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European Hangovers – The Manchester Teams

14 March 2017 21 comments
Kryten Kryten
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It is well know that participation in European competitions such as the Europa and Champions leagues have a negative affect on Premier League form and potential Fantasy points.

Given the Premier League has three remaining teams left in European competition, Europa League hopefuls Manchester United and Champions League contenders Manchester City and Leicester City, I decided to find out to what extent Europe is likely to give them a domestic hangover.

Due to time constraints and the relative popularity of City and United over the Foxes players this analysis will only focus on the two Manchester clubs.

Manchester United Analysis

Screen Shot 2017-03-13 at 12.30.46

Manchester United have indeed had some poor results when they were back in league action, dropping home points against Stoke and West Ham. Clearly the two fixtures a week schedule has taken its toll.

Jose Mourinho’s charges also conceded almost double the amount of goals after European fixtures, although it must be noted this included a small data sample of five games and includes a 4-0 thrashing by Chelsea in October.

Manchester City Analysis

Screen Shot 2017-03-13 at 12.31.06

Manchester City also suffered a dip in performance, with poor results post Europe including dropping home points against Southampton and Middlesbrough. They also suffered a big defeat to relegation embattled Leicester.

Pep Guardiola’s troops scored less and conceded more in the Premier League game that immediately followed a European match.

Conclusion

Screen Shot 2017-03-13 at 17.23.10

As the above table shows both teams have a busy schedule ahead, giving hope of returns for players who face Manchester sides straight after continental commitments.

This could earn Liverpool’s Philippe Coutinho, who was hauled off before the our mark against Burnley, a stay of execution in our sides; the Brazilian has netted five times in his six games against Manchester City.

West Brom, Palace and Leicester may also fancy their chances of an upset in the league should the Citizens progress even further.

Burnley assets, such as Tom Heaton and Ashley Barnes could also deliver returns when Manchester United drop by Turf Moor, just a few days after a potential quarter final second leg.

North London side Arsenal and Spurs could also prosper during a visit from a Europa fatigued United, should the Red Devils reach the semi-finals.

Kryten https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/480/history

21 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Clifford☯
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 9 months ago

    Cheers. Nice Article.

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  2. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 9 months ago

    Thanks so much for this...putting me off Ibrahimovic outside of a double.

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    1. Bunk Moreland
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 months ago

      Ibra is getting a nice long rest though Jonty, come GW 32 he may actually be more fit than Aguero or Costa. I wouldn't be so quick to rule out the legend!

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      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 9 months ago

        Its less him, more the team. Someone's got to pass to him.

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        1. Bunk Moreland
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 9 months ago

          I think you are confusing him with other, mortal strikers. 😉

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          1. J0E
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 16 Years
            8 years, 9 months ago

            🙂

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  3. BigManBakar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 9 months ago

    Nice detailed research. Might make me lean towards keeping Coutinho.

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  4. MTPockets
      8 years, 9 months ago

      Thanks. Are Coutinho's goals from 13-16 seasons relevant though?

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      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 9 months ago

        Any track record of good performance against a team is relevant...but how much relevance is up to each reader.

        Given Coutinho's poor game v Burnley and City's defensive resolve of late it arguably has less relevance...

        ...but given City's hangover post Europe cup game and his record for slicing his way through many of the players that are still there perhaps there is also a good case for giving it higher relevance?

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        1. MTPockets
            8 years, 9 months ago

            Seems so on MCI side of the ledger. But on the other [my competitive sports experience amounts to schoolboy rugby] is track record of a particular player against a particular team over such a time period a genuinely motivating and/or statistically significant thing? I have no idea.

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      2. The Polymath
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 9 months ago

        Does playing on a Saturday or Sunday (with the extra day's rest) following Europe make any difference?

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        1. Kryten
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 9 months ago

          Strangely looking at the dates man city did much better with three days than four days rest

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          1. Qubit
            • 16 Years
            8 years, 9 months ago

            I find that worrying as it slightly casts doubt over the findings as a whole for me. Of course that could be down to other factors like opposition too.

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            1. Kryten
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              8 years, 9 months ago

              I am not to sure we all already knew the findings no European football is why Leicester Liverpool and Chelsea have mounted title challenges in recent years. I personally don't believe the 3 or 4 day rest matters the issue is the lack of tactical preparation and mind focus when preparing for two games in a week

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              1. Qubit
                • 16 Years
                8 years, 9 months ago

                Agreed, especially lack of prep time and focusing on the match ahead. European football does seem to carry a heavy penalty, particularly for those in the Europa league.

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      3. My Name Is Pepu
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 9 months ago

        We've been discussing different reasons to keep Coutinho in our teams for weeks now and he keeps trolling everyone week after week 🙂
        The real trolls are the Liverpool mids (especially LOLana), not Lukaku!!

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        1. Darklord_bg
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 9 months ago

          Yup...Coutinho the biggest troll of them all.

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      4. John t penguin
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 9 months ago

        This article is ridiculous for one reason
        The boxes in the conclusion should be aligned
        I cannot take anything serious with off line box

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        1. Kryten
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 9 months ago

          http://giphy.com/gifs/dwarf-3FlgFuwJFV9jq

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      5. tm245
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 9 months ago

        Thanks for looking into these matches from earlier in the year, it helps to know what teams have done so far this season.

        However, this opening statement is a bit questionable:
        "It is well know that participation in European competitions such as the Europa and Champions leagues have a negative affect on Premier League form and potential Fantasy points."

        I'm pretty sure one of the superstar community writers of the past, maybe 3rd Turd or Green Windmill, did an article on Europa League hangovers over a much larger sample size of multiple seasons. I don't have the link but I'm pretty sure the results were not as conclusive as this article indicates.

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        1. Kryten
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 9 months ago

          Would be great to use past season data to be more conclusive but even with out it we still know European participation has a negative impact on premier league form that's obvious if you look at Leicester Liverpool and Chelsea title challenge in recent years. I wrote the article to look at this season data and potential fixtures as I think there are to many variables using past data such as squad strength, manager tactics rotation, fitness levels, squad confidence.

          Appreciate the comments don't think I can reach other community writers levels I am not a experienced writer. I am just happy filling some spare time to share observations and wirtng article regrading fpl trends. Hopefully helps keep the community going, keeps people interested and encourages debate

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