The new Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season is almost here, and the last-minute panic for managers is setting in!
Should we overlook Erling Haaland (£15.5m)? When should we Wildcard? And should we use the Bench Boost immediately?
If you’re looking for some ‘wisdom of the crowd’ (now there’s a throwback for Scout users of a certain vintage…), data from Plan FPL gives us an early indication of what managers have in mind.
Our own Reece, the brains behind that site, has analysed the team and chip plans scheduled by Plan FPL users from Gameweeks 1-19.
And some very clear trends have emerged.
WHAT IS PLAN FPL?
Plan FPL allows managers to map out future transfers and create different routes for their squads.
The Transfer Planner lets users move through upcoming Gameweeks, make hypothetical transfers and save multiple plans.
There is also a player database and an Insights Lab, which includes tools covering fixture rotations, captaincy, momentum and rolling form.
And all of those plans give us an interesting insight into how managers currently intend to approach their chips.
GAMEWEEK 1 OWNERSHIP: HAALAND + PEDRO DOMINATE
Reece analysed 3,708 structurally valid 15-player squads to identify the most popular Gameweek 1 picks.
Joao Pedro (£7.5m) leads the way, featuring in a massive 82.6% of those plans.
Erling Haaland (£15.5m) isn’t far behind on 81.5%, while Bruno Fernandes (£12.0m) completes a very popular top three on 75.3%.
The Haaland figure is particularly interesting. Going without the Norwegian has generated plenty of discussion because his £15.5m price tag allows managers to spread funds across their squads.
Yet Plan FPL users aren’t shying away. More than four-fifths of the valid plans include him.
Captaincy looks even more concentrated.
Haaland currently wears the Gameweek 1 armband in 62.7% of valid plans, while Joao Pedro takes the vice-captaincy in 43.2%.
WHEN ARE MANAGERS PLAYING THEIR CHIPS?
So what are managers planning to do with their chips?
One important caveat comes with these figures: the percentages only include users who have scheduled that particular chip.
Gameweek 1 accounts for a whopping 67.4% of planned Bench Boosts.
Gameweek 2 takes another 30.1%, meaning the opening two rounds combine for 97.5% of scheduled Bench Boosts between Gameweeks 1-19.
BENCH BOOST: GAMEWEEK 1 OR 2?
Below, you can see the players being ‘boosted’ on benches.
The Gameweek 1/2 breakdown at the foot of the image shows the diverging paths of the respective weeks.
Brighton assets and an Ipswich Town defender feature in Gameweek 1, with Coventry City picks popular in Gameweek 2:
WILDCARD: GAMEWEEK 4 OR 6?
Two clear Wildcard windows have developed. Gameweek 6 leads with 34.8% of scheduled Wildcards, narrowly ahead of Gameweek 4 on 31.6%. Gameweek 3 follows on 10.4%.
A Gameweek 4 Wildcard allows managers to attack the opening three rounds without worrying too much about what follows.
Waiting until Gameweek 6 requires a more durable initial squad but provides several extra weeks of information. By then, we’ll know much more about starting XIs, new signings, set pieces and which players regularly collect DefCon points.
Here are the template planned squads for those three Gameweeks…
TRANSFERS BOOKED IN
Reece also looked at the transfers Plan FPL users have already scheduled:
- GW2: Raya → Kinsky is the leading exact move, but only three users. The Gameweek 2 market is currently very fragmented, with many rolling.
- GW3: João Pedro → Haaland (13.0%). Most bought: Haaland 31.9%, Semenyo 24.6%. Most sold: Mbeumo 33.2%, B.Fernandes 30.8%.
- GW4: B.Fernandes → Palmer (20.7%). Next is Mbeumo → Rogers (18.3%).
- GW5: Isak → Haaland (6.3%). Most bought: Ndiaye 18.8%.
- GW6: Calvert-Lewin → Gonzalo (22.3%). Calvert-Lewin is being sold by 44.6% of GW6 transfer planners.
No surprise to see Manchester City assets back on the agenda for Gameweek 3, as they have a home fixture against Coventry City then.
With Manchester United‘s double-header against newly promoted sides over, many are shipping the Red Devils at that same point.
Chelsea‘s favourable fixture swing in Gameweek 4 sees Cole Palmer (£9.5m) and Morgan Rogers (£7.5m) pick up interest.
HIGH PROJECTED SCORERS BEING OVERLOOKED
PlanFPL uses our very own, industry-leading Rate My Team (RMT) points projections.
Below, we can see the top projected scorers with relatively low ownerships:
IN SUMMARY, THEN…
The Bench Boost is overwhelmingly being viewed as an early-season chip, with 97.5% of planned uses coming in the opening two Gameweeks.
Attention then shifts towards Gameweek 3, where transfer activity increases significantly and both the Free Hit and Triple Captain are particularly popular. Fixture swings (positive for City, negative for United) account for that.
Gameweek 4 represents another juncture, with Chelsea’s fixtures turning for the better.
Managers willing to hold their Wildcard for slightly longer are predominantly looking towards Gameweek 6, which currently accounts for the largest share of scheduled Wildcards at 34.8%. That comes after the first international break.
