Some strikers always seem to score with every shot, while others are used to seeing their goal attempts land in row Z. This analysis looks in depth at goal conversion rates and attempts on goal in order to identify the key groups of strikers.

Method

To avoid including strikers that only play a bit-part for their clubs, I have included only those who have played more than 500 minutes of Premier League  football this season. Whilst I appreciate this obviously excludes a few players who would otherwise be great candidates when fit (for example Daniel Sturridge), I feel the data is much more controlled and robust as a result. I was then left with a sample of 32 players. From these, I took their total shots-in-the-box figures to date, as well as calculating the goal conversion rates as a percentage of all shots in the box, as opposed to total shots. A limitation of this chart is that it discounts shots outside of the box, but I have assumed such goals to be rare occurrences, especially for strikers. Future research could look to include this too.

In order to produce the four ‘segments’, I have split the axes out by the mean goal conversion percentage and the mid-point / median for shots in the box (to better control for more / fewer minutes played). I have removed those players that fall  +/- 5% from the mean goal conversion statistic from the analysis, as these are players whose goal conversion rates are around the average figure.

Results

The chart below looks at the four categories of striker identified in the research: clinical, trigger-happy; clinical, shot-shy; goal-shy, trigger-happy; and goal-shy and shot-shy.

Four Key Groups of Strikers

Clinical, Trigger-Happy Strikers

• There are four players who have high goal conversion rates of 5% or greater than the average, and are also greater than the mid-point in terms of shots in the box. These are players who are both clinical and getting the shots away with regularity. This is likely to continue, although please note that Diego Costa and Saido Berahino’s high goal conversion percentages are likely to regress somewhat over time.
  • Sergio Aguero (+31.5, +6%)
  • Diego Costa (+11.5, +18%)
  • Charlie Austin (+8.5, +6%)
  • Saido Berahino (+7.5, +12%)
• *(Notable mention to Diafra Sakho, at +10.5, +4%, who just misses the cut)

 Clinical, Shot-Shy Strikers

• There are also seven players who have high goal conversion rates but lower than average shots in the box. These are those who have been feasting on scraps, but tend to be taking their chances when they get them. However, goal conversion rates would be expected to regress in this population, unless they start firing more shots in the coming weeks:
  • Leonardo Ulloa, Steven Fletcher, Nikica Jelavic, Steven Naismith, Abel Hernandez, Wayne Rooney and Marouane Chamakh

Goal-Shy, Trigger-Happy Strikers

• Eight players fit the bill in this category. These are the players who are not hitting the net with the regularity they should be, but are firing a greater than average number of shots in the box. Consequently, you would expect these players to start scoring more goals in the coming Gameweeks, provided they keep on getting the chances. However, the caveat is that this could be due to a number of factors: the ‘type’ of chances, the ease of chances, the proficiency in shooting, or of course, bad luck.
  • Graziano Pelle (+25.5, -6%)
  • Robin van Persie (+8.5, -7%)
  • Danny Welbeck (+6.5, -10%)
  • Lucas Jutkiewicz (+4.5, -20%)
  • Edin Dzeko (+3.5, -9%)
  • Danny Ings (+2.5, -9%)
  • Emmanuel Adebayor (+0.5, -9%)
  • Mario Balotelli (+0.5, -20%)

Goal-Shy, Shot-Shy

• Finally, we have three players in this category who, having played a lot of games, are both goal shy and shot shy. These are players that should be avoided from an Fantasy perspective, as they’re neither achieving higher than average goal conversion or getting the shots away.
  • Yoan Gouffran, Connor Wickham and Jamie Vardy

Conclusion

Aguero, Austin and Sakho are scoring goals at only a slightly greater than average rate, and are firing the shots away with regularity and continue to offer the best potential as Fantasy Football assets. Costa and Berahino are great finishers and still worth investing in, but their high conversion rate is unlikely to be maintained. However, they could continue to score goals with a similar level of consistency if they increase their number of attempts.

Players in the goal shy, trigger happy category, such as Pelle and Van Persie have the greatest potential to score more goals over the coming weeks, provided they continue to get the same number of shots from inside the penalty area. Those looking at offloading Welbeck and Pelle may be inclined to think again given these statistics.