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11 May 2014 25 comments
Bun Rab Bun Rab
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Another new season rolls around and another manager is installed at Chelsea. Jose Mourinho returned: the second coming. The Ex. Would we fall in love all over again or would we remember the familiarity, boring times and arguments behind our split? The chopping and changing at the top had been familiar for a while now and brought trouble for team continuity: never a good thing from a Fantasy Football perspective. With young and creative players outnumbering solid experienced campaigners, Chelsea fans wondered how Mourinho would work out. Would Lukaku finally get a run out? Who would be the transfer targets? And most importantly, what would the starting line-up be – who were the new untouchables?

All this concerned not just Chelsea fans, but the whole Fantasy Football community, as thanks to winning the Europa League in the previous season, Chelsea were handed an opening double Gameweek for the second season running. They welcomed Hull and Aston Villa to Stamford Bridge in Gameweek 1, then traveled to Old Trafford before a blank arrived Gameweek 3. Chelsea were firmly on the radar – their players were prime transfer targets from the first kick.

The Season

Gameweeks 1-17
In the three games before Chelsea leave for the Super Cup, the 10.5-priced Juan Mata, midfield fulcrum and player of the season for the last two terms, with 17 goals and 34 assists, plays a total of 65 mins against Hull, Villa and Man Utd, ruining many people’s opening week. He was coming back from injury but had played some of pre-season. In the two weeks after the United game, Mata’s price drops 0.6m and his season from a Fantasy perspective is essentially over (at Chelsea anyway) as he is unable to regain his place – even as Chelsea fans rage at their lack of ability to break teams down. Over the same games, Lukaku, a snip at 8.0, with only Fernando Torres and Demba Ba for competition and red hot in pre-season, manages only 40 minutes in sub appearance across the three games. With Schurrle preferred up front against Man U, Lukaku’s price drops 0.6m as well as Chelsea make a mockery of many a Fantasy manager’s best-laid plans at the start of the season. Then Eto’o signs and Lukaku moves out on loan to Everton. In his first three games, the Cameroonian scores four goals, leading some Fantasy managers to believe there is a viable cheap Chelsea striker option for the whole season, though his inconsistency leads to frustration for many.

Mourinho does attempt to play a more open, attacking style of football early on, letting the players have their freedom – and it works, as by the turn of the year, Chelsea are only 2 points behind Arsenal. Hazard, in particular, and Oscar sweep up the points, but the constant rotation amongst the midfielders and forwards means it’s hard to form fluent partnerships. De Bryne is too flashy and is dropped after failing to make an impact. Willian arrives and is quickly installed in the role in “the hole” behind the forwards. He looks like a ‘Mourinho player’, working hard for the team, covering back an allowing Hazard and Oscar a little more freedom, but this affects his output, as even when on set pieces, he only claims a solitary goal and assist in nine games: paltry returns for a player with his Fantasy price tag. Despite the attacking intentions, John Terry is back and leading the team and snapping up more points than most of the forward thinking players with two goals and five clean sheets helping him to a healthy first half total of 85 in the FPL. However, the team stick with the open tactics throughout until in December they concede eight goals in four games and even though they won three of those, have the fourth best attack (35 goals) and second tightest defence (19 conceded), Mourinho loses his ‘happy one’ tag and reverts to type.

2013 (GW 1-19) Top points scorers:
Defenders – Terry 85 pts (Ivanovic 60 pts)
Midfielders – Hazard 119 pts (Oscar 75 pts)
Forwards – Eto’o 42 pts (Torres 40 pts)

Gameweeks 20-37
The second half of the season saw Chelsea adopt a more safety-first approach. It’s good news for the defensive points but bad news for the already inconsistent forward four. Matic and Salah arrive. Matic, especially, looks to be what Chelsea have been missing – offering a quick transition from defence to attack with a positive outlook and incisive passing. This was highlighted by with 4 assists, 20 chances created and an 85% passing rate in his first 15 games. Matic quickly showed his credentials in the defensive midfield position by making Yaya Toure’s life a misery at the Etihad. Mata and De Bryne are sold on and Mata goes on to further frustrate at Old Trafford. Hazard goes off the boil and the only thing that becomes more consistent is his inconsistency, but with many people having money tied up in him, he lingers in most Fantasy teams before a slight injury and set-to with Mourinho allow Fantasy managers to move him on later in the season. Oscar struggles with injuries and no one steps up to the plate to cover for either of them. Willian (3 goals 2 assists), Salah (2 goals, 1 assist) and Schurrle (4 goals, 1 assist) show glimpses now and again and tempt investment, but none can cement a first team place. In Fantasy terms, the midfield becomes something of a no-go area, having previously been the most Fantasy-rich part of the team. However, the defence to takes over. Luiz is moved forward into the holding role and the back five becomes an immovable object. To put it in perspective, in the following 18 matches, the defence registers 12 clean sheets and concedes only 7 goals: the best in the league. Terry earns 15 bonus points over this period and he, Ivanovic and Cahill all make the top eight points-scoring defenders at the end of the season. However, despite this resilience, Chelsea are still ranked third for goalscoring in the second half of the season behind Liverpool (55) and City (46) with 34. The conclusion? Don’t expect Mourinho to change too much next season.

2014 (GW 20-37) Top points scorers:
Defenders – Cahill/Ivanovic 97 pts (Terry 87/Azpil 80)
Midfielders – Hazard 81 pts (Oscar 58/Willian 56/Matic 53)
Forwards – Eto’o 48 pts (Torres 40/Ba 38)

The Defence
The back five for the first three games was Cech, Ivanovic, Cahill, Terry and Cole and they only conceded a solitary goal. This is only broken up by the start of the Champions League season and Luiz is brought into defence, starting in place of Cahill for five of the subsequent seven league games, with Chelsea conceding six goals in the five that the Brazilian played in. Cahill is then brought back in and only misses three more games the rest of the season. In October and Novemeber Cesar Azpilicueta is brought in for Cole for a couple of Champions League games before forcing his way into the first XI for league matches, making the left-back position his own. This gave Fantasy managers a 5.3-priced way into a defence that was constantly tightening up and would go on to only concede seven goals in 18 games played in 2014.

Best Option – Terry – Captain. Leader. Bonus Point magnet with 29 total bps.
Worst Option – Luiz – Failed to cement a starting role and is still yet to convince.

One to look out for 14/15 – The same back four with maybe a new left-back.

Midfield
Oscar and Hazard, outside of the defence, are the most nailed on and creative players at the club. Oscar is praised constantly by Mourinho at the start of the season and is favoured over Mata. He manages five goals and two assists in the first half of the season and works hard, looking like he will only get better, before succumbing to niggling injuries. Hazard, however, is the Chelsea player to have. Virtually guaranteed 90 mins every game, he goes on to accrue 14 goals and 10 assists. Surprisingly the only question would be his consistency of output and he tended to score big and then do little to nothing in the following weeks.

Best Option – Hazard. The one spark to the attacking side this season.
Worst Option – Ramires. Went from regular to card magnet and liability.

One to look out for 14/15 – Matic/Salah. Both cheap, Matic is guaranteed of his start, likes a shot and may be brought down from his 6.0 price-tag given that he plays a defensive midfield role.

Forwards
At Chelsea, the forward line is an ever changing gamble and no striker completes the full 90 minutes until October. In fact, Torres only completed one full game before Christmas and Eto’o only two. Between them they manage five Premier League goals in those five months, meanwhile Lukaku scores eight. In fact, over the entire season, the three combined strikers scored 18 league goals. Lukaku ended the season with 14. In Fantasy terms, although the Chelsea strikers averaged over three points per game, only one of them managed to make three figures in points or double figures in goals for the season: not good enough for a team expected to challenge for the title.

Best Option – Lukaku at Everton.
Worst Option – Having a Chelsea forward

One to look out for 14/15 – Whoever is signed. Things can only get better.

In Summary
Overall it was an acceptable season for Chelsea fans; getting to the Champions League semi-final and challenging for the title. The team is taking shape and depending on who is bought and sold, it looks to be in a much better position to challenge for the title next season.

In Fantasy terms, Chelsea under Mourinho means clean sheets and if the Bonus Point System stays the same next season, investment in at least one Chelsea defender will be a must. If Hazard stays, he would be the attacking option of choice and Oscar could be a good option, providing he can stay fit.

Player of the season – Hazard – 14 goals, 10 assists, 23 bonus points. All that for 9.5m and after a slow start

25 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Heydudes13
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 7 months ago

    Hey.

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  2. Aaron Ramessi - Straya
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 7 months ago

    this is great

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  3. Van Dal
    • 15 Years
    11 years, 7 months ago

    Whoaa

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  4. Zep
    • 15 Years
    11 years, 7 months ago

    Great article, thanks...

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  5. Amateur Pundit Zan
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 7 months ago

    Is this where the cool kids are hanging out? Can i join?

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    1. Amateur Pundit Zan
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 7 months ago

      *all the cool kids quickly excuse themselves leaving me hanging awkwardly*

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  6. Heydudes13
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 7 months ago

    Wow. Loved that. Nicely put.

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  7. petergriff
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    11 years, 7 months ago

    Great article, Kosteevo.

    Well done FFS for setting up this community content outlet.

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    1. Bun Rab
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 7 months ago

      Agreed. This can only lead to more knowledge for us all!

      Thanks btw.

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  8. Margarido
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 7 months ago

    Great post.
    Had Terry since gw1. Probably gona go the same route in 2014/15.

    If Chelsea signs on of D.Costa, Falcao, Cavani, Rooney, i expect a minimum of 20 goals and 7/8 assists.

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    1. Bun Rab
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 7 months ago

      Thanks, Pemaia.

      Nice move! I had Cech from gw1 and that was my keeper sorted for the season. Prefer your route next year!

      Realistically it would be Costa and it could easily beat both those totals if this years stats on creativity continue.

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  9. Bun Rab
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 7 months ago

    Thank you for the kind words everyone and a special thanks to Jonty (I assume) for making my ramblings coherent!

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  10. Defcons are for Kinnear
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 7 months ago

    After the criticism Maureen has faced in the press about his negative style, will his defence remain solid?

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    1. Bun Rab
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 7 months ago

      I think they will. I believe we will start next season playing the more expansive and high pressing style we did at the start of this one..That only gave us 6 cleanies in 19 but the team knows what he wants now. I don't think Mourinho cares what the press think, or even Roman Abramovich too much. He only cares about results. His default setting is to tighten up in big games or if he feels the points are in danger and i don't see that changing much.

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      1. Defcons are for Kinnear
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 7 months ago

        So the defence is still reliable for CS? You seem to contradict yourself "believe we will start next season playing the more expansive and high pressing style we did at the start of this one..That only gave us 6 cleanies in 19"

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        1. Bun Rab
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          11 years, 7 months ago

          Yes. But not as reliable as the 2nd half of this season.

          The contradiction appears because you missed the important end of the sentence... "but the team knows what he wants now". It's hard not to write a long reply on it but early on the team were adapting to his tactics and not tracking back in the way he likes. Hence the dropping of Luiz and Schurrle and the eventual sales of players like Mata and De Bryne. Followed by the purchases of Willian and Salah. They've been taught and understand the mentality is to defend first then push at pace into the spaces created, rather than a more attack first and defend when needed approach. Barring a massive change in the back 4 I will have at minimum 1 Chelsea def next season.

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          1. Defcons are for Kinnear
            • 12 Years
            11 years, 7 months ago

            Thank you 🙂

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  11. Bøwstring The Carp
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 7 months ago

    Great article Kosteevo, love it 🙂

    Cahill on my radar for next season. Very solid player

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    1. Bun Rab
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 7 months ago

      Thanks BTT. If he gets more confident going forward he could easily be our top scoring defender. Has a stupidly good shot for a CB.

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  12. Saint Domingo
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 7 months ago

    Good stuff Kosteevo thanks for this.

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  13. Ryan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 7 months ago

    Now that Chelsea have a new striker can we expect big things from him? Will he be the key to unlock opposition defences?

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    1. Bun Rab
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 7 months ago

      The honest answer is i hope so! Chelsea don't have the best record with big name strikers Fleck, Sutton, Weah, Mutu, Crespo, Sheva, Torres off the top of my head. Let us not forget Drogba was booed by home fans when coming on for his first couple of seasons and Lukaku doesn't get to even stay at the club!
      This being said we were 1st in attempts this season (692) with the 3rd most on target (222) with the figures spread across the season. However we were 8th in conversion rate (10.3%) and 10th in shot accuracy (32.1% behind Fulham and Palace) showing we get into the right places, but don't finish (Cardiff was a perfect example).
      Looking at those stats, having a striker that can hit the target will only increase those % numbers and surely lead to goals.

      I'm running low on time right now but i am looking at what sorts of figures our strikers had and what % that was of our overall shots as with the likes of Hazard, Oscar, Willian, Schurrle, Salah and Lampard they like a pop.

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      1. Ryan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        11 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah it would be an interesting study to get an idea of how much of the pie Chelsea strikers are getting when it comes to shots on goal. To get an understanding you'd need to compare that with other teams as well.

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        1. Bun Rab
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          11 years, 7 months ago

          Well from Chelsea first. For this I have just taken the numbers of Torres, Eto'o & Ba. I've decided to exclude trying to work out the individual games where someone like Schurrle started up front or after subs at times we pushed Hazard or Willian into a false 9 etc. Also I have left out the stats for Mata, De Bryne & Essien who all contributed, but too a minimum level. All players are as their FPL position.

          With that in mind:
          Of the 692 attempts and 506 chances created over the season the Strikers had 151 shots and created 59 chances. This says that they were involved in 17.52% of all attempts. This looks low, even given that’s its only 1 place of 11 and constantly rotating.

          Taking all their minutes into account this means that a Chelsea striker was involved in creating or taking a shot every 17.87 mins. Min 4 a game. This seems positive.

          However the accuracy and conversion stats tell the main story.
          Torres: Attempts - 61, Accuracy - 26.2%, Conversion rate - 8.2 % 😯
          Eto'o: Attempts - 59, Accuracy - 40.7%, Conversion rate - 15.3 %
          Ba: Attempts - 31, Accuracy - 38.7%, Conversion rate - 16.1%

          In comparison a look at the midfield shows they had 397 shots and created 341 chances. This means they were involved in approx 61.6% of all attempts. Fun stat, Mikel has a higher conversion rate than Torres at 11.1% and Ramires was lowest at 2% (1 goal from 51 attempts).

          An answer overall? Assuming the new striker gets the same amount of chances this season if not more through more game time, than an improvement looks likely. Or at least difficult to get worse! It looks like we already have the key to unlock defences but strikers who walk into the door or trip over the steps.

          Hopefully in similar articles we can start to compare and see who gets the most 'action'. I would like to see how this compares to other 1 striker teams who don't rotate as much i.e. Arsenal, Everton or 2 striker teams like Liverpool. I fear if i start doing others i will miss the summer! Hope this helps.

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  14. Squeakybumtime
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    11 years, 7 months ago

    Great article. looking forward to a preview in august for the new campaign.

    Same to Demel for the West Ham post (comments are disabled so couldn't post there)

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