Why I reject the ‘stats vs eye test’ debate when making FPL decisions

Three-time top 5k finisher Seb Wassell compares FPL statistics against the famed ‘eye test’
| Player | Team | Price | Progress | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherki | MCI | 6.4m | 144.0% | Very Likely |
| Casemiro | MUN | 5.7m | 107.4% | Very Likely |
| O'Reilly | MCI | 5.1m | 105.1% | Very Likely |
| Dewsbury-Hall | EVE | 5.1m | 103.3% | Very Likely |
| Darlow | LEE | 3.9m | 98.8% | Maybe |
| Mitchell | CRY | 5.0m | 93.5% | Unlikely |
| Struijk | LEE | 4.3m | 88.3% | Unlikely |
| Isak | LIV | 10.3m | 87.8% | Unlikely |
| Justin | LEE | 3.9m | 86.4% | Unlikely |
| Aaronson | LEE | 5.4m | 85.9% | Unlikely |
| Lacroix | CRY | 5.1m | 84.5% | Unlikely |
| Muñoz | CRY | 5.8m | 83.5% | Unlikely |
| Gakpo | LIV | 7.3m | 78.7% | Unlikely |
| Leno | FUL | 4.9m | 77.9% | Unlikely |
| Ndiaye | EVE | 6.2m | 76.4% | Unlikely |
| Groß | BHA | 5.5m | 74.4% | Unlikely |
| Sarr | CRY | 6.3m | 70.2% | Unlikely |
| Raya | ARS | 6.0m | 69.9% | Unlikely |
| Tarkowski | EVE | 5.7m | 67.9% | Unlikely |
| Gibbs-White | NFO | 7.6m | 67.1% | Unlikely |
| Alderete | SUN | 4.1m | 67.1% | Unlikely |
| Haaland | MCI | 14.5m | 66.6% | Unlikely |
| Aït-Nouri | MCI | 5.7m | 66.6% | Unlikely |
| Verbruggen | BHA | 4.5m | 64.4% | Unlikely |
| Richards | CRY | 4.4m | 63.7% | Unlikely |
| Wan-Bissaka | WHU | 4.1m | 63.3% | Unlikely |
| Frimpong | LIV | 5.7m | 62.8% | Unlikely |
| Ngumoha | LIV | 4.3m | 61.6% | Unlikely |
| Brobbey | SUN | 5.3m | 61.6% | Unlikely |
| Shaw | MUN | 4.5m | 61.1% | Unlikely |
| N.Williams | NFO | 4.8m | 56.9% | Unlikely |
| Bijol | LEE | 3.9m | 55.9% | Unlikely |
| Tavernier | BOU | 5.4m | 55.6% | Unlikely |
| Truffert | BOU | 4.7m | 55.5% | Unlikely |
| Gomez | BHA | 4.9m | 55.3% | Unlikely |
| Beto | EVE | 5.0m | 55.3% | Unlikely |
| M.Salah | LIV | 14.0m | 53.1% | Unlikely |
| Hermansen | WHU | 4.2m | 51.1% | Unlikely |
| Ødegaard | ARS | 7.8m | 50.2% | Unlikely |
| Aina | NFO | 4.7m | 50.0% | Unlikely |
| Player | Team | Price | Progress | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro | CHE | 7.6m | 114.9% | Very Likely |
| Ekitiké | LIV | 9.1m | 101.9% | Very Likely |
| Gravenberch | LIV | 5.5m | 99.3% | Maybe |
| Merino | ARS | 5.4m | 98.1% | Maybe |
| Tchaouna | BUR | 4.8m | 96.4% | Maybe |
| Hall | NEW | 5.4m | 95.4% | Maybe |
| Semenyo | MCI | 8.2m | 94.6% | Unlikely |
| Piroe | LEE | 4.9m | 93.2% | Unlikely |
| Mayenda | SUN | 5.2m | 91.9% | Unlikely |
| Emenalo | CHE | 4.5m | 91.6% | Unlikely |
| Calafiori | ARS | 5.6m | 90.1% | Unlikely |
| Longstaff | LEE | 4.8m | 89.8% | Unlikely |
| Reijnders | MCI | 5.0m | 89.5% | Unlikely |
| McAidoo | MCI | 4.5m | 89.3% | Unlikely |
| Grealish | EVE | 6.3m | 88.7% | Unlikely |
| Slonina | CHE | 3.9m | 88.2% | Unlikely |
| Cullen | BUR | 4.9m | 88.0% | Unlikely |
| Andrey Santos | CHE | 4.5m | 87.9% | Unlikely |
| Salmon | ARS | 4.0m | 84.0% | Unlikely |
| John | NFO | 4.0m | 83.8% | Unlikely |
| Johnson | CRY | 6.5m | 83.6% | Unlikely |
| Trafford | MCI | 4.5m | 83.5% | Unlikely |
| Raúl | FUL | 6.1m | 82.5% | Unlikely |
| Estève | BUR | 3.9m | 78.3% | Unlikely |
| Mee | MUN | 3.9m | 76.1% | Unlikely |
| Cairns | LEE | 3.9m | 73.8% | Unlikely |
| Szoboszlai | LIV | 7.1m | 73.1% | Unlikely |
| Byfield | TOT | 4.0m | 73.1% | Unlikely |
| Steele | BHA | 4.2m | 72.5% | Unlikely |
| Mainoo | MUN | 4.7m | 71.2% | Unlikely |
| Garner | EVE | 5.3m | 70.6% | Unlikely |
| Dalot | MUN | 4.6m | 70.0% | Unlikely |
| Kilman | WHU | 4.1m | 69.1% | Unlikely |
| Ebere | EVE | 4.4m | 66.2% | Unlikely |
| Sánchez | CHE | 4.8m | 65.8% | Unlikely |
| Webster | BHA | 4.4m | 65.4% | Unlikely |
| J.Timber | ARS | 6.1m | 64.6% | Unlikely |
| Obi | MUN | 4.2m | 63.5% | Unlikely |
| Woltemade | NEW | 6.7m | 63.3% | Unlikely |
| Strand Larsen | CRY | 5.9m | 60.0% | Unlikely |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Up | ARS | C, Vs | |
| Down | MCI | B | |
| Up | EVE | C | |
| Up | SUN | A | |
| Down | BHA | B | |
| No Change | LEE | B, £ | |
| No Change | CRY | B |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Up | ARS | B, Vs | |
| Down | MCI | A | |
| Up | EVE | B | |
| Up | LIV | B | |
| Up | SUN | C | |
| No Change | CRY | A | |
| Down | BHA | A | |
| Down | LEE | B, £ | |
| Down | BOU | C, £ | |
| No Change | NEW | C | |
| No Change | AVL | C |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | MUN | A | |
| No Change | MCI | C | |
| Up | ARS | C, Vs | |
| Up | FUL | B | |
| Up | LIV | A | |
| No Change | CRY | C, Rest | |
| No Change | AVL | B | |
| Up | NFO | A, VsX | |
| Up | EVE | B, £ | |
| No Change | NFO | C, £ | |
| Down | CHE | C | |
| Down | BOU | C, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | MCI | B | |
| Up | BRE | A | |
| Up | WHU | A | |
| Up | AVL | A | |
| Down | BHA | B | |
| Down | LEE | C | |
| Down | CHE | C |

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