayode can be a really decent set-and-forget budget option for the remainder of the 2025/26 season.


NICO O’REILLY

FP

  • FPL ownership: 4.8%
  • Price: £4.9m
  • GW27-31 fixtures: NEW | lee | NFO | whu | –

Nico O’Reilly (£4.9m) was one of the standout Fantasy performers in Gameweek 26, with 13 points thanks to a goal, a clean sheet and a share of the bonus.

The England international is, of course, listed as a defender in FPL, but featured as an ‘out-of-position’ left-sided No 8 in Pep Guardiola’s 4-1-3-2 formation.

O’Reilly consequently produced five shots against Fulham, the most of any player, as well as racking up five penalty box touches, another match high.

“I’m loving it. I love it in the middle, try to dictate the game and try to get in the box to score goals. He [Guardiola] is very big on second balls, duels and dominating the midfield. I think I play a big part in that, using my body to win the ball back and counter. That’s what he’s trying to get across to me.” – Nico O’Reilly

Newcastle United visit the Etihad Stadium this weekend, and although the Magpies are in decent form, with three successive wins in all competitions, they could suffer from a European hangover after their midweek trip to Baku.

They’ve also kept just one clean sheet in their last 16 away matches in all competitions.

Furthermore, Man City put three goals past Eddie Howe’s troops in the recent EFL Cup semi-final at the Etihad.

As for O’Reilly, his advanced, ‘out-of-position’ role is yet another string to his bow from a Fantasy perspective – and the chief reason why his underlying attacking stats were so impressive against Fulham.

Tijjani Reijnders (£5.1m) is arguably the biggest threat to O’Reilly’s minutes in the current set-up, but City are in a good moment right now, and Guardiola may choose to maintain this approach for a little while longer.


price change predictions
205 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. chilli con kone
    • 13 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Start 1:

    Hill (whu)
    Andersen (sun)

    1. Amartey Partey
      • 6 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Hill

  2. The Knights Template
    • 12 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Bottomed (giggety)!

    Who on earth do I bench this GW? Dubravka and Esteve are givens but who should join them on the pine? Grateful views, thankee!

    Verbruggen, Dubravka
    Chalobah, Gabriel, Timber, Mukiele, Esteve
    Rice, Bruno, Mbeumo, Semenyo, Enzo
    Watkins, DCL, Haaland

    1. Brosstan
      • 11 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Timber for sure. And DCL probably.

    2. Qaiss
      • 10 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Team value FC

    3. Captain Mal
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 1 day ago

      If you read the small print under the "it is shameful to boast" declaration, you will notice the following clarification : "posting your team can be considered as boasting, when your team is too good".

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 12 Years
        5 months, 1 day ago

        🙂

    4. Mr Turnip 1
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 1 day ago

      DCL and Mukiele

    5. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Timber DCL

      1. I have no Wirtz
        5 months, 1 day ago

        This

  3. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 12 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Raya (dub)
    Gab chalobah Munoz(alderete Andersen)
    Mbeumo bruno F Rogers rice Enzo
    Haaland Pedro (c) (mane)

    3 FTS .3 itb

    Save one more transfer?

    Cheers

    1. FPLMACKEM
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      I'd roll. Team looks good as it is. I'd look to shift Chelsea players and Munoz next week.

    2. Mr Turnip 1
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Yes easy roll nice job

    3. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 12 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Thank you both !

    4. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      No way I roll without Thiago.

      Rice + Mane > Thiago + KDH

      1. Mr Turnip 1
        • 1 Year
        5 months, 1 day ago

        This is a good shout tbf

  4. Deanamo Jammy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Kayode has zero attacking threat.

  5. zensum
    • 13 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Who would u pick on WC?
    A) Dango
    B) Rayan

    Appreciate your help and reasons why?

    1. Mr Turnip 1
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 1 day ago

      A, more nailed, more FPL pedigree

      1. zensum
        • 13 Years
        5 months, 1 day ago

        Thk u

  6. FPLMACKEM
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Raya
    Virgil, Gabriel, Chalobah, Munoz
    Enzo, Bruno, Rice, Anderson
    Ekitike, Haaland (c)

    Dubravka, Wilson, Andersen, Guiu
    5ft 2.0 itb

    Rice to?

    A Semenyo
    B Dando/Shade
    C Rogers

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 12 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Same boat and tempted to keep rice one more week...

      1. FPLMACKEM
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        5 months, 1 day ago

        I don't mind keeping Rice this week, just don't want him long term. I just don't want to burn a transfer.

        1. Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 12 Years
          5 months, 1 day ago

          Ooh just realised you have 5 FTS ! A for me

          1. FPLMACKEM
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            5 months, 1 day ago

            Cheers. I am actually leaning towards Semenyo anyway.

        2. Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 12 Years
          5 months, 1 day ago

          Help above would be appreciated

    2. Mr Turnip 1
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 1 day ago

      A

      1. Mr Turnip 1
        • 1 Year
        5 months, 1 day ago

        Actually, Wirtz

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Dango + Guiu > Thiago

  7. I have no Wirtz
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Roefs
    Gabriel Munoz Chalobah
    BrunoF Mbeumo Semenyo Rice
    Haaland JP Watkins

    Dub Zubimendi Collins Thiaw

    I was keen to do Rice>Palmer, but after last night lost conviction. Not sure what to do. Team seems decent, don’t want too much benching headache.

    Please pick two from these options:

    A) Rice > Palmer
    B) Watkins > Thiago
    C) Zubimendi > Dango
    D) Collins > VVD

    E) roll and next week JP > Thiago
    F) roll and next week Munoz > VVD
    G) roll and next week Watkins > Ekitike

    H) roll and reassess

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 12 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      E

    2. Mr Turnip 1
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 1 day ago

      AB looks good

      1. Mr Turnip 1
        • 1 Year
        5 months, 1 day ago

        Actually nevermind

        1. Mr Turnip 1
          • 1 Year
          5 months, 1 day ago

          AD and then E next week

  8. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Is sarr on penalty or will be JSL?
    Wanted to punt on sarr for differential capt or just capt enzo?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 7 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Probably give Sarr the higher pen share due to scoring Palace's last pen.

      Pen record:
      Sarr 7/9
      Larsen 4/5

  9. Athletic Nasherbo
    • 9 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Gomez > KdH or just play Alderete?

    1. Manani
      • 14 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Alderte

  10. Manani
    • 14 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Pope
    OReilly Gab Chalobah
    Rogers Rice Wirtz Enzo
    Ekiteke Haaland JP
    (Dub Timber Mukiele Wilson)

    roll FT? (yes I know no Bruno, but ML rule for no united player)

    1. Mr Turnip 1
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 1 day ago

      You could roll. Rice to Semenyo looks ok too

  11. Mr Turnip 1
    • 1 Year
    5 months, 1 day ago

    3.3 ITB, 1FT

    Raya
    Gab Timber Munoz
    Fruno Mbeumo Enzo Wilson Anderson
    Haaland DCL

    Dub Andersen Tark A.Barnes

    A) DCL -> Thiago, Enzo to Wirtz/Semenyo next week

    B) A. Barnes -> Thiago, bench DCL. Enzo to Dango next week

    C) Get Semenyo now (and who to sell if this?)

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 12 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      B

  12. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Garner to odango for free?

  13. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Or gyok to thiago is better?

    1. Mr Turnip 1
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 1 day ago

      This is much better

  14. jeffa79
    • 12 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Is it worth doing Sanchez, Dorgu and Evanilson to Kelleher, Hill and Pedro?

    3 FTs so no hits.

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 12 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      No

    2. FantasyClub
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Looks good to me

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Depends who you're benching. Pedro is great for this week but not as good for subsequent weeks.

  15. thetommy14
    • 5 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Thoughts on this team?
    Start Andersen or Mukiele?
    0,0m ITB

    Verbruggen
    Gabriel, Timber, Muñoz, Andersen
    Palmer, Bruno, Mbeumo, Wirtz, Semenyo
    Haaland

    Dubravka, Mukiele, Kroupi, Guiu

  16. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Watkins anybody?

  17. amenon
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Hey guys took the swing and went triple arsenal defence before DGW26 and am licking my wounds now.

    my two questions: 1. Timber or Reinildo this week? 2. Cunha out to Dango?

    Raya
    Reinildo-Gabriel-Richards
    Bruno-Mbeumo-Cunha-Enzo-Rogers
    Haaland-Thiago

    Bench: Dub Timber Andersen Guiu

    Love this community!!

    1. Mr Turnip 1
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 1 day ago

      1 Timber
      2 you could probably do better than Dango for Cunha. Semenyo/Wirtz if you can afford

      1. amenon
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        5 months, 1 day ago

        u back arsenal triple defence against spurs away? im so nervous after how bad gw27 went for me.

        plan was to do get dango + wirtz for enzo + cunha next week but bringing it a week early.

        avoiding semenyo cos of bgw32

        1. amenon
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          5 months, 1 day ago

          bgw31*

  18. AF90
    • 14 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Guiu, Rice & Saliba -> Thaigo, Semenyo, Senesi for a -8?

    I don't normally take hits and haven't taken any this season. I'm on a streak of 4 red arrows and feel behind on my transfers. Thoughts on this? Thanks

    1. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      I wouldn't. Maybe just Saliba to Hill (not Senesi) for free, start him and Rice, then Guiu to Thiago next GW

      There's probably someone who's a more urgent sale than Rice in your midfield, if you must get Semenyo

      1. AF90
        • 14 Years
        5 months, 1 day ago

        Why do you favour Hill over Senesi?

        Enzo needs to go but can't sell this GW.

        1. Baps Hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          5 months, 1 day ago

          Same problem with Enzo. The issue with selling Rice is that he prolly gets defcon vs Spurs and if he gets an A, he may get also bonus points.

          1. AF90
            • 14 Years
            5 months, 1 day ago

            Yeah don't paticularly want to sell Rice but think Semenyo is such a good option atm. Will bench Enzo next week and rotate with Wilson until GW31.

            May even go for an early bench boost.

  19. thetommy14
    • 5 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Start Kayode or Mukiele?

    1. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Mukiele atm

  20. TorresMagic™
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 17 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Save or make a move?

    Raya Dub
    Gab Richards Muk (Tark Hall)
    Bruno Rice Enzo Sarr (Wilson)
    Haaland Ekitike Bowen

    3 FT, 0.1m bank

    Cheers.

    1. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Raya to Kelleher is tempting. Should be fine to roll for this GW though

    2. Mr Turnip 1
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Bowen to Thiago

      1. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 months, 1 day ago

        I would.

    3. TorresMagic™
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 17 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Cheers both.

  21. thetommy14
    • 5 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Bring in Andersen or Kayode?
    Leaning more towards Kayode…

    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Isn't Kayode the one throwing long balls? He isn't scoring from them. Andersen is perhaps little overrated, but plays Burnley gw31 and that is all that matters to me or my team atm. I don't actually really need him before that.

  22. Baps Hunter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Kelleher / Dub
    Gabriel*, Timber*(*), VvD, Andersen, Muñoz**
    Bruno, Mbeumo, Rice**, Rogers, Enzo*
    Haaland*, J Pedro*, Guiu**
    1 ft, 1.4 mitb

    So, I have 5 transfers, 2 Che starters with bad future fixtures soon and 6 players not starting gw31. No Semenyo or Thiago in my team. Am I going to manage this run in dead ending gw31 without taking a hit?

    1) Could there be merit in downgrading Rice to someone cheap gw31 starter and upgrading Guiu to Thiago (-4) now?
    2) Should I roll and sell starting Che assets for Thiago and someone next week?
    3) Rice to Semenyo now?

    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      I mean that I have 5 transfers before gw31.

    2. Mr Turnip 1
      • 1 Year
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Not 3 I think. 1+2 are valid

    3. AF90
      • 14 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Thinking similar lines....Semenyo & Thiago's fixtures are excellent for up until GW31 so it might be worth taking the hit now and it will pay off long term.

      I could do Rice -> Semenyo this week or Roll & get Thiago in with 2FT next week but I want both so considering a -8 this week tbh. Backing against Arsenal with their tougher fixtures and slight wobble while most will still have a triple up

      1. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 months, 1 day ago

        Taking -8 to bench Rogers home vs Leeds isn't for this team. I could sell Rice and Guiu for Dango and Thiago though (-4). They have Burnley away next and Leeds away come gw31.

  23. shal
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Donnarumma
    Mukiele, Gabriel, Timber, Chalobah
    Rice, Semenyo, B. Fernandes
    Tiago, J Padro, Haaland

    Bench: Dubravka, Garner, Enzo, Alderete

    I have 1 FT. Have used wildcard and planning to use FH in GW34. Need to replace Timber and Rice before GW31 and bench Gabriel and 3x city players in GW31). Planning on getting Virgil for Timber GW27. Wirtz for Enzo GW28 and maybe Wilson or Dango for Rice GW29.
    Q: any comments on the above transfer plan?
    Q: should I bench Mukiele or Enzo for GW27.

  24. Apollo Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Mane to Kroupi or keep him for Palace?

    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Waste of transfer prolly.

  25. thetommy14
    • 5 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Thoughts on this team? GTG?
    0,0m ITB

    Verbruggen
    Gabriel, Timber, Muñoz, Mukiele
    Palmer, Bruno, Mbeumo, Wirtz, Semenyo
    Haaland

    Dubravka, Kayode, Kroupi, Guiu

  26. SpaceCadet
    • 12 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Best option this gw? 1ft, 0.4m itb

    A. Timber > vvd/ senesi
    B. Anderson > dango
    C. Save ft

    Sanchez
    Gabriel timber Mukiele
    Bruno semenyo rice Enzo
    Haaland Pedro Thiago

    Dubravka Anderson diouf vdv

  27. amenon
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    start triple arsenal (raya, timber, gab) or bench timber for reinildo

    1. HellasLEAF
      • 17 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      B

  28. I have no Wirtz
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Who will score higher?

    Mukiele(FUL) or Munoz(WOL)

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 17 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      Depends if Munoz gets an attacking return.

    2. HellasLEAF
      • 17 Years
      5 months, 1 day ago

      I've stopped betting against Muk long time again. Munoz good shout too. Feel like both could concede though.

  29. HellasLEAF
    • 17 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Palmer or J. Pedro C

    or Haaland, if you must.

  30. The FPL Units
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    5 months, 1 day ago

    Current plan is to do Rice => Palmer this week for free. Then Enzo => Szobo

    Kelleher
    Timber Guehi Gab O'Reilly
    Rice* Enzo Bruno Mbeumo
    Haaland Thiago

    Dubs Anderson Kroupi Andersen

    Good moves?