Moving Target

Wood has proven FPL pedigree – but form is key with the Kiwi

After the surprise capture of Kieran Trippier (£5.0m), the big spending at Newcastle United continued last week with the acquisition of Burnley’s Chris Wood (£6.7m).

Joining for a fee in the region of £25m, Wood does bring some proven Premier League pedigree to Tyneside, having scored 10 or more goals in each of his last four seasons.

Yet the move hasn’t exactly caught the imagination of the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) community, with the New Zealand international’s middling form in 2021/22 plus the lack of a scheduled Double Gameweek for Newcastle meaning that interest so far has been muted.

With the Magpies sitting near the top of our Season Ticker over the next six Gameweeks, we assess the Kiwi striker’s future appeal – or lack of it – in our Moving Target report.

THE HISTORY

Wood made fleeting Premier League appearances with West Brom and Leicester before his big break with Burnley came in 2017/18, and he’s perhaps been underappreciated since.

Not even new teammate Callum Wilson (£7.2m) can say he’s reached the 10-goal mark every year from then onwards, while Wood has hardly benefitted heavily from spot-kick duties like others who can boast of that achievement – there have been only three penalties scored by the Kiwi in his time at Turf Moor.

Also worth noting is that he hasn’t been an ever-present starter at Burnley, not by any distance: he has averaged only 27.5 starts per season in his first four years in Lancashire, despite delivering a respectable 13.5 attacking returns per campaign.

SeasonStarts (+ subs apps)GoalsAssistsBonusPointsPoints per game
2017/1820 (4)101201044.3
2018/1929 (9)103171313.4
2019/2029 (3)141211364.3
2020/2132 (1)123161384.2

On the underlying stats front, Wood can boast of a pretty good goal conversion rate throughout his time at Burnley (20% is a decent level, as a rule of thumb), although his ‘expected goals’ deltas have not reflected this.

SeasonShot-to-Goal Conversion RateActual goals scored minus expected goals (xG) scoredShooting Goals Added (excluding penalties)*
2021/229.1%-2.05-1.73
2020/2117.1%-1.08-0.35
2019/2021.5%-1.75-1.26
2018/1916.9%+1.20-1.67
2017/1825.6%+2.72+1.17

*Shooting Goals Added (or SGA) quantifies finishing ability. It looks at how well a player is shooting compared to the quality of their chances. xG is a measure of underlying chance quality and Expected Goals on Target (xGOT) is a measure of shooting ability. For example, a player whose xGOT is exceeding their xG (a ‘+’ score) is executing better quality shots, given the quality of his chances.


One of the reasons why Wood performs underwhelmingly on the xG front is the fact that many of his chances come from close range. Roughly one in five efforts may find the back of the net but that means that four other opportunities of decent quality (characterized by a higher ‘xG’ score) go begging and lead to the negative scores we see above.

His record of shots in the six-yard box is remarkable over the last few years and he is second behind only Diogo Jota (£8.4m) in 2021/22, so service hasn’t been too much of a problem at Burnley this season despite the goal drought: only one of his 10 attempts from this range in the current campaign has found the back of the net:

SeasonShots in the six-yard box: rank v other Premier League players
2021/222nd
2020/21=12th
2019/201st
2018/191st

THE PROSPECTS

With the injured Wilson out until March, Wood has a clean run at the central striking role in Eddie Howe’s set-up over this favourable six-game stretch.

The New Zealander made an unremarkable debut against Watford, looking isolated at times in his manager’s 4-3-3 system. A lack of service is nothing new for a Newcastle forward: despite Howe’s front-foot reputation, Wilson is at the wrong end of the forwards’ stats table for minutes per shot (50.2) since the change in manager and one of just three big chances in that time came from the penalty spot:

Above: Forwards sorted by minutes per chance from Gameweek 12 onwards

Any teething problems would also be unsurprising given that Wood has been used to playing with a strike partner at Burnley for the best part of four years.

“Chris is getting used to the team and it is slightly different to how he’s used to playing. I thought he led the line well and brought a physical presence to make the ball stick.

“I thought as a team we isolated him in the last period of the game after we scored and that’s something we can’t do.” – Eddie Howe, post-Gameweek 22

Of some encouragement was that the Newcastle new boy managed to get off three goal attempts from in or around the six-yard box, while he was also presented with a one-on-one opportunity by a stray Watford pass before dallying on the ball:

Wood's FPL pedigree can't be ignored - but form

One thing we haven’t touched on, and perhaps the most crucial factor, is form and confidence.

He’s scored just three goals this season and both player and former manager hinted at ennui setting in before his big-money move:

“I’ve been in the Premier League a number of years now, I think I’ve established myself as a proven striker who knows how to score goals.

“I’d been at Burnley for four years, it got to a point where I was in my comfort zone and you never doing anything great when you’re in your comfort zone. So to take my game to the next level, challenging myself at a massive club like Newcastle was the right option and I felt this could be both a great opportunity for me and the club going forward.” – Chris Wood

“He has been performing for a long time and sometimes players do hit a quiet spell. It certainly wasn’t us allowing him to sit in his comfort zone.

“I understand him slightly, maybe he feels he needs a freshness and a difference. I found him an honest fella who knows when he is not doing as well as he can do. He knew he was quieter than what we expected from himself and from us.” – Sean Dyche on Chris Wood’s form before his move

Wood has 17 attacking returns in his last 50 Premier League appearances but 11 of them came in eight run-outs at the back-end of last season.

In his other 42 most recent appearances, he has blanked on 36 occasions.

The softly spoken New Zealander has always seemed like a bit of a confidence player, with similar purple patches arriving at the tail-end of 2017/18 (five goals in five), the second half of 2018/19 (12 attacking returns in 16 starts) and at the start of 2019/20 (six goals in as many games).

Given his current drought and the new surroundings, there seems little going for him at present – but keep his past pedigree in mind for later in the campaign, when Newcastle finally get a Double Gameweek or two and, hopefully, the striker has rediscovered that streaky touch.

And anyone wanting to tap into the Magpies’ decent upcoming run already has a marginally cheaper Allan Saint-Maximin (£6.6m) to consider, with the Frenchman third in the FPL forwards points table and someone who is not just Newcastle’s top shot-taker in the Howe era but also their leading chance creator, too – and assist-making is one area where Wood has struggled in his time in the top flight.

280 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Scots Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Regulion blocks my Laporte points. Annoying

    1. DRIZ ✅
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Lovely

    2. fplgaruda
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Beauty

  2. Warby84
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    My Community Captain
    Moura but no vice C

    Scouts Captain
    Ronaldo Kane (VC)

    What happens if Ronaldo doesn’t play??

    1. DRIZ ✅
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Ronaldo starting

    2. Mario Balofail
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      You will probably wake up in the morning next day a will live your life...probably 🙂

  3. djman102
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Reguillon starts and it looks like Ronaldo starts.

    I'm calling extremely risky (probably foolhardy) bench boost a success just because they all stayed on the bench!

  4. Gooner Kebab
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Bachmann
    TAA, Cancelo, Rudiger
    Mount, KDB(c), Maddison, Bowen, Foden
    Kane, King
    (Sanchez, JRod, Tsiki, Livra)

    Good to roll FT?
    2FT next week to sort out Rudiger and Mount to Robbo and Ramsey/Villa

    1. DRIZ ✅
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      7/10 g2g

  5. Top Lad Dakes.
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Early doors, but where to go from here? Thinking Bowen needs to come in, and kinda fancy Coutinho too… just means I’m running out of midfield slots for Salah coming back. 1FT 2.8m ITB

    Ramsdale (Foster)
    TAA Cancelo Lamptey (Reguilon Livramento**)
    Foden Jota Moura Gallagher (ESR*)
    Ronaldo* Dennis DCL

    1. NorCal Villan
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Move Moura and/or ESR. That facilitates Bowen. Would also look to move Livramento, unless he’s had a miraculous recovery

  6. Thanos
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Thoughts on this WC draft.

    Ramsdale Sanchez
    TAA VVD Cancelo Laporte Royal
    Foden Bowen Martinelli Maddison Gallagher
    Watkins ASM King

    ITB: 5.8 to get back Salah when he is back.

    1. Top Lad Dakes.
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Not too shabby. Not sure about Martinelli though.

      1. Thanos
        • 2 Years
        2 years, 2 months ago

        Yeah, would prefer Saka if he wasn't flagged. Let's see if we get any info on him.

        Thanks!

        1. Top Lad Dakes.
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 2 months ago

          Tbh just not overly high on arsenal in general… may be chance of postponement with them v Burnley next, and then they have two blanks in 4 weeks

    2. DRIZ ✅
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      6.5/10 good for upcoming gw

      1. Thanos
        • 2 Years
        2 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks, pal.

        What changes you might suggest to take this up a notch?

        1. TopBinFC
          • 2 Years
          2 years, 2 months ago

          I would go for wolves keeper or some defenders

  7. Top Lad Dakes.
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Right, Lucas Moura and Reguilon… do bits please.

    Ronaldo… either start and haul, or don’t you dare play. Dennis VC ain’t great, but I’d love Gallagher’s 9pts off the bench

    1. Thanos
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Only have Moura in this match... so yeah.. lets go!

      Hope you get some Reggy jam too 🙂

  8. AD105
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Shall I just pull the trigger on James/Bilva > Laporte/KDB for a -4?

    Only have 0.1 spare so don’t want to get done by any price changes ideally

    1. DRIZ ✅
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Would only do Laporte

    2. Dammit_182
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Maybe keep tabs on the price change sites. Hold off as long as you can

    3. Top Lad Dakes.
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      May as well after games

  9. Dammit_182
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Come on madders. All you have to do is outscore Bruno over his 2 matches. Simples.

  10. Top Lad Dakes.
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Bruno RC and Ronaldo haul would be fantastic

  11. Botman and Robben
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Can Reguilon match Gallagher's 9 pointer?

    1. Rassi
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      He can, but probably won't.

    2. DRIZ ✅
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      No

    3. Dammit_182
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Only if he scores. No way spurs keep a cleanie

    4. Top Lad Dakes.
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      I sure hope so

    5. Philosopher's Stones
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Possible if he gets an attacking return, as I can't see a clean sheet for either sides in this game

  12. Mr. O'Connell
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    All I ask is my red arrow not to turn into a brown one.

    1. Dammit_182
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Perhaps consult your pharmacist first….

  13. Shultan
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Just got home from work & seen this! Sorry if already been discussed

    Premier League considering changing rules around match postponements - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/60030994

  14. The Polymath
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Why has this site started to throw adverts in my face from the bottom of the screen? Quite irritating.

    1. Mario Balofail
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      You wish you could do the same, right?

    2. Union_Jacks
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Clicked that X about 100 times today

    3. Philosopher's Stones
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Agree mate. Really annoying.
      Though I must tell you, this new product me and my friend are launching is game changing. Why don't you check it out for yourself at http://www.clickbait.com. have a nice day 🙂

    4. rokonto
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Innit!

  15. AC/DC AFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Any new transfer is a multiple step process:

    - they don't get Coronavirus or injured.
    - the squad remains fit and the opposition too. Game remains on...
    - your pick is selected. And
    - then they have to do the business on the pitch.

    Fun and games, or not as the case may be?!

  16. Firminooooo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    I will be a little crummpy If Ronaldo(C) blanks tonight. Need some points now to raise my spirits.

  17. FPL Brains
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Wait, so Maguire was a bit of a muppet keeping himself in his fantasy football team.

    1. Philosopher's Stones
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Yeah, think it's been established for a while that Maguire is a bit of a muppet.

    2. Top Lad Dakes.
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Why?

      1. Philosopher's Stones
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 2 months ago

        Has himself in his team.

  18. FFSbet.com
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Cmon Kane(C) get something 38(-4)

    1. THFC4LIFE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Usually scores v Leicester

    2. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Same exact score and hit as me.

  19. Lord of Ings
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Only a Ronaldo brace can save this horrible gameweek for me now.

    1. Top Lad Dakes.
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Pls

  20. Top Lad Dakes.
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    I’ll probably just quicksell Ronaldo if he plays and blanks today

    1. Mr. O'Connell
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      *when

  21. Big boy Bowen
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Maddison and Kane (C) tonight! Could be massive!

    1. FPL Brains
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      You and me are in the same boat sir.

      Hattrick for Kane and a brace for Maddison?

      1. Big boy Bowen
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 2 months ago

        Yes please sir

        1. FPL Brains
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 2 months ago

          Well in a couple hours, we'll either be happy or miserable.

  22. ClassiX
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Man Utd team news
    Team to face Brentford: De Gea, Telles, Varane, Lindelof, Fred, McTominay, Elanga, Greenwood, Fernandes, Ronaldo.
    Subs: Heaton, Henderson, Jones, Maguire, Mata, Martial, Rashford, Matic, Van de Beek.

    Brentford team news
    Team to face Man Utd: Lossl, Jansson, Pinnock, Sorensen, Roerslev, Canos, Jensen, Janelt, Norgaard, Mbeumo, Toney.
    Subs: Fernandez, Henry, Forss, Wissa, Ghoddos, Ajer, Baptiste, Bidstrup, Stevens, Baptiste.

    1. DRIZ ✅
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Bruno (c)

    2. tbos83
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Ronnie! Siuuuu

    3. Philosopher's Stones
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Ronaldo!! Hallelujah!!

    4. FPL Brains
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Lol, Sky Sports reporting United will start with 10 men then.

    5. FPLtfs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Dalot?

      1. FPL Brains
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 2 months ago

        Dalot also starts.

    6. Big boy Bowen
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Get in!

      1. Big boy Bowen
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 2 months ago

        Bruno to save the day!

    7. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Utd just going with 10?

    8. Hooky
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Utd going with 10 men? Must be confident

    9. Ze_Austin
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Quite the disadvantage for Man U, with 10 men

    10. Utopsis
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Who's playing RB for United??

    11. El Presidente
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Missing one ManU

      1. dunas_dog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 2 months ago

        Dalot in team but omitted from reported lineup

    12. Mr. O'Connell
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Bruno playing RB or CB then?

    13. AleksaMaster
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      United so good they start with 10 players

    14. fplgaruda
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      United only field 10?

      1. DRIZ ✅
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 2 months ago

        Classix wanted first dibs

      2. Dammit_182
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 2 months ago

        Playing 2-2-2-2-1

    15. Firminooooo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Thank you god. Ronaldo haul to save my GW.

    16. TKC07
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Just like Dalot FPL owners, even broadcasters are not counting on Dalot..

  23. Rassi
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Dalot injured?

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      In team

  24. Ginkapo FPL
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    FA investgating a suspicious yellow card given to an Arsenal player with large gambling swings.

    Cough Xhaka "pull" on Silva Cough

    1. DRIZ ✅
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Xhaka at Leeds

  25. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Oh look CR7 starts, but but he didn't travel with the squad , I hate stupid people !! Doh

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Maybe he travelled alone ?

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 2 months ago

        Of course, I said he was with the squad this morning

    2. Kun Tozser
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Bentley over team

    3. TopBinFC
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Yeah, the hysteria and pure BS on here is laughable

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 2 months ago

        Does my head In sometimes

      2. Miniboss
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 2 months ago

        Don’t get me started on that Duffy triple captain chaos few years back…

        1. JohnnyRev7
          • 13 Years
          2 years, 2 months ago

          I'm still having counselling to this date.

  26. The Suspended One
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    We captained Ronaldo for Brentford anyway

    1. Firminooooo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Thats the spirit!

    2. Philosopher's Stones
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      Please don't jinx this, mate. Not today.

  27. EmreCan Hustle
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Is that a 4-2-2-2 or a 4-4-2 diamond?

    1. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 2 months ago

      He just said they’re playing with a 433

  28. Zimo
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Alright Ronaldo! Don't disappoint! I want a solid 1 point only!

  29. OLD Rafiki
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    goat goat goat goat goat, let's GOOOOOO!!

  30. Miniboss
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 2 months ago

    Could it be this disaster of a gameweek ends in tears of joy? Ronaldo(c), you’re my only hope.