Throughout the 2022/23 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season, our stellar team of Pro Pundits, Hall of Famers and guest contributors will be sharing their thoughts and own transfer plans.
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Here, seven-time top 10k finisher Zophar takes stock of the current situation for team stats, player stats and fixture runs.
What a World Cup it has been! If you were completely tuned out of FPL, it’s been a much-needed break. Now, with the season about to resume, I figured it would be good to look back at the first 16 Gameweeks and get back into the groove.
Does the data from the first 16 Gameweeks matter?
This is the first question I asked myself. With such a long break, it’s almost like another pre-season for clubs. How they shape up might be quite different, especially early on when some players will be sharper than others.
I think it does matter – even though there may initially be some odd results and performances, we can expect teams who were attacking and defending well to continue in the same vein. There are some exceptions though, with injuries to key personnel like Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m).
So let’s dive into the data, starting with attack.
Season so far – Team attacks
I have sorted this table by minutes per expected goal (xG) due to an uneven number of matches played. The top five attacks in the league are quite clear – Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur are the only teams to have accumulated a non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) tally of over 20.
Out of these, Man City and Spurs probably have upcoming Double Gameweeks so their players need to be prioritised, although it does depend on the FA Cup third-round tie between City and Chelsea.
Speaking of the west Londoners, their xG averages at roughly a goal per game, which is only marginally better than Nottingham Forest. ‘Potterball’ has not yet taken off after Thomas Tuchel’s departure and therefore Chelsea are a bit difficult to predict.
Assets for their Double Gameweek 19 are tricky to identify, particularly in attack given Graham Potter’s rotation and the strong displays of Christian Pulisic (£5.7m) and Hakim Ziyech (£5.5m) at the World Cup.
Arsenal’s data should arguably be taken with a sack of salt, as I believe Jesus was a major contributor to their style of play. He was constantly harassing defenders and creating opportunities, so there is no doubt in my mind that the Gunners are worse off without him.
I still expect them to do ok but think they’ll drop from second to sixth or seventh in this xG table during his absence.
Elsewhere, Wolverhampton Wanderers have a new manager in Julen Lopetegui, so some improvement is to be expected.
But my general thinking is that I want at least five or six attackers from the top teams in the above table.
Season so far – Team defences
Man City and Arsenal are far ahead when it comes to defensive numbers and my feeling is that at least two of my four defensive spots need dedicating to their assets. Kieran Trippier’s (£5.9m) credentials do not even need mentioning, he is a complete no-brainer.
One question did pop up in my mind though. With Arsenal’s defensive picks also having goal threat – particularly Gabriel (£5.2m) – is spending £7.4m on Joao Cancelo‘s poor attacking numbers worth it?
Why not just double up on the Gunners’ defence and spend that £2m elsewhere? It even opens up the option of having three City attackers.
Manchester United’s above data does not reflect their last six Gameweeks, where they were extremely frugal in terms of conceding big chances. Their assets are also on my radar, especially as last season caused lots of low initial prices for this time.
However, with both Lisandro Martinez (£4.5m) and Raphael Varane (£4.8m) unlikely to feature throughout the Christmas schedule, their backline becomes less appealing in the short term.
Brighton and Hove Albion’s data is inflated by the early Potter fixtures. Under new head coach Roberto De Zerbi, they don’t instil much defensive confidence.
Speaking of data distortion, Leicester City’s first 15 matches have been split into two very different defensive spells. They had excellent numbers during the most recent eight Gameweeks, so the combination of Danny Ward (£4.1m) and Daniel Iversen (£3.9m) should definitely be under consideration.
Season so far – Player data
Conclusion
The purpose of this article was to bring both you and myself up to speed after the long six-week break. I will be sharing more thoughts and selection dilemmas next week, along with my initial draft, so until then I hope I have left you with some food for thought.
We discussed our initial thoughts on a recent episode of The FPL Wire which you can check out below.
See you next week!
