I somehow persuaded the girlfriend to sit through Moneyball with me this week; thankfully the lure of Brad Pitt meant she didn’t bother reading the plot and before she realised it was basically a film about analysing baseball statistics, it was too late.
While the majority of people reading this are unlikely to be major league baseball team managers, most of us can still appreciate the value of looking beyond the headlines and scouting out players that can provide big returns on a budget. Building a Fantasy football team is as much about the undervalued defender as it is about the explosive forward that eats up half the budget in one go, and careful studying of the value/form statistics can often pay off in a big way.
As we continue our build up to another Gameweek, it’s time to pull out the stats sheets again and scout out what we believe to be the value picks for this week with another selection of ‘Differentials’…..
Stephen Ireland
In a scrappy game against Everton last week, Stephen Ireland was Aston Villa’s stand out player and was duly awarded the man of the match award, despite a similarly impressive performance by his Everton opponent Landon Donovan. An assist and single bonus point in that game, plus a 13 point haul against Chelsea two weeks earlier makes him the second highest scoring midfielder in the game over the last three weeks, and he now looks a potential bargain at just 5.6 in the FPL game.
The ex-City man has been key to Villa’s attacking play of late, and his positive performances have even got the Villa fans singing his name, something that he would barely have believed 12 months ago. As the first name on the City team sheet (and many Fantasy football managers too) during the 08/09 season, Stephen Ireland’s decline has been pretty spectacular, scraping together just 555 minutes of play last season without a single goal or assist. The potential was always there however, and now that he’s been given a regular starting role in his preferred position, he looks like the pick of the Villa players right now and a big Differential considering his ownership of just 0.8%.
Landon Donovan
As the subject of an in depth members article yesterday, the statistical appeal of Everton’s on loan winger has already been covered in depth but it’s worth pointing out just one more – against Aston Villa, the majority of Everton’s possession and attacking play came down the right hand side of the pitch – possibly the first time this season that has been the case and a complete reversal from Everton’s usual Baines dominated tactics. Landon Donovan has been the key to this shift in play, and his pace and movement in the final third has finally given the Everton fans something to get excited about. Whether he can convert that into Fantasy points is yet to be proven but the signs are certainly there.
With Saha and Cahill still struggling for goals, the lack of finishing quality is an obvious concern but Donovan is at least creating the chances and against an inconsistent Blackburn side, there will still be plenty of opportunities for him to pick up the points. At 7.0 and classed as a midfielder, Donovan will be competing with the likes of Stephane Sessegnon and Jon Walters for a place in most teams, but his recent performances and very low ownership of just 0.8% suggest he should be an excellent Differential over the coming weeks.
James McClean
Before Martin O Neill arrived on Wearside, James McClean hadn’t managed more than an appearance on the bench but after watching him in a reserve game, the Sunderland boss was impressed enough to give him a run out in his very first game as manager against Blackburn. He has been a revelation ever since, picking up 18 points in his last three matches including the maximum bonus against Man City and Wigan, and now looks to have secured his place in the side, making him an absolute steal at just 4.5 in the FPL game.
It is perhaps only their tough fixtures and recent performances of team-mate Stephane Sessegnon that has prevented more people from investing in the young Irish star, but now that Sunderland’s fixtures ease up considerably, if he can hold down his place then we would expect to see his ownership of 1.5% shoot up. Sunderland have two home games up next against Norwich and Swansea, and with Sunderland really firing under their new manager, we’re backing McClean to continue his fine run of form.
