The Baseline Defender

Price Change Predictions

	Player	Club	Factors
Up	Gabriel Magalhães	ARS	A, Vs
No Change	Keane	EVE	B, Vs, Inj
Up	Mukiele	SUN	A, £
Up	van Hecke	BHA	C, Vs
Up	Cash	AVL	C, Vs
Up	Thiaw	NEW	C, Vs
No Change	Marc Guehi	CRY	C
Down	van Dijk	LIV	B
Down	O’Reilly	MCI	C
Down	Andersen	FUL	B

Risers

Fallers

Player	Team	Price	Progress	Tonight
Bruno G.	NEW	7.0m	141.5%	Very Likely
Pickford	EVE	5.5m	111.1%	Very Likely
Roefs	SUN	4.8m	109.2%	Very Likely
L.Paquetá	WHU	5.9m	103.9%	Very Likely
Gordon	NEW	7.4m	97.0%	Likely
Matheus N.	MCI	5.4m	92.5%	Maybe
Saliba	ARS	5.9m	92.5%	Unlikely
Thiaw	NEW	5.0m	84.7%	Unlikely
Ødegaard	ARS	7.8m	79.7%	Unlikely
Dorgu	MUN	4.2m	72.1%	Unlikely
Rogers	AVL	7.5m	56.5%	Unlikely
Dalot	MUN	4.5m	66.5%	Unlikely
Gravenberch	LIV	5.7m	64.4%	Unlikely
Truffert	BOU	4.5m	62.8%	Unlikely
Dúbravka	BUR	4.0m	62.5%	Unlikely
Palmer	CHE	10.4m	60.4%	Unlikely
Ekitiké	LIV	9.1m	57.7%	Unlikely
Mitchell	CRY	5.0m	55.8%	Unlikely
Guéhi	CRY	5.3m	55.6%	Unlikely
Rúben	MCI	5.7m	52.4%	Unlikely
Frimpong	LIV	5.7m	50.3%	Unlikely
E.Le Fée	SUN	4.9m	50.5%	Unlikely
Konaté	LIV	5.4m	51.0%	Unlikely
Igor Jesus	NFO	5.8m	48.2%	Unlikely
Tete	FUL	4.5m	49.0%	Unlikely
Gabriel	ARS	6.5m	19.0%	Unlikely
Van de Ven	TOT	4.5m	45.9%	Unlikely
De Cuyper	BHA	4.3m	47.1%	Unlikely
A.Becker	LIV	5.4m	43.7%	Unlikely
Xhaka	SUN	5.2m	40.0%	Unlikely
Collins	BRE	4.9m	39.1%	Unlikely
Tarkowski	EVE	5.6m	27.7%	Unlikely
Smith Rowe	FUL	5.6m	38.1%	Unlikely
Wharton	CRY	5.0m	35.7%	Unlikely
Van den Berg	BRE	4.5m	34.6%	Unlikely
Kayode	BRE	4.5m	33.5%	Unlikely
Casemiro	MUN	5.5m	32.7%	Unlikely
Martinez	MUN	4.8m	31.6%	Unlikely
Kelleher	BRE	4.5m	30.7%	Unlikely
Hudson-Odoi	NFO	5.7m	31.3%	Unlikely

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Player	Team	Price	Progress	Tonight
Merino	ARS	5.8m	125.0%	Very Likely
Chalobah	CHE	5.6m	118.3%	Very Likely
Lacroix	CRY	5.2m	115.2%	Very Likely
Richards	CRY	4.5m	111.9%	Very Likely
Adams	BOU	5.0m	105.8%	Very Likely
Grealish	EVE	6.5m	103.0%	Very Likely
Gibbs-White	NFO	7.3m	102.7%	Very Likely
Hermansen	WHU	4.3m	99.9%	Likely
Colwill	CHE	4.8m	96.4%	Maybe
Anderson	SUN	3.9m	95.5%	Maybe
Broggio	AVL	4.5m	94.8%	Unlikely
Armstrong	EVE	4.5m	94.5%	Unlikely
Seung soo	NEW	4.4m	93.4%	Unlikely
Bayindir	MUN	4.8m	91.9%	Unlikely
Jair Cunha	NFO	4.3m	93.8%	Unlikely
Fitzgerald	MUN	4.4m	91.9%	Unlikely
Wan-Bissaka	WHU	4.2m	90.6%	Unlikely
Bellegarde	WOL	5.2m	91.0%	Unlikely
Agbadou	WOL	4.3m	90.3%	Unlikely
L.Guilherme	WHU	4.9m	89.8%	Unlikely
Sadiki	SUN	5.0m	88.4%	Unlikely
Fer López	WOL	5.2m	88.3%	Unlikely
Benitez	CRY	4.0m	87.9%	Unlikely
Robertson	LIV	5.8m	87.2%	Unlikely
Calafiori	ARS	5.7m	82.3%	Unlikely
Minteh	BHA	6.0m	79.4%	Unlikely
R.Gomes	WOL	4.4m	85.8%	Unlikely
Bettinelli	MCI	3.9m	84.1%	Unlikely
Tosin	CHE	4.1m	84.0%	Unlikely
Aké	MCI	5.3m	85.8%	Unlikely
Sousa	AVL	3.9m	85.1%	Unlikely
Baleba	BHA	4.6m	83.6%	Unlikely
Gyökeres	ARS	8.8m	82.6%	Unlikely
King	FUL	4.5m	80.7%	Unlikely
Amad	MUN	6.3m	82.1%	Unlikely
Woltemade	NEW	7.4m	81.5%	Unlikely
Lewis	MCI	4.7m	79.4%	Unlikely
Abdullahi	SUN	4.3m	78.0%	Unlikely
Fraser	WOL	4.3m	78.6%	Unlikely
Arthur	BRE	3.9m	76.9%	Unlikely

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FPL Fixture Ticker

Watchlists

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Raya Martin	ARS	C, Vs
No Change	Pickford	EVE	B, Vs
Up	Verbruggen	BHA	C, Vs
Up	Martinez	AVL	C, Vs
No Change	Kelleher	BRE	A
No Change	Dubravka	BUR	B, £

Last updated: 3 Jan, 2026 9:39am

	Player	Club	Factors
Up	Gabriel Magalhães	ARS	A, Vs
No Change	Keane	EVE	B, Vs, Inj
Up	Mukiele	SUN	A, £
Up	van Hecke	BHA	C, Vs
Up	Cash	AVL	C, Vs
Up	Thiaw	NEW	C, Vs
No Change	Marc Guehi	CRY	C
Down	van Dijk	LIV	B
Down	O’Reilly	MCI	C
Down	Andersen	FUL	B

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Saka	ARS	A, Vs
No Change	Foden	MCI	B
No Change	Matheus Cunha	MUN	B
Up	Rogers	AVL	A, Vs
Up	Bruno Guimarães	NEW	B, Vs
Down	Semenyo	BOU	A
Down	Wirtz	LIV	A
No Change	Grealish	EVE	C, Vs
No Change	Schade	BRE	A
No Change	Minteh	BHA	C, Vs, Inj
No Change	Anderson	NFO	C, £

Last updated: 3 Jan, 2026 9:31am

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Haaland	MCI	A
No Change	Ekitiké	LIV	A
No Change	Bowen	WHU	B, Vs
Up	Watkins	AVL	A, Vs
Up	Calvert-Lewin	LEE	A
Down	Thiago	BRE	C

Last updated: 3 Jan, 2026 9:38am

When assessing the defensive quality of teams, we see that some keep multiple clean sheets but tend to let in lots of goals when they do concede, while others don’t concede a lot of goals, but keep too few cleanies. This makes it difficult to rank one over the other.

Also, a defender’s total score reflects the games he played, attacking points, cards and bonus acquired, which hides the underlying score. An alternate number is needed to correctly rank the teams. To calculate this I will use a Baseline Defender who played 90 mins of all games, did not get assists or goals, didn’t get carded or earn bonuses. This player I believe would best represent the pure defensive quality of the team. I’ve taken 90 points as total possible points, and deducted four for every clean sheet lost, and one for every two goals conceded in a game.

The Baseline Defender Ranking

This table is the ranking of total points by a Baseline Defender in each team

Home and Away

This table is a split up with Home and Away performances. The points scored have been divided by the number of H or A games, to get an H or A average.

Analysis

Contrary to popular notion, many teams don’t defend a lot better at home. Probably because they are more adventurous.
The last seven sides in the split home/away table, are the last seven in the overall table and in the Premier League table. If you are defensively terrible away, you’re terrible in the league.
Arsenal are the only team that has similar returns, home and away. Manchester United at home and Manchester City away are exceptionally good for defensive points.
The drawbacks are that each team has played another only once. Pros of the analysis – it is based on actual points and gives defensive potential of team, home and away.
Injuries, form and fixtures so far will have affected the performances, for example Vincent Kompany’s absence appears to be a large factor in whether Manchester City concede or not.

*For statistic geeks

Median: 2.62
First quartile: 2
Third quartile: 3.2175
Standard deviation: 0.89
95th centile: 4.4
5th centile: 0.84

J0E

10 years, 26 days ago

Thanks for this. Handy stuff as we prepare our defences for Christmas

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The Fantastic Mr Fox
10 years, 26 days ago
Cheers. The edits have made it compact (y)
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Bobbydhino - ⚒ Saint Slav…

Thanks for the effort, I appreciate it.

Clandlewood

Really interesting stuff. Surprised how high man city are. Am guessing it's all down to that run of cs at the start of the season?

Guy Demel's SH

Thanks for this.

I'm guessing there's an error in the second table as West Ham are listed twice as red and (A)?

The Fantastic Mr Fox
10 years, 26 days ago
You're right.

It should read 32) WHU (H) 2
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FPL Daniel

Lav that addition for stats geeks. Lav it

The Fantastic Mr Fox
10 years, 26 days ago
lol. Gives that added bit to those who want to interpret more
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Twisted Saltergater

Surely this is heavily skewed by fixture difficulty of the 15 home/away games so far? I also think injuries play too large a part in the results over those 15 games. For instance, Arsenal with Coquelin are a different proposition to Arsenal without Coquelin.

It works well with each extreme. I don't think anyone would argue that United have the tightest defence at home and Norwich are the leakiest away.

I've tried using stats from last season combined with perceived fixture difficulty, and I always end up throwing it out of the window. A team's mentality, stability in defence and central midfield and lastly, quality of player seems to me to be the best indicators. I love stats though so thanks 🙂