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The secret formula to crack FPL

Jay Egersdorff famously once said “FPL is a game of probability”. But what if you could use the wealth of data we have accumulated so far this season to swing the odds in your favour and storm to success in the final third of the season?

If there is one stat to rule them all, it could well be FPL Goal Involvement. If a team is going to score, who is the most likely player to be involved in the goal or the assist? A key component of ‘Talisman Theory’, this stat matures like a fine wine. The more gameweeks you give it, the more reliable it becomes as an indicator of future performance. But what if you could take the data and the stat one step further to predict what will happen between now and the end of the season? Amongst the realms and realms of stats, could we have found a hidden algorithm that reveals the secret formula to FPL success?

Which teams will score the most points between now and the end of the season?

the-secret-formula-to-crack-fpl

In the above table, we have looked at how many goals and assists each team has scored to date. Dividing this total by the number of games played, we get an average figure for how many goals and assists they get per game. Man City come top with 4.96 attacking returns per game while Crystal Palace and Watford are joint bottom with a meagre 1.65 a game. This highlights one of the big flaws of Talisman Theory. It’s all well and good Wilfred Zaha being Crystal Palace’s talisman, but if his team’s total attacking output is puny and listless, then his FPL points are likely to be few and far between.

Taking how many goals and assists a team has gotten on average per game and multiplying it by the number of games they have left this season, we can project how attacking returns they are likely to get in the next 12 gameweeks or so. And if we can layer on a player’s FPL goal involvement on top of this, then that’s when things get really interesting.

Which players will score the most points between now and the end of the season?

the-secret-formula-to-crack-fpl 1

*Rashford faces a period on the sidelines and may therefore struggle to hit the predicted levels.

Let’s stick with the Man City example.

So far they have scored 4.96 goals and assists per game. 4.96 multiplied by the 13 games they have left gives a total of 64.48 goals and assists to be had in the final third of the season.

Now if Aguero has a 53% FPL goal involvement, we can expect him to get 53% of his team’s 64.48 goals and assists. Obviously he can’t score AND assist a goal by himself, so if we divide this figure by two to assume he either scores the goal or gets the assist, then we can project 17.09 attacking returns from him between now and the season’s end.

In second place is Vardy with 13.39 attacking returns and Salah takes bronze with 13.04 attacking returns.

Obviously none of us have a crystal ball and no projection is 100% fail safe. Caveats like injuries and players being rotated and not starting every game will have to be taken into account. But it will be interesting to return to this article on May 17th and see how close these predictions actually were!

114 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Rotation's Alter Ego
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    It's a simple metric isn't it, but one I think is so commonly overlooked because some people view it as a stat that purely describes the past and ignores it's potential at predicting the future.

    Interesting to see how Aguero is in a completely different league to the others - a clear sign that if he gets minutes he could trounce all other options. But will he get those minutes? Taking the risk may prove season defining...

    Looking forward to seeing how close these predictions are!

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Thank you so much for publishing this so quickly. Aguero has been in a league of his own for a lot of the big stats - especially the 'minutes per

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        ... stats. But as you say, game time is the obvious concern.

    2. FantasyHero
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Aguero deserves way more popularity and respect than he gets. So consistently good for so many seasons. This guy is def EPL 's best!

      1. FPL_Crisis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        The biggest question is how many of the remaining 13 he actually starts and/or plays 60+ mins. It’s a good metric and solid way of looking at things but games played or missed games is also a factor especially for that price

  2. Andy_Social
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    "Which teams will score the most points between now and the end of the season?"

    Doesn't take defence/clean sheets into account, which would propel Sheff Utd up your table. Your hrading should make clear you mean attacking points only.

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yep, that's right. This doesn't include defenders and clean sheet points. It would be interesting to factor that in but the maths might be beyond me!

  3. Kaiser123
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Aquero probably won’t get enough mins. Sane will be back, but depends if MC get knocked out of CL early.

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Sane is more of a threat to Sterling on the left.

      1. TopMarx
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        You don't think Sterling would move back to the right with Sane on the left? It was a productive combination in the past.

        1. FPL Virgin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Possibly. It could unlock Sterling's potential being positioned there.

  4. The Cisco Kid
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    I really appreciate the work here! There’s a lot to consider. I think this kind of analysis could be most useful for players outside the premium price bracket. I don’t think anyone is on the fence about Aguero, Vardy, or Salah. Deciding between Grealish or Zaha or Pukki, however, will be aided by something like this.

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Vardy being as high as he is for the price he's at is quite interesting. I am keeping and think he'll come good with the fixture swing in GW28.

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        That's one of the reasons I'm holding onto Vardy for now. If Leicester score, there's a 50% chance he'll be involved. It's even higher if you look all the way back to when Rodgers took over.

        1. TopMarx
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Has there been a slight position change for Vardy recently? I haven't checked heat maps just a feeling from watching the games. Seems he's a bit wider.

          1. Breww
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            interesting theory.. made me wanna check further but comparing his heat map for the last 4 games versus his overall for the season did not offer much in terms of a change.. in short, i don't think he's playing wider.

            1. TopMarx
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 11 Years
              4 years, 1 month ago

              Thank you for checking it out. Vardy on the shopping list for GW28!

    2. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Thanks, Kid. I appreciate the kind feedback.

  5. elchilangles
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    good stats, but feel like it doesn't take in enough criteria like form, fixtures or minutes played.

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Thanks. I put in a minimum games played filter for my talisman player stats. That should help some.

  6. RichP_LFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Really like this, would be interesting if a formula accounting for remaining fixture difficulties based on the season ticker could be created to try and drill down even further.

    You could use this in conjunction with my FPA model here: https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2020/02/06/using-fantasy-points-against-to-excel-in-fpl/

    to try and target those who score well with your model against the fixture ticker I’ve created!

    Great work buddy.

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      That's a really good point. Incorporating fixture difficulty would take the analysis up another level!

  7. Jönny
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    You could tweak further this by factoring in who they will play in the remaining games...

    I've tried doing this in a fairly rudimentary way, by adding together the relevant total attacking returns figures with the total conceded goals figures for each fixture and then dividing by two. I *think* the below is correct in terms of the adjusted totals.

    MCI 48.94
    LIV 47.1
    LEI 43.52
    CHE 37.48
    TOT 35.69
    WOL 34.94
    MUN 33.54
    EVE 33.35
    ARS 32.62
    SOU 32.1
    AVL 31.4
    WHU 31.17
    SHU 30.6
    BUR 29.98
    BHA 29.73
    NEW 29.37
    BOU 28.08
    WAT 27.46
    CRY 27.38
    NOR 27.31

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Wow, this is good stuff. As I mentioned above, taking into account fixture difficulty does take the analysis a step further.

  8. Conik
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Aguero has been involved in 20/65 City goals. No idea where the 53% figure is plucked from, but if it is not accurate for the first 25 games, I see no reason why it should predict the last 13.

    If this figure only reflects goal involvement while on the pitch, the results are rendered meaningless, as being on the pitch is, like, kind of important for projections of scoring points.

    1. Forza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I think goal involvement in the members' area is just for the period where the player is on the pitch, which would make you right. That doesn't mean the stats aren't useless though; it compensates for long-term injuries that might not happen again (e.g. City scored 10 goals when Aguero was out injured for 4 games, but it's not like that makes him a worse player when he's fit, and he's fit now).

      1. Forza
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Typo: it doesn't mean that the stats *are* useless 😳

    2. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      53% is Aguero's FPL goal Involvement. Just double checked. When he has been on the pitch he has either scored or got the FPL assist for 53% of man City's goals.

  9. Clay Davis
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Where's KDB on that list?

    I'm sorry but you can't tell me Fleck is a better option than KDB

    1. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      One player from each team

      1. Clay Davis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Indeed. And there is the flaw!

        1. Breww
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          it's not a flaw.. you just didn't read.

      2. dekikide
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Oh, I was wondering if it was possible for KDB, and Mane to be below all those players.. I need to read more thoroughly 😀 ..

        1. Now I'm Panicking
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Yeah - I wouldn't recommend getting Shelvey over Mane 😀

    2. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      KDB has a 41% FPL goal Involvement, second to only Aguero for Man City. So he's an excellent option. Much better than Fleck because as I mentioned there's no point being the talisman of a low scoring team.

      1. FantasyHero
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        41% involvement and he plays almost 90 mins every game.

  10. Dr. Agabuse
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    I wonder what the RMT tool did..

  11. Dr. Agabuse
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    In the end subconciously we always weigh fixtures vs form and form is team form + talisman form.
    For example you will feel sad if Mahrez gets you 8pts from two assists in a 6-0 crushing but feel extraordinarily happy if Richarlison (same price category) gets you 8 in a 1-0 win.
    You feel, you should have had Sterling for his Hattrick if you had Mahrez in your team but you wouldnt think that way, if you had had Richarlison and avoided City assets, despite it actually making no difference in Points.

    I am saying: the Talisman thing is more a feel good thing than actually more points.

    If i saw 4-0 spurs, i wasnt happy because i had Son but my rivals had Alli, so i was worried by that result.
    When i saw 5-0 Villa and had McGinn at the time (when Grealish wasnt a thing) i was just looking happily dorward to collect my differential Points (albeit there werent any).

    Its a feeling thing and luckily we dont just play by those rules otherwise we wouldnt have Mane, KDB, DCL, Traore, Pepe (i am kidding)

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Interesting point of view definitely. Thanks for taking the time to read the article and respond!

  12. Fulchester's New Centr…
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Thanks for this Virg.
    Would be nice if Community articles got more attention/promotion.

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Cheers mate.

    2. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Feedback raised so many times by multiple people yet continuously ignored.

      1. Geoff
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Hopefully they have a designated spot near the top, with an image, starting next season

    3. RichP_LFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Great shout

    4. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Community article promotion is tricky and I think largely misunderstood.

      Many of the options that people have suggested are just not feasible!

      Of course, I'd love to hear more ways we could make these easier to see - we already have a few in the works but looking for more all the time.

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Didn't Joe (when he looked after the community stuff) used to tweet out from the official FFScout Twitter account when a community article went live? That could help especially on slow news days like today.

        1. Rotation's Alter Ego
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          I wasn't on Twitter then, so can't say!

          We do tweets for some CAs but the problem is that if I'm editing them I can't tweet it - because I don't have access to that account!

          In general, if I get @'d I'll either mention it to Geoff or RT from my account.

          I'd love to have a way where if people submit and article they have an option of including their Twitter @ in a separate box just so it's a little easier.

          1. FPL Virgin
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Joe used to do a community round up article every Friday night. Any chance of resurrecting that? It used to draw attention to the community stuff.

            1. Geoff
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 11 Years
              4 years, 1 month ago

              That still happens! Still written

              1. FPL Virgin
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 7 Years
                4 years, 1 month ago

                D'oh! I've totally missed this. Can you link me to last week's community round up please?

                1. Geoff
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • Has Moderation Rights
                  • 11 Years
                  4 years, 1 month ago

                  Well, it's included in TopMarx's weekly content pre-deadline!

  13. Werkself
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    "Jay Egersdorff famously once said “FPL is a game of probability”. "  

    And, most profoundly, "Baines - never captain, never bench".   And the people bowed and prayed.

    1. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      He also said "pay me money for some average advice you gullible fools" - that may be a slight misquote.

      1. Werkself
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        And it was so.

    2. Maddi Son
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Slight tangent but I do think people over-estimate the amount of luck required to be successful on FPL. Probably to make themselves feel better when having a shocking season. Many managers consistently get into the top 10k every year. If luck was as big of a factor as people make out, then you'd expect a much bigger variance in OR each year. 10k one year, 2.2m the next, 400k the next etc.

      A lot of luck is without doubt needed to win the whole thing... but playing your cards right will get you in the top 20k most seasons.

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        You're absolutely right. Luck is a massive factor. Look at what happened to Mane triple captainers this season.

  14. Pigeon
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Who do I downgrade here for Jimenez?

    KDB, Son or Ricardo?

  15. Annie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Aguero has 20 attacking returns, how is his goal involvement so high?

    1. Annie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Missed games I guess?

    2. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      FPL Goal Involvement only takes into account the games the player played in ... Not the total games Man City have played.

      1. Annie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks

  16. Catenaccio FC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    I think that we ignore the fact that sports are a non-linear event, specially football which is played in a large pitch with 22 players,
    ιs the absolute chaotic sport event. If you add to that, the fact that PL is the most competitive league in the world, then every analysis based on stats for a short amount of period is destined to fail.

    As other posters have mentioned fixture difficulty is not taken into account and that is a huge problem. A stat that would be helpful is how a certain player has performed against similar ranking teams.

    Another factor is that you never know when the form of a team or a specific player will suddenly change so we can get ahead of the curve and gain in rankings.

    Don't get me wrong, of course we increase our probabilities of getting it right but no way we can 'crack' FPL by looking only at certain stats.

    We don't need stats to understand that Aguero is able to smash every defense when is healthy or that KdB is the assists king and vital to the way Man City play.

    Probably a neural network (AI) and advanced predictions models that are fed with a large amount of inputs can do a better job but again there will never be any guarantee of absolute success.
    Betting companies use such models to determine the odds given and make sure the house always wins.

    For me the only thing that can help you is watch as many matches or extended highlights as you can and observe the energy and the effort players put on the pitch. Stats are just supplementary.

    1. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      And still even bookies lose money to the best analysts and have to restrict their bets and change odds. Creating a good model is challenging, we do tend to disagree with RMT-tool. Form and injuries are difficult to predict, sometimes underlying stats cheat, sometimes not.

    2. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Fair point, well made.

      Stats are a massive time saving device for people who can't watch 10 ninety minute games each week. They also aggregate and keep an exact record of important actions on the pitch over time, which you may not be doing as the weeks go by and you watch match after match.

  17. BNMC
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Could Alli fall in price tonight?

  18. FFSbet.com
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Hmm...

    When asked whether he is the best coach in football, Guardiola said, via Sky Sports: "I was."

    He continued: "Listen, what is the best coach in the world? I never felt I was the best, never in my life.

    "When I won six titles in a row at Barcelona, and won trebles, I never felt that. I won because I had extraordinary players in the big clubs.

    "There are incredible managers, they don't have these players, they don't have these big clubs. Give me a team that is not like Manchester City, I am not going to win."

  19. Pakse
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Firstly, really enjoyed the article and the innovative thinking. Great talisman theory idea, and like linking team goals to GI.
    When you do a follow-up article on this (which I hope you do), I would be very interested
    - in value (which is the main thing for me), Jimi and Ings look much better value than Son/Auba on your table.
    - some teams have multiple talismans - Mane/Salah, KDB/Kun etc, it would be nice to not limit to x1 player per team.
    - how is time played factored in. Aguero on 17.1, but only playing half the minutes since GW10 of Vardy on 13.4 is important for a tailsman
    Great article and look forwards to the next one.

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Thank you for the feedback, that is very kind. I had very similar thoughts to the points you made, but I just wanted to get the idea out of my head and down on paper. I may return to this and develop the concept along your list ... or who knows maybe someone else will take the concept and run with it!

  20. St Pauli Walnuts
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Am I misunderstanding the list, is it a random sample? No Mane and various others

    1. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I think it's the "best" option from each team. Salah there, so no mane.

      1. St Pauli Walnuts
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Ah right, ta!

      2. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        That's right. I used the number 1 Talisman from each team. Mane was a couple of percentage points behind Salah.

  21. St Pauli Walnuts
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Isn’t the biggest flaw with this that it doesn’t take into account rotation. Taking injuries out of it as that it random for the most part, but those stats are if Kun played every game remaining aren’t they? KDB has an inferior % of involvement I’m goals when on the pitch than Kun does but has considerably more points because he plays more and that is likely to remain the case.

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I do mention rotation in the concluding paragraph, but more often than not a team's Talisman is nailed.

      1. St Pauli Walnuts
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Sorry missed that in closing statement. It’s an interesting concept and I appreciate the effort. Looking at the table I can see maybe 4 or 5 who aren’t properly nailed, but because we know that I guess we can just take that into account when deciding how to use the projections.

        Keep up the good work, I’ve enjoyed your previous articles too.

        1. FPL Virgin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          I really appreciate that. Thanks, man.

  22. TopMarx
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Good stuff Virgin! Interesting to read the results. I would like to know if you applied this last season at GW25, and made predictions, how well they played out? Is all the data you need for last season available in the members area?

    I like talisman theory, I agree with others that playing time should be factored in a little. Or perhaps, in the case of City, you have an "explosive talisman" in Aguero and a "dullard talisman" in KDB?

    The article provided food for thought, much appreciated.

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      You've made my day TM. Thank you for reading my work!

      I haven't repeated this analysis for last season. I'm very curious to see how it held up though. Did the data from the first two-thirds of the season predict what happened in the final third to a reasonable degree?

      I do think there is something here in the basic premise. Maybe a better statistician than me can do version 2.0 and take things forward 😉

      1. TopMarx
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Virgin you do yourself a disservice - you are clearly a capable statistician (I submit exhibit A - this article!)

        I'm interested to see the result of this experiment and how you develop version 2.0

        I like the idea of a team having a "dullard talisman" - a player with a high xGI who has played a lot of minutes, and an "explosive talisman" - not played as many minutes but a better xGI. When I get a moment I might investigate, unless someone beats me to it.

        1. FPL Virgin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Interesting idea. Replacing Aguero with KDB who is more secure in the team gives an expected output of 13.22 attacking returns in the remainder of the season, which is close to Salah and Vardy's score.

          1. TopMarx
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 11 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            That's useful to know with at least one DGW to come, thank you.

  23. konzi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    We should probably take minutes played into the equation to give us even better picture.

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Fair point although in most team's cases (except man city) the talisman plays every minute unless injured.

      The analysis could be repeated using KDB and not Aguero although KDBs FPL goal involvement is quite a bit lower

  24. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Who to get for Aguero?

    1. Firmino
    2. Jimenez

    Which 3rd Pool?

    A) Mane
    B) Firmino

    1. have you seen cyan
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Just get Jimi, safe sensible pick and it's inevitable anyway. Is a season keeper

  25. rokonto
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Will we get another article at the end of the season to show how accurate this was?

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I'll definitely revisit this, yep. Could be onto something here!

  26. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    I think one thing that has not been accurately factored in (by any model) is fixture difficulty. Fixture difficulty is too often weighted to perception of how good a team is. There are four things that I think a successful fixture difficulty model would factor in:

    1) Current position in the PL (and perhaps even something like points difference from top spot)
    2) Recent form
    3) Home form vs away form
    4) Points differential between the team and their opponent

    The output from this model of fixture difficulty would then feed into a larger model that could be used to calculated expected FPL points.

    1. Salarrivederci
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I agree, but I also think you missed out on a good few.

      Are the club rivals? Did one teams coach use to coach for the opponent? Does one team have CL/EL 2-3 days after, and do they prioritize that over PL?

      I actually think Leicester could not have asked for a better opportunity to smack City, and take over that second place.
      City plays West Ham at home a few days before the match, and have Real Madrid a few days later (which they prioritize > second place in the league). What looks hard on paper is actually kinda tasty for Leicester IMO.

    2. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      That's a good point but I am looking at a large sample of gameweeks so you would hope the easy and tough fixtures would balance out.

  27. Camino Aleatorio
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    This game is about following the herd but picking better captains.

    And being lucky

    And not falling for Abraham, Pulisic, James, Martial, Sterling and other traps

    But you must hit the point volcanos. If you 3C Salah on GW24 you got a GWs pile of points and the other dudes died. The mane holders got crushed and should just delete their accounts. If you did not Vardy party on time, you also got crushed.

    1. tets mcgee (Bachmann an Rob…
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      world number 1 hasnt had vardy all season and hasnt used his trip cap. i dont think he got crushed.

      1. Camino Aleatorio
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        He hit other point bonanzas- like the recent Aguero and he wasn’t holding Mane on 24, he had Salah at C

  28. jesperdalagersuri
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Surely Mane will be involved in more than 3,50 goals during the remaining games. How come his not on the list? He's been more of a talisman than Salah this season.

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I picked the talisman from each team. There can only be one. But Mane's FPL goal Involvement is only a few percentage points behind Salah so his predicted attacking returns output is very similar around the 13 mark.

  29. Ginkapo FPL
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    This is hilarious. Nobody has realised something very simple about this secret formula.

    This is saying that the players who scored well in the first half of the season will score well in the second half of the season. Its really that simple.

    1. tets mcgee (Bachmann an Rob…
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      hehe this is also what i thought.

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        What I've tried to do here is look at those players with an excellent FPL goal Involvement but who also play for a team that scores lots of attacking points. This extra level of detail makes Talisman theory more potent I think.

        1. Ginkapo FPL
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Players who have high goal involvement have high fpl points totals.

    2. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      That's like saying pick whoever you think will score the most for your captain. It doesn't really help anyone.

      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Indeed, I havent written an article on that either.

  30. b✪mber
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Great article Virg!

    As stated by the ppl above adjustments for minutes/game and/or minutes/season should be done. Kun being the obvious culprit here - guy never played 2600min in a single season (or he roughly plays around 75% of the total minutes at best). If we adjust his involvement for the minutes he gets traditionally he'll be more likely to be involved in around 13 goals for the rest of the season.

    Adding a 2nd player for each team is also important imo as players like Mane, KdB etc. are missing. Due to budget constrains we can't always have the talisman, but we might be able to squeeze in his sidekick and the sidekick often offers great value (looking at you KdB).

    Another thing to add would be expected points from the returns as some players are more weighted towards goals while others are more weighted toward assists. This shouldn't make a huge difference for the strikers, but will make a bigger difference for midfielders as their goals are a lot more valuable than the assists.

    Adjusting for fixture difficulty is the another thing to add as many above stated.

    Finally expected points/1M spent gives us the value of each player. I would add x2 multiplier columns for expected points and for value to adjust this for captaincy.

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Really constructive feedback, thank you Bomber. I was hoping someone would take this initial research and hone it and develop it further like this.