You changed your user name from previous years?
Too much of a mouthful. Also found the use of the word massacre a bit aggressive, even though its context was comical
Need 0.1 to fund salah this week
A) watkins to adams (exact)
B) wilson to banford (bank 0.3)
B
B, nice fixtures & shoots on sight.
B
B
B
I have some opinions to shout at you about stats. I think they're being use wrong at times. Please feel free to criticise.
Shots, shots in the box, big chances are outdated dinosaur stats. xG does the same thing, but better. Very little point to them now except to understand how the xG is distributed.
xGI could be improved. This is just xG + xA. The problem is that it assumes goals and assists are of equal importance to us. They're not. For FPL usage, I think you should weight it against points. (6xG + 3xA for defenders, 5xG + 3xA for mids, 4xG + 3xA for forwards). It obviously requires more work and a spreadsheet, so I understand if you cba, but I would love it if this weighted stat was added in the member's area...
xGOT is more useful than xG:
Whilst 'Expected Goals' (xG) is a pre-shot stat that tells us where the shot was taken from, and what type of shot it was, 'Expected Goals On Target' (xGOT) is a post-shot stat that takes into account where the shot ended up (I.e. In the corners of the goal, centre of the goal, off target, blocked etc).
A shot with high xG means very little if there are 5 big defenders between the shooter and the goal who just block it... or the shooter is off balance... or has little time on the ball... or is a bad finisher. In these cases the shot would still be given a high xG rating despite being of no threat - it's bad data.
xGOT gives us the all important context surrounding the shot. In the scenarios listed above, the xGOT rating would be far less, as it should be. A blocked shot is of no threat to the goal. To me xGOT is the best measure of goal threat available to us, and 'xGOT conceded' is the best measure of a team's defence. It's the current king in the member's area and is severely underused.
Do xG figures completely remove all considerations of where opposing players are on the pitch and just estimates the probability of a goal being scored from a given position given historic data?
xG doesn't really account for the quality of the player. Like Mahrez hattie last week
From what I understand, xG takes the position of the shot, and the type of shot, and checks against historical data to see how likely that shot ends up as a goal. So it doesn't take into account the players at all. I think...
This is why xGOT is so much better. It tells us the historical probably of the shot going in based on both the xG of the shot, and where it ended up. And as a result, incorporates context - which is vital imo.
AFAIK xG takes number of defenders between the shooter and the goal into account.
Also, if a player shoots from 40 yards in the top corner, his xGOT might be high as it is destined to go to the top corner, but the same player might not be able to score when in the same situation next 10 times.
xG here would be correct in mentioning that shots like these just have 2% chance to be a goal.
Also, no stat in the world captures this situation (happened with Kane GW1)
Son crosses the ball with tremendous pace across the box, Kane is centimetres away from touching it. If he touches it that's 99% goal. He would have a good xG, a good xGOT. But he didn't touch it!
Nothing beats Eye tests for me.P1. Wait, really? I thought it was just the probability based on the position and type of the shot...
P2. xGOT takes into account the xG afaik. I thought it was the probability of a shot going in based on both the xG, and where it ended up. So it's xG, with a bit extra.
P3. Oh absolutely. Nothing can replace the eye test. Sometimes players don't get a shot off, but are millimetres from a tap in. That wouldn't show in the data. I agree.
P4. Unfortunately, I can't remember every minute of hundreds of matches, so stats are better for me. If you can remember every moment in every game this season then fair play, but for me the infinite memory of stats, although not as accurate as the eye test, is still far more useful than my limited mammalian brain.Agree with P4. But you need not remember everything, just the past couple of gameweeks is enough. Also, highlights when you can't remember them.
Regarding P1, Fbref clearly states the following :
" What sets StatsBomb's xG model apart from others is their use of freeze frames. A freeze frame is the location of all players on the pitch at the moment the shot was taken. Was the goalkeeper in position? Was it an open goal or were there a number of defenders between the shooter and the goal? Was the shooter being pressured? Was it a 1v1 situation with the keeper? "
https://fbref.com/en/expected-goals-model-explained/
Newcastle seriously putting a spanner in the works!!!!
Martinez Forster
Coufal Robbo Justin Chilwell Mitchell
Salah Bruno Grealish Son JRod
Watkins DCL Brewster
1.7itb 2FT
do i stick with what i was going to do or now alter to get 11 players playing:
Stick: Robbo & JRod > KDB & Ayling/KWP (Starting Brewster and no GK)
Twist: Mitchel & Martinez > Ayling & McCarthy or something.
Also Robbo has a nock so might not play anyway..I think fielding 10 without hit could work well?
Or take the opportunity to upgrade Forster? Goalkeepers are not immune from reporting a positive Covid test. Need a working bench in these times. (that said I have Steer, but 2 keepers from the same team not the worsts tactic).
so you think changing my back up keeper could add more value than bringing in KDB?
Best C choice? ( on A but B & C hard to ignore)
A Mahrez
B Kane
C Bruno
#Martinez,
Zouma, Chilwell, Robbo
Bruno VC, Son, Jota, Mahrez C
DCL, Kane, Bamford
Forster, Coufal, Lamptey, Grealish,
.2 bank
I would punt on A if I had him
Ta
C
B could do well if fit
C
Mahrez or Mendy as 3rd City asset?
Mahrez
Mahrez
who's your 2nd?
Currently have Grealish and no GK coupled with an injured Jimi ? (Wonderful)
Best move this week?
A Nyland to McCarthy (GK)
B Jimi to Bamford
C Jimi to Abraham
D Jimi to Jesus
Also what to do with Cancelo?B, of those.
How many can you get out playing this week?B or D.
As for Cancelo - depends on your bench / if that move would be for a hit.
d
B
D) good chance of differential haul by Jesus
D.
May or may not start, but City may have started to hit top gear for goalscoring in PL.
Keep Cancelo.
MartineZ
Dallas cresswell chilwell kwp
Bruno kdb(c) ziyech
Bam dcl vardy
Subs:steer grealish lamptey asm
1ft,0.9 itb, ziyech to mahrez for a try?Tough one as Ziyech has a decent fixture too - but I think Mahrez has the superior goal threat
Chilwell, Dias, KWP, Dallas
KDB, Bruno, Ziyech
Kane, DCL, Bamford
1 ft, 1.4m itb.
(Martinez, Grealish, Stephens, Braithwaithe)
A) 3.9m def to R. James/Lamptey
B) Martinez to any keeper in the game (Mendy)
C) Steer to Peacock-Farrell
D) Kane to Vardy
E) Stephens to Soucek/PodenceA
E gives u best flexibility
Would you WC this team? Barely 11 starters + some other issues.
Son or Grealish to KDB an obvious option for a hit but would need further hits in the GW's ahead.
McCarthy.
Cancelo*, Chilwell, Ayling, Justin*.
Bruno, Jota, Son, Bissouma.
DCL, Kane.
Button, Grealish, Mitchell*, Wilson.
0ft, 4.4m ITB. WC in hand.
WC would be something like this-
McCarthy. (Forster).
James, Chilwell, Dallas. (Targett, Douglas).
Mahrez, Jota, Fernandes, Salah, KDB.
DCL, Welbeck. (Bamford).
0.0m ITB.
Why are you *'ing certain players?
They are in danger of or have already lost their position.
Justin- A bunch of defenders back imminently.
Cancelo- Mendy is taking over on the left side.
Mitchell- looking perma dropped.
Would you WC?.WC it
If you WC don't pick players that won't play like Douglas or Forster or maybe even Welbeck with his injury record and Potter's desire to rotate so often
Honestly I don't think you need to WC too much, but then again you do seem to have a few issues there and with 0ft it might be the right time
Repost for a new audience.
Can I get away with no Salah for the short term?
KDB Bruno Son Jota
Vardy Dcl Bamford
He's the standout captain in only 4 of the next 10 gws imo,which apart from next week, I can cover with other players.
Gw 12 - ful, my alternative one of Vardy/Jota/Son
Gw 15 - WBA, my alternative KDB(c) - NEW
Gw 16 - new, my alternative Son(c) - FUL
Gw 18 - BUR, my alternative KDB(BHA)/Bruno(ful)
Given Bruno has Fulham away in GW18 it goes down to three.
Bruno of the three is a must have
Same boat, seems fine for the meantime, Salah hasn’t got the same link up without TAA and also Jota seems to get into better scoring opportunities atm so a decent stop gap option to fund other premo’s.. that being said, only a matter of time before he goes on a hot streak again
Jota has killed Salah as a FPL asset.
Only 2 double digit hauls this season...
1. against Leeds (2 penalties)
2. against Aston Villa, Liverpool played without Mane which is always the case when he delivers a good source of points
Ive not had him all season so definitely not a must have. (Do regret not having him first 2 weeks instead of Auby).
I have Bruno and I’m more annoyed I can’t get KDB in rather than Salah, but gonna go without both.
Good luck whatever you do, but can still do well with no Salah.
Has there been any update on Zaha? I’ve not seen anything. Assuming there will be a press conference from Woy at some point before this weekend
Mitro + Mitchell >> Bamford + KWP
4 point hit but need to do it to get an XI out there with 3 Villa players in my squad and assume Mitro will be bench again.
Thoughts?Mitro is dead for this season. He'll pick up the odd goal here and there but he looks so unfit and uninterested.
Mitchell might play, Clyne is terrible
Not right sided though.
Doesn't matter these days. With inverted wingers, inverted full backs are horses for courses.
GTG?
Martinez
Cresswell Chillwell Justin
Salah KDB(c) Bruno(vc) Grealish
Vardy Wilson DCLConsidering capping others still
Vardy / Bruno tempt!Fine but you may need some subs coming in.
Kilman first sub just now.
Will add Dallas next week
If budget won't stretch to KDB + Salah:
(A.) Mahrez & Salah
(B.) KDB & JotaB for sure
B
B
B
is villa newcastle reschedule confirmed?
nope
Would you get shot of Raheem Sterling 11.4 now for KDB 11.7, or just carry Free Transfer over to next week and reassess then?
Probably. Ideally you get KDB another way if poss given the potential for Sterling if he starts
your going to have to get rid of sterling and get in KDB at some point so why delay....
Mitro + Mitchell to Bamford+KWP (4 point hit)
Grealish + MItchell to Ward Prowse + Mendy (4 piont hit)
Need 2 subs to get an XI out with 3 villa players in my squad.
Thoughts?
First one.
Mendy(Forster)
Chilwell Lamptey Cancelo Coufal Neco
Salah KDB Ziyech (Riedewald) (Grealish)
Vardy DCL (Watkins)
0 FT's and 0.2 itb
Cancelo to Dias/Reguilon/Castagne for a hit? Or hope that both Neco Williams and Riedwald play and avoid taking any hits?Neco should get minutes still, doubt they rush TAA into this one
Thing is I need both Neco to Riedewald to play if I don't take a hit...
Probably plays vs WBA? Or he is out the picture now
Is he*?
upside of Dias/Reguilon/Castagne given that they will start on -4 is so small it's not worth it IMHO unless you plan on keeping them long-term
Yeah that's the thing, even I don't do this move now I plan to do it maybe in 1-2 weeks anyway.. so it might be worth it long term
I would prefer others over Dias/Reguilon/Castagne but if your going to go to one of these anyway then go for it
I don't think Castagne is fit, think he had a setback (not in the squad for tonight supposedly while Ricardo, Ndidi and Soyuncu all are)
Was going to do Ziyech & Martial to KDB & Bamford
What would you do now that Villa aren't playing? Have 2 FT so could make 3 transfers if any suggestions? Maybe a Watkins replacement?
Martinez, Forster
Chilwell, Cancelo, Coufal, KWP, Lamptey
Ziyech, Fernandes, Salah, Grealish, Bissouma
DCL, Watkins, Martial
0.9 ITBGo w ur initial transfer and ride the blanks, they will double up later on
Martinez > Mccarthy and Watkins > Bamford if youre set on Bamford this week
10.4 for a striker who would you go for
Jesus punt
Jesus or Bamford and upgrade elsewhere
Jesus
Morning - have taken a - 4 so I have 10 outfield players this week and no keeper.
Is it worth taking another - 4 and doing martinez to Mccarthy?
ThanksId say not for a hit unless you want to introduce a rotation strategy
...by upgrading fodder keeper
Not for me orless prefer mcCarthy longrerm
As would become a -2 rather than -4Cheers. Its exact cash so not to upgrade the fodder....
I'm in trouble this week lads. Only 1 FT 0.0m ITB
Martinez** Forster
Robbo Lamptey Dallas Justin Kilman*
KDB Bruno Ziyech Barkley** Bissouma
Kane* DCL Maupay*
I was hoping to save a FT but it looks like I need to make a transfer just to field 11.
Any thoughts considering i have no money in the bank?Barkley to Jones to free up some funds
Liverpool Jones?
Best defender 4.4 as feel kilman out of favour
A) cooper
B) webster/white
C) TaylorB white
C.
B
A Mitro + Mitchell > Bamford + KWP (-4)
B Grealish + MItchell > Ward Proswe + Walker (-4)
C Play Free Hit
A
Βest 5.4 or less forward as Mitrovic replacement to enable Son to Salah next week ?
Thinking of Fabio Silva if nailed due to Jimenez absence
Probably Silva only option?
For me only option worth a gamble or hold swap do both next week if he starts
If not brewster and bank the moneyΙ could hold but if Mitrovic doesn't play I will be fielding 10 men
Here’s one to throw the cat amongst the pigeons between you two. What do you think the chances are of Watkins and Bamford each individually outscoring Kane over December are? Personally can’t see why anyone would hang onto the spurs man tbh. He and spurs have just been massively over performing thus far
Low chance. Neither will out score him, on penalties and sure the fixtures are bit trickier but they still have a solid team capable of stringing wins together. If it happens, it’ll be through Kane, son has been over performing. Just my thoughts
They won't outscore Kane but I don't expect Kane to heavily outscore them either to justify the price difference. I did Kane to Bamford last week and it allowed me to have the midfield 5 that I really wanted
Any ideas here gents?
Martinez
Chilwell Lamptey Semedo
KDB Grealish Son Bruno
Vardy DCL Bamford
4m - Coufal Mitchell Reed
1FT 1.1m ITB
Cheers
I'm struggling for choices this week with what to do!
Martinez (Button)
Telles -- Chillwell -- Cancelo -- (Lewis) -- (3.9)
Bruno -- Kdb -- (Grealish) -- Rodriguez - Ridewald
DCL - Vardy - (Watkins)
$1.2m in the bank 2 FT
Plan next week was to go Rod/Vardy to Salah / Wilson for a -4.
This week is difficult though, as if Cancelo is benched I'm down to 8 men!
Choices in order to get 10 outfield players (no goalie):
1. Lewis / 3.9 to Dallas/KWP. Dallas first on bench in case Cancelo doesn't play) (this would mean Vardy becomes Bamford, not Wilson)
2. Cancelo / Lewis to Walker/Dallas. (also means Vardy becomes Bamford)
3. Forget Man City defence completely. Cancelo/Ferguson to James/Dallas. Gives me 10 outfield players, and allows me to get Wilson next week instead of Bamford.
4. Attack the gameweek!... Martinez/Cancelo/Grealish to Johnstone/Walker/Mahrez for -4
then next week Rodriguez/Vardy to Salah/Adams for -4. (mahrez back to grealish at some point later)4. Attack all out
Steer -> McCarthy for free leaving me with 0.1 ITB and 0FTs?
Only problem is that I won’t be bringing in Jota..
McCarthy
Robertson - Chilwell - Cresswell - Lamptey
(K)DB - Fernandes - Son - Bowen
Vardy - Bamford
(Martinez, Brewster, Mitchell, Grealish)
Good to go?
Selling KDB for Salah next week?
No. Plan was to bring in Jota for Bowen and just run with Robbo * Jota.
Then the Villa game got postponed..
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