Analysing Expectations – Manchester City

The aim of this article is to look at the big performers and underachievers for Manchester City over the previous season and see what we can expect from these key players next season. Further articles will hopefully follow focusing on other teams. 

Yaya Toure

Realistically, it would be hard to pick a different starting point. The Ivorian destroyed defences as frequently as he destroyed the hopes of any of us too stubborn to jump on the bandwagon. With an incredibly impressive 20 Premier League goals under his belt, he vastly improved on his previous three seasons’ form in which he scored 6 goals each time. He supplemented these returns with nine assists, the second time he’s reached that number in his four seasons in the Premier League. In total, He was the second highest points scorer this season in the Fantasy Premier League game with 241 points. Impressively, his minutes played did not vary to any great degree compared to other seasons. The question is, can he do it again?

This season Toure was helped to some degree by Aguero’s constant injury issues giving him a chance to take penalties, of which he scored six. However, without penalties he would still have doubled his goal scoring from previous seasons so there is quite clearly an improvement in Yaya’s play  that has resulted in such returns.

Interestingly, it appears stamina may play a key role in this as only 20 per cent of Toure’s goals were scored in the first half this season, 80 per cent  coming in the second half possibly indicating his ability to take advantage of lapses in concentration from tired opponents. This is no doubt he was aslso aided by the presence of Fernandinho or Javi Garcia, which allowed Toure to make his runs.

Despite his performance, we may be looking at a player that will not perform to expectation next season. There are a couple of reasons for saying this. First, his price is undoubtedly going to rocket next season. This obviously increases the expectation on him to perform next season from Fantasy managers if we are to invest so much in him. Second, stamina may become an issue next season. At 31 years of age, the goal machine began to show some wear with a recurring injury towards the tail end of this season. While it was not enough to dent his points return, it was indicative that the high minute-load was taking a toll. Now, add  this to performing in the World Cup and playing the Africa Cup of Nations (ACON)  in January, it seems that it would be fortuitous if Toure’s Fantasy prospects were to emerge unscathed, fatigue and potential injury are certainly going to play bigger roles regarding Toure next season. Aside from this, even missing a number of matches to perform in the ACON is damaging enough for his prospects.

Finally, his shooting stats this season are incredibly improved. At 14 goals in 50 shots from open play and freekicks (28% conversion rate) that is a vast improvement over 14.28% last season and 11.53% the season before. While it is certainly not impossible for him to retain his shooting stats this season, it certainly is hard to guarantee that he will perform at that level again next season especially with added fatigue.

Verdict: At his price, given the extra workload of the World Cup and ACON, missed matches, the requirement for him to retain a relatively high conversion rate and beating Aguero away from penalties, Yaya Toure will not be worth investment next season. While I would expect him to continue his deep runs and pull off some stunning finishes I would be looking elsewhere for a better bargain.

Sergio Aguero

Chocloate hamstring. That’s all I think when I hear that name now. Aguero’s season was marred by recurrent injury woes and scares providing deep frustration for owners. Yet, despite his woes, Aguero produced 17 goals and 11 FPL assists in just over 1500 minutes playing team.

More impressively, if he had taken the penalties that Yaya had, he could have finished the season on 23 goals taking home the runners up medal for the Golden Boot. In regards to shooting, from open play this season Aguero’s conversion rate was 23.6% compared to 2011’s 19.23% showing some improvement but nothing incredibly abnormal. Certainly Aguero’s performance this season, despite injury, should not see his FPL value dip greatly. Once more we have to ponder, will he be able to perform better next season? Odds seem to be a little more on Sergio’s side. The World Cup will take a toll most likely, however,  we may see him utilized more after the group stages to avoid an injury recurring.

If Aguero can remain injury free in the WC then there is a chance he can remain fit for the beginning of next season. What we cannot know is how Manchester City are approaching this, if they continue last season’s tactic of patching him up and leaving him at the mercy of further injury Aguero is, quite literally, a non-runner. If, however, they can implement a better conditioning regime there is hope for Kun yet.

Verdict: Aguero is a top notch goal scorer. If he can  continue with penalty duties and dampen his injury problem even only to a small degree (aiming at reaching 2000 minutes next season) he could be worth the money. For now, we will have to see if the World Cup causes any concerns but if it does not Aguero may be on for a better season.

David Silva

Perhaps our Yaya replacement can come from City’s ranks? David Silva had a good season registering seven goals and 12 assists from 2163 minutes played but a general feeling among those who owned him was there was the potential for a lot more. Indeed, this season Silva’s seven goals came from 31 shots in open play compared to last season’s four goals in 36 and six goals in 56 the previous season.

While his finishing has shown some improvement it is notable that this season he took the fewest number of shots in his PL career. As well as this, the loss of Aguero cut Silva’s assist potential (in fact both seasons that Aguero has been injured Silva has registered 12 assists, in 11/12 when Aguero remained fit Silva registered 17 assists) and his own injury woes reduced his playing time noticeably. Said injury appears to have been an issue requiring ankle surgery and hopefully is not likely to be a recurring issue.

Verdict:Silva’s prospects for next season depend on a number of factors including his own injury problem, whether Aguero can retain fitness and how he is played within the team. With Yaya missing matches due to ACON, it seems that Silva could be geared to replacing him in our teams, especially considering that this season he scored his highest number of PL goals despite playing his lowest number of minutes in a season in the PL. If Aguero remains fit we could see a boost in his number of assists. Once more, it would be hard to see his price fluctuating wildly and as such he could be a key component of many teams next season.

Edin Dzeko

Luckily the Bosnian forward does not suffer from Lindt hamstrings and upped his tally to 16 goals and 7 assists last season, arguably scoring some crucial goals for City in their successful quest for the League title.

From a goal/shot percentage, it is pretty clear that if Dzeko gets decent game time he will get decent returns. This season he registered 83 shots, scored 16 goals (19.2%), last season he registered 76 shots and 14 goals (18.4%) and the season before 71 shots and 14 goals (19.7%). In all it is not necessarily a correlation between game time and goals, more that if Dzeko is given enough time to register a number of shots he will score well. So in that regard we must question whether or not he will be given even more time next season giving him the chance to increase his returns further. This hinges most likely on the availability of other strikers and Aguero’s injury issues. Dzeko will slot beside Aguero when fit as the two appear to compliment each other, a worry is competition from Negredo and Jovetic. There is no doubt that Negredo and Jovetic should see some game time, the latter probably seeing more than he did last season due to injury woes. However judging by Pellegrini’s comments on Dzeko at the start of last season in which he identified him as his main man, it seems that Dzeko’s displays and returns will bring renewed justification in him being played above Negredo and Jovetic.

Once again, the World Cup can throw a spanner in the works, but assuming that he returns in good shape it appears to me that Dzeko is your best bet barring Aguero from the City attack. Given his returns increased modestly, we may see a slight price hike but fluctuations really shouldn’t be too great an issue.

The Verdict: Most likely to retain a starting role ahead of Negredo and Jovetic as well as hopefully being priced relatively similarly, if Dzeko can get adequate time and support to increase his shot tally he has every chance of increasing his goal tally. If he does not, he will still provide very decent value and fairly consistent returns over the season. Conversely, we may see Negredo’s league game time sacrificed for other competitions.

Samir Nasri

Having played more minutes this season than ever before in the Premier LEague  the Frenchman notched seven goals and 11 assists, beating his previous 2 seasons at City in terms of both goals and assists. As such it is conceivable that he will experience a price increase this season and may even start as high as 9 million. For that level of investment, we would be wise to be cautious when approaching Nasri as an option.

Regarding form, Nasri seems to cut a confusing figure. Indeed, of six seasons in the Premier League he has played over 2000 minutes in four. Two of these have been at City, the other two at Arsenal. In this time he has notched: six goals, two assists (2398 minutes) 10 goals, one assist (2383 minutes) five goals, nine assists (2250) and seven goals, 11 assists (2485). The trend here (although we must allow for difference in playing styles of City and Arsenal) has seen an increase in his assisting but has shown relatively hard to predict goal scoring.

This season his conversion rate was 21.21%, the season previous was 10.52%, the season before that was 14.7% and his final season at Arsenal (scoring 10 goals, 1 of which was a penalty) was 17.31%. These trends indicate that his finishing rapidly jumped from a decline over the last number of seasons, the issue once more being whether or not this was simply and outlier this season or indicative of a new goal scoring form for Nasri.

The Verdict: If he comes in at 9 million I feel that Nasri may not offer enough value at that level. His assists are growing each season so he will provide value in that area but goals may be erratic, his form over the last number of seasons has suggested this. A second issue may be game time, Nasri was relatively safe this season but whether that will be the case next season is hard to judge.

The Defence

There is little to be said but the City defence that registered 16 clean sheets this season. It is hard to envision anything other than a similar output next season, with bonus thrown in the high price tags of City defenders may still be worth investment. Goalwise, Kompany and Demichelis scored more (four and two) but Zabaleta and Kolarov registered six and eight assists respectively (each scoring one goal).