The Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 3 deadline is tonight, so it’s time for another contributor to share their thoughts.
This time, we hear from FPL Milanista, who you can find here on X. He has six top 10k finishes to his name, as well as a further five in the top 25k.
Two Gameweeks are seemingly enough to make an FPL manager question an entire squad!
Bruno Fernandes (£12.0m) blanks in Gameweek 1 and suddenly looks overpriced, then he delivers in Gameweek 2 and becomes essential. Rayan Cherki (£7.7m) moves from a player many managers barely considered to one of the most popular transfers in the game.
Early results give us useful information, but not all the answers. Before we tear up our Gameweek 1 teams, take hits and chase the latest bandwagons, here are seven conclusions we should resist for now.
1. Two blanks mean a player is a bad pick
This is probably the most important one.
Two blanks do not prove that a player is a poor FPL asset, as they only show that he has not returned points yet.
Bruno Fernandes is a useful reminder: he blanked in Gameweek 1 before delivering a major haul in Gameweek 2. Erling Haaland (£15.5m) followed a similar pattern.
A bad outcome does not necessarily mean the original decision was bad. Judge the role, minutes, underlying threat and fixtures – not just the points total.
2. One huge haul means we have to buy
Rayan Cherki is the obvious example. After two Gameweeks, his two goals and two assists have made him one of the most transferred-in players ahead of Gameweek 3.
But context matters: he did not start in Gameweek 1, and questions remain about his long-term role at Manchester City. His form may be encouraging, but that does not automatically justify restructuring a team, or maybe taking a hit to bring him in.
Buy because the future opportunity looks strong, not because the previous score was large.
3. Points alone prove a player is in form
A player can score 12 points without producing much attacking threat, while another can score two points despite having three excellent chances. The second player might actually be the more interesting FPL asset but for some managers, it’s only points that matter.
Consider Phil Foden’s (£7.0m) two big chances against Crystal Palace. Had he converted both and produced a 20-point haul, would Cherki still have attracted the same transfer rush? Probably not.
Short-term points are shaped by fine margins, so pair returns with chance quality, involvement and expected minutes.
4. Two results define a team
A team’s first two performances do not define its season. Winning both matches does not automatically make a side a title contender, just as two defeats do not mean a team is broken.
The early-season fixture list here matters enormously, and Scout’s new Fixture Difficulty Ratings model is designed around the fact that opponents can significantly affect early returns, so this must be looked at very carefully.
5- Every pre-season conclusion was wrong
After two weeks, managers often behave as though all the research completed in late July and early August no longer matters. A player selected for a strong role, favourable fixtures and convincing tactical reasons can quickly become a “must-sell” after two blanks. Competitive matches should update our opinions, but they should not automatically erase everything we knew beforehand. Change your view when the evidence changes and not simply when the points fail to arrive.
6. Every popular transfer is a good transfer
This is very relevant heading into Gameweek 3, and this particularly ties with a previous article I posted before the season started regarding ownership percentage and how it impacts our squad selection.
Unfortunately, ownership and transfer activity can create the feeling that something is objectively true, but popularity is not evidence, especially in FPL.
Although human beings are vulnerable to fear of missing out, social media hype, and even price changes, we must keep in mind that a transfer doesn’t simply become good because plenty of other managers are doing it.
7. Patience means doing nothing
This is a bit different to the above six points, but I didn’t want this article to be a “just hold everyone” approach; this is not how FPL works.
Patience is not the same as stubbornness, and some signals can be meaningful even after only two Gameweeks. Losing a starting place, giving up penalties or set pieces, or undergoing a major positional change can all justify a transfer. The lesson is not to hold every player regardless of circumstances; it is to react to new information rather than to points alone.
Early Gameweeks should refine a decision-making process, not replace it. Separate outcomes from performance, weigh new evidence against pre-season reasoning and ask whether anything fundamental has changed. In FPL, patience is valuable but informed patience is better.
Good luck, all, in Gameweek 3!
