With just six gameweeks remaining, our weekly analysis of the fixture list is close to being put out to pasture. Redundant. Unwanted.
For now however, the Season Ticker and our “Frisking” should be a vital tool in your armoury as we approach the season close. All the team ratings in your tickers have been updated today – read on for our take on those who can dream of an easy passage to the summer golf course and those who face a rough ride to the first tee.
The Highs…
Sunderland
Steve Bruce’s side are in the worst form in the Premier League at the moment – once considered an outside bet for a place in Europe, they are now tumbling down the table at a tremendous rate with the 3-2 home defeat to West Brom the latest implosion. On the fixture front however, [bir, WIG, FUL, bol, WLV, whm] the Black Cats do at least have more than enough opportunity to try and arrest the slide.
As highlighted by Sir Paulos Sunderland have suffered from a leaky back line of late, so defensive investment looks questionable. Having said that, Phil Bardsley did his bit to justify his ranking in our Watchlist with another stunning distance strike at the weekend and Sunderland do have match-ups that offer very strong clean sheet promise. The frontline partnership of Asamoah Gyan and Danny Welbeck look more viable options though and, having broken their recent goal-scoring duck, they now have a run of highly susceptible defences in front of them.
Wigan
A run of good fixtures [bpl, sun, EVE, avl, WHM, stk] couldn’t have come at a better time for Wigan as the Premier League’s bottom side look to scrap and fight for their survival. With five of those six matches against sides who could arguably still get caught up in the relegation mire, the Latics will have an array of “cup finals” before the season comes to a close; any victory in these games will see them draw that little bit closer to cementing their Premier League status.
Those looking to gamble on cheap defensive options needn’t look beyond Ali Al-Habsi in goal and Antolin Alcaraz in front of him. It’s Wigan’s attacking resources that are likely to provide the major temptation however, with Charles N’Zogbia, Tom Cleverley and Hugo Rodallega all surely set to play key roles in Wigan’s dramatic run-in.
Aston Villa
Gerard Houllier’s side are slowly threatening to drop out of our “Frisking” reckoning, with fixtures stiffening for the final two gameweeks of the season. Their next four match-ups however [whm, STK, wba, WIG] are all against sides in the bottom echelons of the table, handing Villa further opportunities to claw their way to mid-table safety.
The regular crowd of Kyle Walker, Stewart Downing, Ashley Young and Darren Bent remain the key targets – all have contributed handy returns in the past few weeks – that would seem likely to continue, at least until gameweek 36.
Also to consider: Birmingham – a double fixture and one of the ‘lighter’ run-ins keep Alex McLeish’s side in our thoughts. Blackpool – four promising home games in the next five weeks against sides who all struggle for goals on their travels, will likely determine the fate of the Seasiders. Chelsea -a strong double gameweek followed by a home fixture keeps Carlo Ancelotti’s side in favour. Blackburn – the Rovers run-in isn’t immediately favourable, but we still see goals from Steve Kean’s side in every fixture bar the Ewood clash with United perhaps.
The Lows…
Liverpool
Kenny Dalgish’s ambitions for a Europa League spot are threatened by a run-in that hands them a testing string of opponents. At first glance the fixtures don’t look too bad – the trip to the Emirates next will bring three Anfield matches in four gameweeks, but Dalglish has no “gimmes” in front of him.
Despite last night’s superb display from Andy Carroll and Luis Suarez in tandem, atttacking returns could be stunted by stubborn reaguards provided by the Fulham at the Cottage, while both Newcastle and Spurs have two of the best travelling defences in the league. Games against Birmingham at Anfield and an end of season trip to Villa Park, could be their most profitable when it comes to goals then – although both those teams will surely be scrapping for points and provide a barrier.
Clean sheets certainly look more likely against attacks that can falter, but with injuries rife in the Liverpool back four, Fantasy Managers may well be reluctant to invest here.
Arsenal
The Gunners have the luxury of a double gameweek to come but, following that, Arsene Wenger’s side do not have a run-in that will ease their quest to topple United. Arguably their Emirates encounter with Villa in gameweek 37 is their only highly profitable fixture remaining, around this they face trips to three very strong home sides in Bolton, Stoke and Fulham and have the crunch at home to United.
Fantasy Managers will inevitably invest in the Gunners ahead of the forthcoming double and, in attacking terms, Arsenal’s regular cast of Robin Van Persie, Cesc Fabregas, Samir Nasri and company still remain strong options given that goals are going to be a necessity. We will stick our necks out here and say that, beyond the Villa game – Arsenal are set to concede in each one of their remaining fixtures. Goals at the other end will need to keep flowing then.
Stoke
With a blank to come in gameweek 33, Fantasy Managers may well be clearing low-to-mid price defensive assets Robert Huth and Asmir Begovic from their squads. The question is, should they be considered for a return?
Stoke may well boast a gameweek 34 double against Villa and Wolves but following that, they have a run of games against strong attacking opponents appear to offer little opportunity for defensive return (blp ARS mcy).
Huth remains their joint top scorer on 6 goals, so may well be held by those who are sitting tight for gameweek 34, but Begovic certainly looks to have served his purpose. Those contemplating attacking investment with Matt Etherington a possible target, will need to consider the back-to-back fixture against Arsenal and City.
Tottenham
Harry Redknapp’s charge on fourth spot could well take a hammer blow when North London rivals come visiting the Lane next. Following that, the fixture list gives Spurs very little favours, with three of the most difficult away trips in the league at Chelsea, City and Liverpool, still lying in wait.
Attacking returns could still be on the cards, but Spurs will have to make the most of home fixtures with the improving West Brom and the battling Blackpool, as well as the final day meeting with Birmingham. Aside from that gameweek 38 clash, we’re seeing very few clean sheets from the Tottenham camp.
Be wary of: Everton & Newcastle – this pair have a mix of opponents within their final six gameweeks. Both face United and Chelsea, while Newcastle have a to Anfield and Everton host City. Beyond that, Newcastle do have a couple of home matches, while Everton have just this week’s Goodison meeting with Blackburn as a comparatively comfortable match-up.
