Scouting The Doubles – Blackburn Rovers

Team number seven in our double gameweek analysis marathon has us scanning the potential of Big Sam’s Blackburn. Rovers are preparing for two Ewood Park encounters having just fell foul to Roman Pavlyuchenko’s purple patch at White Hart Lane last weekend. Their powers of recovery will be tested then but home comforts may yet seem them emerge as a source of some handy differentials…

The Opponents

Blackburn , like Villa and Portsmouth, have the added appeal of hosting both their fixtures on their home ground then. Big Sam will first be preparing the mini pizza’s and pasta salad in preparation for Carlo Ancelotti’s arrival in the Ewood Park boardroom this weekend. Chelsea turn up for what has, in the past, been a stormy affair and one that promises the usual smattering of huff, puff and drama. Birmingham and Alex McLeish (deep fried Mars bars?) then pay a visit in midweek. That looks likely to be high on huff and puff; I’m not so sure about the drama.

Current Form

Whilst on paper Blackburn’s fixtures look tough, one glance at their current home form changes the picture considerably. Rovers have won four of their last five games at Ewood, scoring ten goals and conceding just three in the process. They have lost just twice at home in 14 matches and have conceded fewer goals at home that Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal. Surprise, surprise.

Unlike many of the budget or mid-price teams on offer in this double gameweek, Rovers do look to have the potential for defensive points then. This is particularly true for the visit of Birmingham who will arrive at Ewood with just four goals to their name in their last five away fixtures. The encounter with Chelsea looks far tougher of course and a Rovers clean sheet looks a big ask. However with an average of two goals a game over the last five home fixtures, Rovers will fancy themselves to breach a Chelsea back line that has looked jittery without Cech.

Rotation Risk

Sadly the double fixtures arrive at a time when Allardyce is beginning to have plenty of options presented to him. This is particularly the case in midfield where the return to fitness of David Dunn in particular, casts uncertainty over the Rovers lineup. Dunn returned to action at Spurs last weekend and should be the first name on the teamsheet for the Chelsea game. Whether his legs will carry him to the Birmingham game three days later is another matter.

Dunn’s return saw Diouf and Andrews drop to the bench last weekend, while Basturk joins them as players lingering in the background waiting for an opportunity. Vince Grella is also in contention for a midfield role, so Big Sam is spoilt for choice in this area. Defensively the injury to skipper Ryan Nelsen has cleared things up somewhat. That has seen Givet shift alongside Samba, with Olsson either taking the left-back role or moving forward into a left midfield position, allowing Chimbonda to start at full-back behind him. Sam went with this at Spurs and should go with it again against Chelsea. There will be doubts over Salgado’s start at the weekend though. He got roasted by Bale at the Lane and with Malouda lying in wait, both Allardyce and Ancelotti will be aware of the impending danger this could cause. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chimbonda shifted to right-back and Olsson at left-back against Chelsea.

Up front Kalinic has done enough to pin down a regular starting role in the Rovers 4-5-1. I’d expect that continue over these two matches although again, Sam has options here. Both Roberts and Di Santo are fidgeting their considerable frames on the bench.

Potential Targets

Jason Brown
The double gameweek has coincided directly with an injury to Paul Robinson, handing us a budget keeper opportunity in the form of Jason Brown. He replaced Robinson at Spurs on Saturday and pulled off a couple of decent stops before being found out by Pavlyuchenko’s dipping effort. Brown is available for just 3.9 in the Fantasy Premier League game with the promise of save points against Chelsea and a decent shout of a cleanie against Birmingham.
Predicted Return: 8 saves, 1 clean sheet.

Chris Samba
Going into this season Samba was regarded as Blackburn’s top fantasy prospect in their defence. A powerful, imposing centre-back, Samba dominates in the air which can often catch they eye of the FPL bonus point judges when Rovers keep a clean sheet. That same aerial power also has Samba contributing goals from set-plays. Samba has however been overshadowed by club skipper Ryan Nelsen this season. Nelsen has been a greater presence at set-pieces with three goals to his name, earned two more assists and earned more FPL bonus in fewer matches. With Nelsen sidelined with a knee injury, Samba has stepped up in fantasy terms and last weekend’s headed goal at Spurs brought him level with Nelsen’s three goal tally. If you want a secure option in the Rovers defence for the double gameweek; Samba is your man. He surely can’t see red again. Surely.

Brett Emerton And Martin Olsson
If you’ve doubts about Rovers’ clean sheet potential then Brett Emerton or Martin Olsson look to be your solution. The Swede starlet Olsson is perhaps less secure than Chris Samba when it comes to a starting role but will likely play at least one of the matches in a left midfield role. That could pay off with attacking returns and with an FPL price tag of just 3.8, his value as a cheap double gameweek punt is obvious. Emerton meanwhile is likely to play a more withdrawn midfield role over the two games and lacks the incisive pace of Olsson. He does however deliver a good ball. His price of 4.9 is the obvious obstacle. Olsson looks better value as a gamble.
Predicted Return: Olsson – 1 assist, 1 clean sheet. Emerton – 1 clean sheet.

David Dunn
Undoubtedly the creative force in the Blackburn midfield, Dunn would still represent a gamble in fantasy terms given his fragility and his recent return from injury. He looked bright in flashes in White Hart Lane; bright enough to suggest that he will play a key part in Blackburn’s attacking ploys over these two games. A set-piece hogger and on Blackburn spot-kicks, Dunn’s scoring potential, particularly against Birmingham, should win him some attention for those looking for a cheapish midfield differental.
Predicted Return: 1 assist, 1 clean sheet, 2 bonus points

Nikola Kalinic
The young Croatian still only has two league goals to his name but they have come in the last six games marking a period of prolonged starts in the side; his first real run as first choice striker. Always under threat from Roberts and Di Santo, Kalinic is far from secure as a mid-term option but in the short-term and at just 5.9, he represents a cheap option up front and a definite differential option.
Predicted Return: 1 goal, 1 bonus point

Previous “Scouting The Doubles”

Aston Villa
Sunderland
Man City
Wolves
Birmingham
Portsmouth