FPL Gameweek 25 – Pick of the Bunch

I’ve found since doing previews and predictions for myself, then more recently articles for Fantasy Football Scout, that my own Fantasy Premier League (FPL) team has been benefiting.  I’ve delved into games and players in much more detail than I have done in the past.  Hammering the stats available in the Members Area and becoming a bit of a geek during my spare time.

This isn’t a plug by the way but it’s only my 3rd season as a Fantasy Football Scout Member.  I’ll be honest, in the first season I was lazy.  My overall rank didn’t really mean much to me at all and I finished 2017/18 in 249,921st. In 2018/19 my work mini league (of 12 or so people) merged with another and we had over 40 players in it.  It was highly competitive though I only finished 4th with an overall rank of 53,991.  It was an improvement and I played the game differently.  This season it’s going better, although in Gameweek 15 I was sat with an overall rank of 1.5m. I was still relaxed and fairly happy with my team.  Though that week I had a score of 25 points after a four point hit, it was time to make changes to the way I did things without ripping up my team.

I studied Gameweek 16 and made notes on each fixture.  I was convinced that my team who had so badly let me down the week before would still do well.  To my avail, they produced 80 points.  If a player I believe will do well fails to score any points, I can’t be unhappy.  If I predicted my new signing was going to score a brace, yet come away with zilch, I’m watching the highlights, looking at the stats and seeing what could have been.

I’ve only had one red arrow since that disastrous week and proudly gained an overall rank of 15,000. I appreciate there is a fine line between a humble brag, and a rant about how amazing I am.  Please don’t think it’s a boast.  I just want to get across that approaching Gameweeks differently when things aren’t going well, can result in you creating your own luck and fortunes.

Moving onto Gameweek 25, I have picked three games which are my “pick of the bunch”.

Leicester v Chelsea

The good news for Jamie Vardy (£9.9m) owners is that he made an appearance in the 56th minute in the semi-final (2nd leg) of the Carabao Cup against Aston Villa on Tuesday night.  He still has ownership of 42.2% and I believe those who have kept the faith are going to reap the rewards.  I haven’t owned him all season and certainly looking to get him in for the fixture swing starting in Gameweek 28. He’ll face Norwich (a), Aston Villa (h), Watford (a), Brighton (h) which looks very enticing doesn’t it?  Another player who is quietly going about his business very nicely is Harvey Barnes (£5.9m).  Though it hasn’t gone unnoticed from the gaffer.  After the Gameweek 24, 4-1 demolition job against West Ham, and seeing Barnes get his second double digit haul of the season, Brendan Rodgers added

“I think his goal against Burnley (in Sunday’s 2-1 defeat at Turf Moor) has given him confidence because he showed in the Championship as a young player he has the ability to score goals.  But now he’s improving, developing, he’s got power, he’s got speed, he can go either way, and he’s now getting and creating goals, so I’m really pleased for him.”

I still don’t think Frank Lampard knows his preferred back four.  Whether it will be César Azpilicueta (£5.8m) or youngster Reece James (£5.0m), I believe they will be in for a rough ride.  Tammy Abraham (£7.7m) is currently 50/50 to make the line-up, and if he doesn’t make it then he’s obviously going to be a big loss. Leicester will want to put the Cup defeat behind them and focus on the top four now.  “If” they win, it would put them 11 points clear of 4th place Chelsea with a 20+ better goal difference.  I have a feeling Leicester are going to keep a clean sheet here and an even stronger feeling they will come away with the three points.

Prediction:-  Leicester 2 v 0 Chelsea

Player to watch:-  Harvey Barnes

Liverpool v Southampton

The reverse fixture in Gameweek 2 saw Liverpool win 2-1 with goals from Sadio Mane (£12.2m), Roberto Firmino (£9.6m) and Danny Ings (£7.0m).  The latter has gone two league games without scoring.  It’s worth noting he hasn’t done this since Gameweek 10/11 when the Saints lost to Leicester then Manchester City, before going on a run of 10 goals in 11 league matches.  Whilst a betting man may not go against Liverpool keeping another clean sheet, Wolves managed to get a breakthrough and also missed a few big chances, whilst West Ham could have easily nicked a goal and extremely unfortunate when Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.6m) smashed one against his own woodwork in the 72nd minute.  That said, there is clearly a well earned air of confidence in Liverpool’s defence.  Alisson (£6.1m) is in my opinion the best goalkeeper in the world.  He’s helped them to eight clean sheets in their last nine league games!

I can’t see much rotation heading into this game.  Mane looks like he may sit this one out and surely won’t be risked unless he’s 100%.  We could see Fabinho (£5.4m) make his first start since Gameweek 13, though Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (£6.2m) did manage to score against West Ham.  Apparently it was cramp that forced Divock Origi (£5.2m) off in the 68th minute the other night.  If we see Fabinho introduced, it could mean Chamberlain and Minamino (£6.5m) will be fighting it out with Origi for that 3rd attacking spot.

Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) has now scored 12 league goals this season after netting from the spot on Wednesday evening.  His home form is impressive to say the least. Ten of his league goals have come at Anfield and we all know he is capable of adding to that this weekend.

I’ve no doubt Danny Ings will be a threat on Saturday.  He will no doubt get a decent reception at Anfield.  His injuries marred his time at the club and Klopp has previously stated he was a popular player in the dressing room and was reluctant to allow him to leave.  The ever impressive Virgil van Dijk (£6.5m) will have to bring his A-game and if they want to keep a clean sheet, it will be a great achievement.  I think they will ya know…

Prediction:-  Liverpool 2 v 0 Southampton

Player to watch:-  Mo Salah

Tottenham Hotspur v Man City

The final game of Gameweek 25 sees Spurs take on Man City.  This should be an excellent tactical encounter.  Kevin de Bruyne (10.6m) took all three bonus points in the reverse fixture setting up goals for both Sergio Aguero (£12.0m) and Raheem Sterling (£11.7m) in a 2-2 draw.  Lucas Moura (£7.1m) and Erik Lamela (£5.7m) each finding the net for Spurs that day.  Yet again Pep Guardiola will be pondering on who will make the starting line-up. Three Gameweeks ago we saw Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m) play alongside Aguero in a front 3 with Riyad Mahrez (£8.5m).  We all know how well that went turning Aston Villa over 6-1.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see that front line again on Sunday.  Aguero is on fire and full of confidence, I can’t see him not adding to his 16 league goals already scored this season, six arriving in the last three.  Games missed due to injury or rotation have surely got in the way of him surpassing last season’s tally of 21 goals. In fact, he’s only played 1,107 minutes in the league this season.  That’s a goal every 69.1 minutes.  To put this into perspective, Vardy’s average goal per minute is 113.6 minutes, Ings is 116.8, Jesus is 131.2 and Aubameyang is 138.7.

Spurs won’t lay down here but Jose is going to have to step up with some tactical genius. Of course they’re missing Harry Kane (£10.8m), but they can look at Dele Alli (£8.5m) to pick up from where he left in Gameweek 24 with a 13 point haul against Norwich. Heung-Min Son (£9.9m) is a threat against any team though he really needs to raise his game.  Many of his team mates look to him to be the game changer and he needs to find more consistency, as well as being a bigger player in these big games. His relatively small tally of six league goals this season have come against Crystal Palace (2), Sheffield United, West Ham, Burnley and Norwich.

I believe Spurs can come good and challenge for that 4th Champions League spot.  On paper, this is a much bigger game for them than Man City who already look like they will have to settle (and fight for) 2nd in the league.  It is easy to suggest a Man City victory, or a repeat 2-2 draw, but I’m putting my neck on the line.  Spurs will need to get that 1st goal. It will be crucial to prevent Man City growing with confidence and dominating Spurs on their own turf.

Prediction:-  Spurs 2 v 1 Man City

Player to watch:-  Heung-Min-Son

Hope you all enjoyed the read.  Good luck with this week.

Pep Pig