The formula for success in Fantasy Football is fairly simple – pick the right players at the right time to score the most points. Easy right? Well, no. We all know that identifying the right players is rarely simple.
As Fantasy managers we have numerous tools to help us make those all-important decisions on transfers; from a plethora of statistics to fixture lists, news updates, and good old gut feeling.
But looking at tables of figures and working out the right moves is hard work. Surely it is much easier to sit next to the brightest kid in class so you can lean over their shoulder and just copy their answers.
This article aims to do just that by focusing on the latest transfer moves and strategies of the boffins of Fantasy Football, who grace the top five positions of this site’s career Hall of Fame, which does not include this season’s results. Members can see the latest top 5 via our Live Hall of Fame update.
For this I have also deployed Fusen’s FPL Statistico tool to gain an extra insight into their thinking.
Gameweek 22 Overview
This was actually a fairly dull set of fixtures, especially compared to Gameweek 21, which saw big points swings for those holding Tottenham striker Harry Kane and Chelsea left wing back Marcos Alonso.
In Gameweek 22 there were only five transfers made in total this week, with Aguero sold by two of the five and leaving the Argentine in just one team. They all captained Alexis Sanchez, meanwhile Junior Stanislas and Matt Phillips sit in three out of the five teams.
The most used formation this week was 3-5-2. Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Sanchez are in every team, and Alonso is in four out of the five.
Before we look at their teams in more detail, here’s why they are the best FPL managers:
– lowest rank in the last 3 seasons for any of the top 5 is 4,324
– highest rank in the last 3 seasons for any of the top 5 is 49
Captaincy
Sanchez once again proved the most popular captain choice, as he has done 33% of the time.
He delivered 16pts this week for all of the top five and averages 14.3pts when chosen as captain for the season. Sergio Aguero follows in popularity having been chosen 28% of the time, averaging 14.9pts as captain.
How important is it to get your captain choice right?
Total Captain Points as % of Overall Score = 23% (average for the top 5)
By that measure it is fairly important with nearly a quarter of the top 5’s points coming from their captain.
How often did they get the captain choice right?
Total Actual Captain Points as % of Highest Possible Captain Points = 50% (average for the top 5)
This means if they had captained the highest scoring player in their team each Gameweek they would have twice the number of FPL points from their captain. Given that you would have to be clairvoyant to predict that Marcos Alonso would score 21pts against Leicester, getting 50% is not bad. It also means you have some high scoring players in your team.
TRANSFERS
*total hits taken: -4, only one team took a hit, four teams made at least one transfer
*players in: Giroud, Lukaku, Coutinho, Lallana, Brunt
*players out: Aguero x2, Sigurdsson, Allen, Kelly
There were no immediate points returns from the players transferred in with the exception of Chris Brunt, and only one hit taken shows that this week was a fairly cautious week. Looking over the course of the season a different picture emerges:
| Career HoF rank | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | Average |
| Total Transfers | 20 | 25 | 35 | 30 | 29 | 28 |
| Total Points Hits | 0 | 20 | 60 | 44 | 36 | 32 |
| Total Immediate Points Gained from Transfers | 119 | 165 | 171 | 177 | 177 | 162 |
| Minus Points Hits | 119 | 145 | 111 | 133 | 141 | 130 |
Using ‘Total Immediate Points Gained from Transfers’ is not necessarily the best way to measure transfer success. Transfers are often made with a series of fixtures in mind. Nonetheless, it provides a starting point as we often hope for an immediate return. What’s interesting is the different ways the top 5 managers have played the game this year.
Number one Ville Ronka is known for his aversion to hits and has taken none this year. Whereas third placed Peter Kouwenberg has taken 60pts in hits. However when subtracting hits from immediate points gained we see there really isn’t much to separate them, only eight FPL points in Ronka’s favour. What has proven a more successful strategy this season is a balanced approach – taking some hits to increase points.
Patient vs Stubborn
– How long do you hold onto a player who is not scoring well in FPL?
Below is a table of stubbornness. Looking at the outfield players who have played more than 10 Gameweeks and have low average points when they’ve played/started. It’s not surprising that Ronka has a few players who’ve scored quite poorly given the patient way he plays the game.
| HoF rank team | Player | GW in team | Ave. Points (Played) |
| #1 | Allen | 10 | 2.5 |
| #1 | Williams | 15 | 3.4 |
| #1 | Benteke | 19 | 3.7 |
| #1 | McAuley | 15 | 3.7 |
| #2 | Lovren | 15 | 3.7 |
| #2 | Hazard | 10 | 5.2 |
| #3 | Valencia | 15 | 3.1 |
| #3 | Firmino | 12 | 4.9 |
| #3 | Hazard | 10 | 5.0 |
| #4 | McAuley | 16 | 3.8 |
| #4 | Ibrahimovich | 10 | 5.3 |
| #4 | Firmino | 17 | 5.5 |
| #5 | Evans | 10 | 3.1 |
| #5 | Lovren | 14 | 3.4 |
| #5 | Hazard | 10 | 5.1 |
With an average of only 2.5pts it’s easy to see why Ronka sold Stoke’s Joe Allen this week. Though he could just as easily have sold Benteke whom he has stubbornly held onto for 19 Gameweeks. Hazard appears three times on the list, a player who has disappointed the top 5 recently having been such a reliable asset in the past. Faith in Roberto Firmino also finally paid off for fourth placed Steve Poulsom.
PLAYERS
*players in all 5 teams: Ibrahimovic, Sanchez
*players in 4 out of 5 teams: Alonso, Amat
*players in 3 out of 5 teams: Eriksen, Alli, Lallana, Phillips, Stanislas, Foster, Heaton, Pickford
*attacking enablers (sub 6m picks): Phillips x3, Stanislas x3, Anichebe x2, Barnes, Fletcher, Capoue
FORMATION
*two teams have a 3-4-3 formation
*three teams have a 3-5-2 formation
Over the course of the season 3-4-3 has been favoured 66% of the time by the career top 5 HoF, with 3-5-2 second with 20%. Interestingly Ronka has not used 3-5-2 at all this season, whereas the current best ranked team, fifth placed David Meechan has used it on 12 occasions.
Joining Ronka in shunning 3-5-2 is second placed Martin Rattiner, who has an expensive front three of Diego Costa, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Sergio Aguero.
Jay Egersdorff, who has moved from 15th to second place in the Live HoF, and for one Gameweek usurped Ronka at the summit, told FFScout in an interview that 3-5-2 is proving the better shape with out of position midfielders performing well as strikers and crucially because midfielders earn more points for a goal.
POINTS, RANK, VALUE
| Career HoF rank | Squad Value (Saturday) | ITB (Saturday) | Point after GW22 | FPL rank GW22 | Best FPL rank 16/17* | Worst FPL rank 16/17* |
| #1 | 103.0 | 1.0 | 1,246 | 25,583 | 22,480 (GW06) | 135,324 (GW19) |
| #2 | 103.6 | 0.1 | 1,237 | 35,721 | 13,561 (GW20) | 77,199 (GW15) |
| #3 | 102.7 | 4.2 | 1,250 | 22,564 | 22,564 (GW22) | 243,702 (GW07) |
| #4 | 102.4 | 3.0 | 1,173 | 232,035 | 140,958 (GW06) | 845,911 (GW17) |
| #5 | 102.5 | 2.3 | 1,273 | 9,091 | 5,615 (GW21) | 73,858 (GW09) |
*from GW6 onwards
They all still have their wildcards and the only chip that has been played is AOA.
It feels as if the top 5 are slowly improving with third placed Kouwenberg achieving his highest rank of the season so far. He also has the most valuable team out of the five, no doubt thanks to making the most transfers, meaning he is well placed to finish the season much better than he started it.
I apologise if it freaks any of them out seeing their moves analysed in this way, but for us lesser mortals I hope it provides insights on how to play the game successfully. My analogy with looking over the shoulder of the best kid in class is not quite accurate given that we can only see their moves after the gameweek deadline, nonetheless I hope the article has been of some use.
