Chelsea’s busy summer in the transfer market looks set to continue with the imminent arrival of Joao Pedro from Brighton and Hove Albion.
The Brazilian international, who has put pen to paper on a seven-year contract, will link up with his new teammates in the US and could feature at the FIFA Club World Cup.
In this Moving Target piece, we assess Joao Pedro’s Fantasy Premier League (FPL) appeal.
JOAO PEDRO: FPL HISTORY
| Season | Club | Starts (sub apps) | Goals | Assists | Bonus | Points | Points per start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Brighton | 23 (4) | 10 | 6 | 26 | 126 | 4.9 |
| 2023/24 | Brighton | 19 (2) | 9 | 3 | 12 | 104 | 3.6 |
| 2021/22 | Watford | 15 (3) | 3 | 1 | 4 | 60 | 2.5 |
| 2019/20 | Watford | 0 (3) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | – |
Joao Pedro joins Chelsea having produced 19 goals and nine assists in 48 Premier League appearances over two years at Brighton.
In his first season at the Amex, he averaged 3.6 points per start.
Playing off the left, as a No 10 and a centre-forward, Brighton’s system under Roberto De Zerbi allowed Joao Pedro to develop in various roles.
No matter what position, however, the Brazilian would naturally gravitate towards the pockets in the left half-space.
Above: Joao Pedro’s touch heatmap in 2023/24
Fabian Hurzeler was brought in to replace De Zerbi in the summer of 2024.
Adopting a similarly versatile role (see below), the Brazilian achieved his best FPL return to date, with 126 points, thanks to 10 goals and six assists.
Those figures are made all the more impressive considering he only started 23 league matches.
JOAO PEDRO: UNDERLYING STATS
Joao Pedro’s attacking metrics were not especially impressive last season, particularly when compared to his performances under De Zerbi in 2023/24.
| 24/25 (under Hurzeler) | 23/24 (under De Zerbi) | |
|---|---|---|
| Mins per shot | 41.7 | 28.0 |
| Mins per shot in box | 52.9 | 30.4 |
| Mins per shot on target | 98.0 | 84.0 |
| Mins per chance created | 65.0 | 55.0 |
| Mins per expected goal (xG) | 220.1 | 175.2 |
| Mins per expected assist (xA) | 634.0 | 445.6 |
Still, his high involvement in shot-creating actions (3.32 per 90 minutes in 2024/25) indicates that he was heavily involved in the final third, with his ability to progress the ball through passes and carries key.
He also ranked highly for through balls (10) and fouls won (46), with three of those fouls resulting in penalty kicks.
SHOT MAP – 2024/25
KEY PASSES AND ASSISTS – 2024/25
WHERE JOAO PEDRO FITS IN AT CHELSEA
Chelsea’s attacking options have already been bolstered in the summer window.
Liam Delap and Estevao Willian have arrived from Ipswich Town and Palmeiras respectively, and they will almost certainly be joined by Borussia Dortmund winger Jamie Gittens in the coming days.
The arrival of Joao Pedro adds another versatile option, who could play as a left winger, No 10 or centre-forward.
Given his capacity to operate in multiple attacking roles, it will be worth monitoring the Blues’ pre-season friendlies to gain a clearer understanding of Enzo Maresca’s tactical intentions.
Known for his ability to link midfield to attack, it’s perhaps more likely we’ll see Joao Pedro play behind the striker, either as a No 10 or narrow left-winger.
In the FIFA Club World Cup, Enzo Maresca has experimented with various systems.
He played Cole Palmer as the No 10 in the win over LAFC, then on the right wing in a 4-3-3 against Flamengo.
For the round-of-16 against Benfica, Palmer surprisingly moved to the left, which meant Maresca could deploy a midfield trio of Romeo Lavia, Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez.
Enzo played as the No 10, so Joao Pedro could potentially slot into this role, with the Argentine moving back into the midfield pivot.
What is clear, however, is that the Brazilian’s arrival provides Chelsea with more variety in how they approach games.
Above: How Chelsea lined up for their FIFA Club World Cup clash against Benfica, via BBC
FINAL THOUGHTS
Looking at the fixtures, Chelsea assets certainly have the chance to play their way into our plans.
According to the Season Ticker, the Blues have the most favourable run from an attacking perspective in Gameweeks 1-6.
Joao Pedro has shown flashes of his potential as a Fantasy asset at Brighton, and under Maresca, it could be that he can take his game to the next level.
That said, we’ll probably need to assess the Italians’ teamsheets before being in a position to trust him as a viable Fantasy option.
Should the Brazilian become a regular starter, there is certainly potential for him to flourish in his new surroundings, but there are concerns, even if he were to be priced up favourably around £7.0m.
The Brazilian’s goal tally in 2024/25 was enhanced by successfully converting five penalties. It’s highly unlikely Palmer will give up spot kick responsibilities for Chelsea, so that is one source of points that probably won’t be available to him.
Then there is the likes of Palmer, Delap, Gittens, Nicolas Jackson, Noni Madueke and Pedro Neto all vying for positions in Maresca’s first XI.
Even if Joao Pedro does start regularly, those players will likely eat into his minutes, particularly once the UEFA Champions League campaign gets underway.
There have been a few disciplinary issues over the years, too.
As a result, many will rely on the security of Palmer as their preferred Chelsea attacker to start the season, giving us time to assess Joao Pedro’s impact on the Blues’ attack.
