Pro Pundits - Simon

Hindsight bias and how not to look back in anger in FPL

The 2014/15 Fantasy Premier League champion Simon March provides his final thoughts of the season as we head into Gameweek 38 of the campaign.


There was a discussion in the FPL community this week about hindsight bias, what it is and what it means for FPL managers. Looking back, it’s obviously an interesting topic, I don’t know why I didn’t write an article on it before… Oh well, better late than never.

Hindsight, which is to gain an understanding of a situation or event only after it has occurred, is problematic for FPL managers in a number of ways but, perhaps most significantly, in the way it confuses our decision-making and how it influences our enjoyment of the game. This article will consider why our tendency towards hindsight occurs and what we might be able to do to control its negative effects.

Hindsight bias is the tendency among humans to perceive past events or outcomes as having been more predictable than they, in fact, actually were. While some might consider this bias about as useful as the ‘remember me’ button in the Fantasy Football Scout Premium Member’s Area, it does in fact serve a purpose. Like most cognitive biases, hindsight as a phenomenon is born out of our evolution and the limitations of the human mind to cope with everything that our environments throw at it.

Because we are regularly bombarded with far more information than we can realistically process, our brains prioritise certain elements of it. Thus, we tend to recall more easily and attribute more importance to more recent events than ones further in the past. As a result, we find ourselves judging decisions in terms of their outcomes because this information is more easily accessible. Consequently, we tend to retrospectively consider this outcome information as being obvious all along, especially compared to whatever basis we were using to make our decision before the event took place.

Recency is not the only driver of hindsight bias however, surprise is also a trigger. When we are surprised by something, our life may depend on our brain quickly making sense of it, so it goes ahead and tries to do that. One unfortunate side-effect of this process is that it effectively neutralizes the ‘surprising’ element of the event in our subconscious, again making it seem like it was obvious all along and creating the somewhat perverse circumstance where, the more surprising an event is, the more we are likely to overestimate our chances of having foreseen it.

So, for example, when Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (£6.5m) bangs in a hat-trick against Liverpool, our first response might be one of surprise, but this will be followed very quickly by our second response, which is to think of reasons why it might actually have been foreseeable.

The final driver of hindsight for this discussion is negativity. We are more likely to apply hindsight to negative outcomes than positive ones. This might partially be due to the emotional, mind-clouding influence that bad news can have on us, but it is also a hardwired survival mechanism. Whereas when something goes well for us, like our captain scoring a hat-trick, we can simply bask in the glory of our own FPL genius, when something goes wrong for us, our mind wants to make sense of it immediately so we can avoid it happening again. Of course, the easiest way to do that is to accept that what you now know was actually quite predictable.

Is all this a problem? Potentially, yes. If we start judging our decisions and the likelihood of events based on their outcomes, we risk polluting our decision-making process with less evidence-based or logical criteria. Instead of accepting that an unpredictable event was, indeed, unpredictable, we start to rely on unreliable factors, believing that they will help us foresee the unforeseeable. We don’t learn anything from this experience, or nothing of value at least, and we potentially become worse FPL managers as a result.

It can also be a problem with respect to our enjoyment of the game. There will, for example, have been plenty of people choosing between, say, Man City’s Riyad Mahrez (£8.1m) and Ferran Torres (£7.0m) ahead of their match against Newcastle in Gameweek 36. The logical decision based on current form, amount of rest and likelihood of starting was almost certainly Mahrez. The correct decision based on outcome was Torres, who outscored Mahrez by 20 points to zero.

So, while out of 100 decisions, the process that might have led to picking Mahrez will likely outperform the decision process that led to picking Torres, anyone who went for Mahrez will feel frustrated, rueful and negative about their ability as an FPL manager because they believe they should have known all along that Torres would start and score a hat-trick and Mahrez would blank entirely. Anyone who went for Torres, meanwhile, will feel like an FPL genius. Yet, based on this decision alone, neither would be entirely true. This event is an aberration which benefited some and not others.

Now, before anybody says anything, I am not saying that there was no skill involved in picking Torres or that his owners just got lucky. We are all, at this point, familiar with the art of ‘upside-chasing’. It is simply to say that one event was, objectively, more likely than the other and the fact that the outcome contradicted this assessment doesn’t, of itself, change that.

What can we do about hindsight bias?

Hat-trick hero Torres making late-season claim as powerful FPL differential

The key to overcoming hindsight bias is learning to evaluate decisions based on their logic rather than their outcome. Rationally-speaking, the outcome should be irrelevant if the logic used in the decision-making process was sound. 

Obviously, this is much easier said than done but one thing that makes it easier is to establish a criteria for making FPL decisions that you stick to and only change when necessary. Not only does this help ensure logic and consistency in decision-making, it allows you to evaluate and refine your process for making those decisions, something which will, over time, actually make you a better FPL manager.

This process may also help FPL managers overcome the negative feelings associated with hindsight bias but, if not, it can also help to consider how you might have come to the decision you didn’t make. 

Using the example from above; to have chosen Torres over Mahrez, a manager would have had to have anticipated the following; Torres would start ahead of Mahrez despite having played City’s previous match (which was a loss in which Torres blanked) rather than Mahrez who was rested for that game entirely, that Torres would play more minutes than Mahrez, despite Mahrez having played around 600 minutes more than Torres this season and, finally, that Torres would outscore Mahrez, something which, by any measure, would have appeared unlikely prior to the match against Newcastle.

Engaging in this process can help you flip your brain back into evaluation mode and, while it might not stop you questioning other aspects of your game, such as your willingness to take bigger risks, it should at least help you avoid your hindsight bias convincing you that your decision was wrong based purely on the outcome.

Pro Pundits 22
397 Comments Post a Comment
  1. el polako
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Really need somebody much more wiser than me to suggest good explosive differential captain for the final GW.
    Currently 19 points of top 100k and really want to finish inside it.

    1. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Dallas?

      1. el polako
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Not bad shout.
        Also thinking about Antonio and one of TAA or Mane as both WHU and LFC have still something to play for.

    2. Free Hat
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Same rankish sort of.
      Going Mane C. Not performing great, but a candidate capable of hauling in a team that needs to go for it.

      1. el polako
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah, might be that he is due his 1 a season master haul in last game.

    3. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I went TAA for 37 and likely will go 38 too. Playing right wing it seems and has several routes to points. Cleanie always looks about to go though

      1. el polako
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        You can just see Benteke scoring a header from one cross in 80 some minute...

    4. schlupptheweek
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I know Rafinha has not got many double digit hauls but he is due a big haul based on his performances.

      1. el polako
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Rumours that Bielsa.may heavily rotate.

        1. mixology
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          Wow, wasn't expecting that. Will have to wait for pressers

        2. FPL_Motty
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          Are there? I've not seen any, mind pointing them out? Seems a very un-Bielsa type thing to do, it's not like he has a squad like city. I can't see Dallas, Bamford, Raphinha, Ayling, Harrison etc not playing

    5. Debauchy
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      "Wise ones" are just as likely to suggest a loser , go gut and be done

      1. el polako
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        In the end I will go with my gut feeling but it's good to listen to others in case I am missing someone interesting when shortlisting my final GW captains.

    6. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      19 points is a decent amount. I'd take a shot at Antonio, Raphinha, Mahrez type of players.

    7. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I would get Mane + Salah and Cap Mane.

    8. Bushwhacker
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Surely have to punt on Aguero starting and every City player passing to him in the six yard box where he’ll be sitting on a deckchair.

    9. No Kane No Gain
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Got to be aguero mate

  2. Free Hat
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    In hindsight playing FPL seems so easy.
    In reality however...

  3. Nomar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Because this goal never really gets the full recognition it deserves.

    Enjoy.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YHbGjCNobQ

    1. el polako
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      The only thing which could make it better for I'd be if Redondo scored it.

  4. The Knights Template
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Captain Hindsight always provides absolute clarity about the best decisions to make.

  5. HD7
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Pick the best duo of differentials from: Harrison, Pepe, Torres, ESR.

    Ofc if you have other ideas, Im listening:)
    Also Raphinha and Lingard arent the best differentials, but if you think they will haul?

    1. Free Hat
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Out of the 4 Harrison because Im not 100% sure whether the others will start.
      Especially arsenal difficult to predict with, laca, auba, willian, odegaard, saka,...

  6. ZAMUNDA
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Adams to Rodrigo? Y/N
    Already have Dallas and Raphinha

  7. The-Red-1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Based on this article, I should be picking Foden over Willock?

    1. Bushwhacker
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Given Willock’s out its a sound move

      1. One Man
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Willock out ?

  8. ZAMUNDA
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Leading ML by 66 points and still 5 points off 10k. Any thoughts what do do here? 1 FT - 0.0 ITB

    Mendy
    TAA - Rudiger - Dallas
    Salah - Bruno - Mahrez - Lingard - Raphinha
    Kane - Antonio

    Forster - Adams - Shaw - Coady

    Adams to Rodrigo and bench Lingard?

  9. Ibralicious
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Why is everyong transferring out Son? Been out of the loop, but is he guaranteed to miss the final GW?

    1. el polako
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Might be something to do with Spurs being abysmal, Kane wanting to leave and Levy letting junior trainee manage first team.

      1. Bobby's Teeth
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Ryan the Temp!

    2. Pasqualinho
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      People are saying that his poor recent form is because he's upset about Kane leaving. Which is very relevant to the article.

      1. Bushwhacker
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Kane can’t leave. Spurs can sell him. This sounds like nonsense.

  10. Aster
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Who of the following is expected to start?

    A) Mahrez
    B) Greenwood
    C) Dias
    D) Shaw

    1. jdp219
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Oof. C ... maybe? Just for the match fitness? Really no idea, though.

    2. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      You could be lucky and get A B and C. Not D

    3. Bushwhacker
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      No

  11. Mr Bird
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Thoughts on Bruno being rested for the Europa final? What are the chances with 2nd in the bag?

    1. Marcin the Pole
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      50-50 I'd say.

    2. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Probably quite high the more I think about it. There is literally 0 need for him to play. 2nd locked in what else is there?

    3. Bushwhacker
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Guaranteed

  12. jdp219
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    1FT, 1.5itb // 43k OR // Lead ML by 62

    1) Bruno > literally any other mid (have Salah)
    2) Mahrez > Bale (have Kane)
    3) Vydra > Rodrigo (have Dallas, Raph)
    4) Bruno, Vydra > [any mid under 10], Bamford (-4)

  13. leocarter27
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    What to do here please?

    Play 1

    A) Konsa (Che h)
    B) Coady (Mun h)
    C) Tierney in for a -4 (Bha h)

    Thanks

    1. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Wouldn't take a hit for a def. Play Coady.. just.. or flip a coin.

  14. Slitherene
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    RmFHt?

    Dubravka | Gillespie
    Shaw Dallas Cresswell
    Salah Mane Auba Rashford
    Wood Antonio Bamford
    | Mee Smith-Rowe Phillips

    1. jdp219
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Looks good, but not sure about Shaw.

    2. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Shaw Wont play. Wheres your Liverpool Def? On a FH I'd probably have both TAA and Robbo. I wouldn't bother with any Utd so I wouldnt get Rashford either.

      Kane still a good option and would be a rank killer if he bangs. Golden boot race on the line.

      And wheres Raphinha? Or could be Harrison but surely must have triple Leeds.

    3. Lemongrab
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I wouldn't pick Rashford Shaw (surely the man Utd b team plays on sun) or Aubamayang (Brighton defence is good).

  15. BantasyFootball
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Chasing ML leader (ahead by 3 points), who has Alisson is goal. Thinking DCL -> Bamford for my team, but should I take a -4 hit to bring in Phillips for Shaw to cover Alission's likely clean sheet?

    My team currently is:

    Martinez
    Azpi TAA Dallas (Shaw Coady)
    Lingard Salah (C) Son Raphinha (Gundogan)
    DCL Kane Antonio

    1. el polako
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Madness, you'll need cs just to brake even.
      Don't do it.

      1. BantasyFootball
        • 2 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Fair point, thanks.
        Been tossing up between Bamford & Nacho, but the former seems the wiser pick

        1. el polako
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          Considered leaving leaving DCL ?
          Everton much better away, City been leaky lately plus got other priorities.
          You could then get Phillips with your FT to cover his Allison.

    2. Bushwhacker
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Palace will score

  16. Neo-Viper
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    What would you do?

    A) Play Nacho
    B) DCL to Anto for - 4 (Have Lingard)
    C) DCL to Bamford for - 4 (Have Raphinha)

    1. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Play Nacho for sure

  17. vincentwsho
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Who will score more in GW38? Need to find a Jota replacement.

    A) Lingard
    B) Raphinha

    1. el polako
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Wait for pressers, there was some talk that he might be back for Sunday.

    2. Neo-Viper
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Raphinha

  18. Parsnips
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Bruno and Son > Pepe and mane!! I feel confident about these moves.

    Would make the team look like

    Martinez
    Dallas shaw Coufal
    Pepe Mane Salah Raph/Lingard
    Kane Bamford Antonio

    Fabri Raph/Lingard Holding Philips

  19. Aster
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Should I keep DCL or sell for Antonio?

    1. RuudUnited89
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Sell!

    2. One Man
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Sell

  20. RuudUnited89
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Guys help me out please!

    It's a long shot i know but I'm desperately hanging onto hope lol. I'm 51 points behind in my mini league but I have triple captain to play! Who should i pick, Salah? Also is it worth me going all out nuts and doing like a minus 12 haha

    I'd appreciate any help

    Cheers guys

    My team is

    Lloris Sanchez

    TAA Dias Dallas Castagne Saiss

    Salah Greenwood Saka Zaha Foden

    DCL Kane Nacho

    Was thinking to do minus 4 for Antonio for Kane and Zaha for Mane?

    1. Bobby's Teeth
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I have no idea where this love for Mane is coming from - seems like a plague across the entire community. The guy can't hit a barn door right now

      1. jtreble
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        “... I have no idea where this love for Mane is coming from ...”. Stats.

        1. Bobby's Teeth
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          Hmm, he looks completely short on confidence to me

          1. MightyGar
            • 3 Years
            2 years, 10 months ago

            It's desperation / nothing to lose. He is a player who could go big, 15+, and has in the past. His current form means he is low-owned. I am considering it, but won't get upset if it fails

            1. Bobby's Teeth
              • 7 Years
              2 years, 10 months ago

              Fair enough

  21. Aster
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Mahrez to Torres?

    Yes or no?

    1. Parsnips
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Nah

      1. Aster
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        You believe Mahrez starts?

        1. Parsnips
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          I would of thought. Before the Brighton game he missed 3 in a row. I’d keep if I had him

    2. artvandelay316
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Better him than Mahrez.

  22. JJeyy
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    So did anyone listen to the experts and bench/sell Lingard against the worst defence in the league?

  23. RedJive79
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Start Digne or Struijk?

    1. Aster
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Struijk

    2. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Struijk

  24. Marcin the Pole
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Mane a good option for the final gameweek? Tempted to buy and captain, chasing.

    1. FFSbet.com
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Yeah,thinks its best option for that

    2. Aster
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Not convinced by Mane

  25. FFSbet.com
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    How many hits are you taking?
    I like hits but cant see any this last GW that could pay off.

    One of Digne,Son,Kane maybe out but can only see Son > Mane(-4) maybe paying off.

    21k and cant make it to 10k,probaby will just use FT.

    1. gooberman
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      No hits for me. Have 2 free.

    2. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Yeah I'm of this opinion. Generally I never take hits for 1 week punts, its always with the next 3 or 5 in mind in comparison. That and theres no stand out options this week I can see. I'm stuck with Digne or Coady or Shaw but its definitely not worth punting with a -4 for that. 4pts is still worth alot, I think roughly ~5k in the top 100k.

      I also think not taking a hit this week will be an auto-rank boost. Probably see an avg of -2pts at least

      1. FFSbet.com
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        True,think not taking hit could pay off more.

        Wanted Digne + Son out (-8) but high chance i end up will less points

        1. grumpyman
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          Sensible. I’ve got four players flagged or unlikely to start so I’ve got to take one unfortunately. Never taken so many hits in the season run-in, it’s been an absolute clusterduck.

        2. FPL_Motty
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          Yeah for sure. Digne got an assist last time against city. Son is still a good pick.

          "Clusterduck" haha. Better than the original. Yeah I've taken the most hits ever this season, but with all the blanks, PPs, doubles etc it has mostly made sense. I've seen some crazy amount of hit taking though

  26. gooberman
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    In 3 days time it will all be over!

  27. Disco Stu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Greenwood starts this week. Yay or Nay?

    1. Aster
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I hope so

  28. Aster
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    DCL to Nacho?

  29. Scots Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    How positive are we really that Bruno won't play?

    It's not like Ole hasn't run him into the ground the rest of the season.

    I'm sure he'll play most the game to be honest, it's just a question if you believe he will return anything.

    1. jtreble
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      And risk injury? Pass.

  30. Parsnips
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Need some help guys...

    Best mid for under 9.1mil pls??

    1. Aster
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Harrison