The final round of World Cup group games is almost upon us – but not every match will have something riding on it.
Seven nations have already qualified for the Round of 32, of which four are through as group winners. A further five countries are eliminated.
In this article, we look at what’s at stake in each group.
The group tables come from BBC Sport.
OVERVIEW
GROUP A
- Mexico are through as group winners.
- Korea Republic will be confirmed as runners-up if they get a point or more against South Africa.
- Czechia will be assured of at least third place with a win over Mexico.
- South Africa will be assured of at least third place with a win over Korea Republic.
- If Czechia or South Africa do finish third, they’ll probably need to win, as 1/2 points likely won’t be enough to finish as one of the eight best third-place teams.
GROUP B
- Canada will qualify as group winners with a draw or more against Switzerland.
- Switzerland will qualify with a draw against Canada. They will qualify as group winners with a victory.
- Bosnia-Herzegovina will be assured of third place with a draw or more against Qatar. They could mathematically still finish second but it would require a) Canada to lose and b) a big goal swing.
- Qatar will be assured of third place with a win over Bosnia-Herzegovina. They could mathematically still finish second but it would require a) Switzerland to lose and b) a big goal swing.
- If Bosnia-Herzegovina or Qatar do finish third, they’ll probably need to win, as 1/2 points likely won’t be enough to finish as one of the eight best third-place teams.
GROUP C
- Brazil will qualify with a draw or more against Scotland. They will be assured of being group winners if they win and Morocco don’t better their margin of victory by two or more goals.
- Morocco will qualify with a draw or more against Haiti. As above, topping the group is likely to come down to overcoming the current goal difference deficit on Brazil, unless Selecao slip up against Scotland.
- Scotland will qualify in at least second place with a win over Brazil. A draw will likely be enough to secure a best third-place finish, while they may progress even with a defeat.
- Haiti are eliminated.
GROUP D
- United States are through as group winners. As Turkiye are eliminated, their Round 3 meeting is a veritable dead rubber.
- Australia will be confirmed as runners-up if they get a point or more against Paraguay.
- Paraguay have to beat Australia to finish second.
- Even with a defeat, both Australia and Paraguay could still qualify as one of the best third-place teams. A draw would almost certainly be enough to send both sides through.
GROUP E
- Germany are through as group winners.
- Cote d’Ivoire will be confirmed as runners-up if they get a point or more against Curacao.
- Ecuador will be assured of at least third place with a win over Germany.
- Curacao will be assured of at least third place with a win over Cote d’Ivoire.
- If Ecuador or Curacao do finish third, they’ll probably need to win, as 1/2 points likely won’t be enough to finish as one of the eight best third-place teams.
GROUP F
- Netherlands will qualify with a draw or more against Tunisia. They will be assured of being group winners so long as they remain ahead of Japan on goals scored/goal difference.
- Japan will qualify with a draw or more against Sweden. As above, topping the group is likely to come down to overcoming the current tie-breaker (goals scored/difference) with Netherlands, unless the Dutch slip up against Tunisia.
- Sweden will qualify in at least second place with a win over Japan. A draw will likely be enough to secure a best third-place finish, while they may progress even with a defeat.
- Tunisia are eliminated.
GROUP G
- Egypt will qualify with a draw or more against Iran. They will qualify as group winners with a victory.
- Iran will qualify in at least second place with a win over Egypt.
- Belgium will qualify in at least second place with a win over New Zealand.
- New Zealand will be assured of at least third place with a win over Belgium.
- If Iran or Belgium finish third, they’ll probably need to pick up a draw or better, as their current tally of two points likely may not be enough to finish as one of the eight best third-place teams. New Zealand very likely have to win.
GROUP H
- Spain will qualify with a draw or more against Uruguay. They will qualify as group winners with a victory.
- Uruguay will qualify in at least second place with a win over Spain.
- Cabo Verde will qualify in at least second place with a win over Saudi Arabia.
- Saudi Arabia will be assured of at least third place with a win over Cabo Verde.
- If Uruguay or Cabo Verde finish third, they’ll probably need to pick up a draw or better, as their current tally of two points may not be enough to finish as one of the eight best third-place teams. Saudi Arabia very likely have to win.
GROUP I
- France are already qualified. They will go through as group winners with a draw or more against Norway.
- Norway are already qualified. They will go through as group winners with a victory over France.
- Senegal will be assured of third place with a draw or more against Iraq, but they will have to win to stand any chance of being one of the best third-place teams.
- Iraq will be assured of third place with a win over Senegal.
GROUP J
- Argentina are through as group winners. As Jordan are eliminated, their Round 3 meeting is a veritable dead rubber.
- Austria will be confirmed as runners-up if they get a point or more against Algeria.
- Algeria have to beat Austria to finish second.
- Even with a defeat, both Austria and Algeria could still qualify as one of the best third-place teams. A draw would almost certainly be enough to send both sides through.
GROUP K
- Colombia are already qualified. They will go through as group winners with a point or more against Portugal.
- Portugal will be confirmed as runners-up if they get a point against Colombia, although they very likely already have that sewn up due to their superior goal difference. They will win the group with a victory.
- Congo DR will be assured of at least third place with a draw or better against Uzbekistan. They could mathematically still finish second but it would require a) Portugal to lose and b) a big goal swing.
- Uzbekistan will be assured of third place with a win over Congo DR. Any other result, and they’re out.
GROUP L
- England will qualify with a draw or more against Panama. They will be assured of being group winners with so long as they match or better Ghana’s result.
- Ghana will qualify with a draw or more against Croatia. As above, topping the group is likely to come down to overcoming England’s goal difference, unless the Three Lions slip up against Panama.
- Croatia will qualify in at least second place with a win over Ghana. A draw will likely be enough to secure a best third-place finish, while they may progress even with a defeat.
- Panama are eliminated.
CURRENT RANKING OF THIRD-PLACE CLUBS
WHAT HAS EACH MANAGER SAID ABOUT ROTATION?
We’ll focus on the seven teams that have already qualified in this section, as they’re the nations whose starting XIs are perhaps toughest to second-guess.
MEXICO
“I’m very calm about the 26-man squad, very calm. I don’t know if the other team’s coach feels the same way, but for me, players come in and out and I don’t notice a difference. We don’t depend on just one or two players.
“We lost César [Montes], obviously – an unfortunate play, a poor decision – and he served his suspension.
He’ll surely be back. And regarding Brian [Gutierrez], you’re right, I’m going to manage him carefully because if he gets another yellow card, we’ll lose him, and we wouldn’t want that. Those are the two I’ve handled differently from the rest, more or less because of the card situation.“Well, anyone… anyone could play. In any case, you’ll find out tomorrow. No, even the players themselves don’t know yet because, you see, we actually mix things up a lot in training because there’s no difference. There’s coordination among everyone.” – Javier Aguirre, speaking in his pre-match presser
UNITED STATES
“I think tomorrow, when we wake up and we start to prepare the game against Turkey, we start to think about [the starting XI]. I think it’s too early to talk about our decision against Turkey, I cannot anticipate anything.
“We are 28 players training, 26 on the list, and all the players have the capacity to play and they are qualified to play.
“The USA men’s national team is going to play against Turkey. I think there is a temptation to talk about names but I think if we want to win and we want to be one of the good teams, dreaming big, I think we need to talk about the team, about the USA men’s national team, not the names.” – Mauricio Pochettino, speaking after the Australia game
GERMANY
“The coaching staff and the players will now discuss to what extent we might make changes for the Ecuador match and adjust the workload. We need to see how fit everyone is after the match and if anyone has any minor knocks, but I’m not a fan of changing the entire line-up. You have ages until the next game; if you played today and then don’t play on Thursday, that’s quite a long gap. We do need to stay in a rhythm for our upcoming challenges. So, it’ll probably be a mix, but I don’t know yet.” – Julian Nagelsmann, speaking after the Cote d’Ivoire match
ARGENTINA
“There’s one more match to be played today between Jordan and Algeria. We’ll see the result and the idea, yes, is to give most of them the opportunity to play. I think they deserve it and we’ll do it whenever the match allows.” – Lionel Scaloni on the possibility of giving some fringe players a chance, speaking before Jordan v Algeria – a match that subsequently confirmed Argentina as group winners
FRANCE
“Even before starting this one, I suspected that the third game would be decisive for the final standings in this group.
“Anyway, the goal will be to get the best possible place, first place, because this Norwegian team is a very, very good team. They proved it in the qualifying phase and continue to confirm it.” – Didier Deschamps, speaking after the win over Iraq
NORWAY
“There will be some changes against France. It’s not that we don’t want to win but the point is that we have to put another team on the field in that match because that is the shortest interval between two matches. The condition we were in at the end of the match today indicates that many others will get the chance and that’s how it has to be.
“We have 5-6 players who maybe had cramping tendencies and went all out and now it’s a flight back to Greensboro, then it’s a couple of days, then it’s a flight back to Boston.
“It will be harder for you to guess the team next time!
“Torbjørn Heggem and Kristoffer Ajer felt it, because they both ended up with cramps.
“It’s easier to win the Golden Boot when you play for France and Argentina, but we try to give Erling more games and more help also in the next games.” – Stale Solbakken, speaking after the Senegal match
COLOMBIA
“It’s a different kind of team compared to the ones we’ve faced so far. We’ll see how we approach the
match and what strategy we use, but it’s going to be a game between two teams that try to play great football, right?” – Nestor Lorenzo, playing a straight bat when asked about the possibility of rotation after the win over DR Congo
- It’s also worth mentioning that the Japanese press are expecting widespread rotation for the Blue Samurai’s final group match
