Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Q&A, giving his opinion on Erling Haaland (£14.7m), Declan Rice (£7.5m), chip strategy and more.
Q: Having all chips available and chasing rank, is selling Erling Haaland that big a gamble at this time of the season?
(via Raoul Nogues)
A: This is really the big question for this week, so let’s address this first up. At the time of writing, we have no further clarity from Pep Guardiola since the post-match press conference against Leeds United. He gave nothing away as to the nature of Erling Haaland’s (£14.7m) injury or provide a timescale on his return but from the general noise, it doesn’t appear to be a significant injury, though that is of course presumption on my part at this point.
If Pep passes Haaland fit, then I think he is the standout captaincy option for Gameweek 29 against Nottingham Forest. In which case, I do think it is a gamble selling him. If Haaland is indeed a doubt, or out for even one Gameweek, I think it makes sense to sell him with your Wildcard still in hand. If he’s flagged for Gameweek 29, most won’t captain him so the risk factor is reduced, hence it isn’t as much of a gamble.
City have a short turnaround between their matches against Real Madrid so reduced minutes are still very likely away to West Ham United in Gameweek 30. Then, he likely blanks in Gameweek 31.
Of course, there exists the possibility that Manchester City could still play in Gameweek 31 (FA Cup result dependent), so perhaps wait a week to spread the funds.
It also comes down to who you’re replacing him with. For someone like me, who is on a two-striker setup and doesn’t own Hugo Ekitike (£9.1m), the move appeals more. I think over the next three Gameweeks, Ekitike outscores Haaland. The Tottenham Hotspur fixture in Gameweek 30 in particular a big draw.
For those who already own Ekitike and Igor Thiago (£7.2m), you’re struggling a little bit for replacements, and I think then you’re probably looking to someone like Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.7m), who has two good home fixtures in the next three, and use the extra cash to upgrade a midfielder to Mohamed Salah. But is Salah even a better pick today than say a Harry Wilson (£6.0m) in Gameweek 31? Is he even better than Florian Wirtz (£8.3m), who should be back by Gameweek 30? It’s a big gamble at this point. If you have enough faith in Salah to captain him over the next three Gameweeks and you strike gold, it could pay off handsomely.
Q: Should I do Declan Rice to Antoine Semenyo?
(via Snoop Udogie Dogg)
A: If Haaland’s minutes look risky, I think Antoine Semenyo (£8.2m) is potentially the best captain option this week. Does he warrant a transfer in based on that? I think there is some chance his minutes are reduced against West Ham in Gameweek 30 but he just looks too important to the team at the moment, so I think he will start against the Hammers as well.
If you’re well set up for Blank Gameweek 31 already, I would make the move. But if it’s going to warrant a hit to field a decent XI in 31, then perhaps less so. I also think someone like Bruno Fernandes (£10.0m) could potentially outscore Semenyo too, so there are captain alternatives there.
Q: Best strategy with all chips remaining?
(via TheBiffas)
A: This is very cup result dependent. We need to see which teams have a Blank Gameweek 34 and which teams enjoy a Double Gameweek 33. As of now, current wisdom, assuming a lot of the popular/big teams progress to the FA Cup semi-finals, is Wildcard Gameweek 32, Bench Boost in Double Gameweek 33 and Free Hit in Blank Gameweek 34, which is caused due to FA Cup blanks. However, if there are some cupsets, then potentially Free Hit in Gameweek 33 and Wildcard in Gameweek 34 could be viable too.
Q: How do you compare shot volume against xG? How important do you think shot volume is against xG?
(via z13)
A: This is an interesting question and a dilemma I had at the start of last year when picking between Rodrigo Muniz (£5.3m) and Chris Wood (£7.2m). Do I go for a forward who is getting a large volume of chances or do I go for one who is getting fewer chances but more high xG ones, what Opta classify as ‘big chances’.
I think with a player with high shot volume and low big chances, you are relying heavily on the quality of the player to finish them, and when he is on a hot streak, or in ‘good form’ there is a good chance of getting a few hauls over there. However, I think the guy that is consistently getting big chances has more of a chance of returning more consistently as simply put, they are easier opportunities to convert.
So I think average shot xg > Shot volume. Ideally I want a mix of both though.
Q: Are Declan Rice and Erling Haaland sells?
Q: If selling just one, who is a more priority sell: Rice or Haaland?
(via @Karan_G14 and @DanMatthewsAV)
A: Like in the case of Haaland, we have no further update from Mikel Arteta since the England international’s withdrawal on Sunday. Given the Spaniard’s usual lack of updates in his press conferences, it is highly unlikely we will get anything concrete today either.
Declan Rice (£7.5m) is arguably the most important player in Arsenal’s squad, moreso than Gabriel Magalhaes (£ in my opinion. If there is a chance of him being available, Arteta will risk him. It’s also highly unlikely that he comes on for a cameo; I think he either starts or will be out of the squad entirely.
That being said, if you have some free transfers and if you can do something like Haaland and Rice to Ekitike and Salah, it is a move I would make. There is an argument that you could make that move even if both Haaland and Rice are fit, with Gameweek 31 in mind, but then as I mentioned in the earlier response, backing against a fit Haaland for captaincy in Gameweek 29 could be a gamble.
In terms of priority sells, it depends on who you are replacing them with. In the case of Rice, you might want to get Wilson, who might miss out this Gameweek or be a doubt himself. With Haaland, you are maybe getting Ekitike, who has great fixtures over the next two-to-three weeks. So, the replacement for the forward might be better than the midfielder, and I think that should determine your priority sell. Forward plan your team to Gameweek 31 and see who you want in those positions.
