World Cup Semi Finals Lessons Learnt

So that’s it, we have our two World Cup finalists as Germany take on Argentina in the Maracana on Sunday. Ahead of this clash we cast our eye back over the two contrasting semi-finals and assess the lessons learnt, including Brazil’s humiliating defeat, Argentina’s surprisingly solid defence and how managers can take advantage of the so called meaningless 3rd place playoff.

Brazil are humiliated

Most teams would struggle without their two most influential players but Brazil completely collapsed without Thiago Silva and Neymar in their line-up. Perhaps coach Luiz Felipe Scolari and the players believed their own hype but Brazil, despite getting to the semi-finals,have been far from convincing this tournament. A lenient referee against Colombia and the width of the bar and then post in the penalty shootout against Chile had arguably been instrumental in keeping the host in the competition. So it is not in hindsight I say Scolari should have played a tight defensive game against a far superior Germany team and look to nick a goal from a set piece. Instead Scolari attempted to play an attacking line-up and it backfired spectacularly as Germany exploited the space left by the attacking Brazilians time and time again on their way to racking up a historic score line.

Neymar was sorely missed. He is the creativity and attacking spark for the side and with him in the line-up the opposition has to think twice about committing players forward, as they know all he needs is one lucky break to score on the counter. But without the Barcelona forward on the field who did the Germans have to fear, Hulk, Bernard, Fred? The Germans were more than happy to commit men forward in every attack in doing so led to four goals in just 6 minutes, which leads us onto the defence.

No matter how important Neymar is to this Brazilian side it was the loss of captain Thiago Silva that proved to be most decisive. He has clearly been the defensive leader for Brazil, whilst David Luiz and the two full backs have bombed on throughout the tournament the Brazilian captain stays put. He is the rock at the back for that defence and has bailed them out a number of occasions already. Without his organisation at the back the Brazilian defence completely collapsed as Brazil were humiliated and suffered their heaviest ever world cup defeat. Brazil do have the chance to restore some pride in 3rd place playoff on Saturday, but will they be able to pick themselves up and perform after such an embarrassing and demoralising defeat?

Germany hit top form at the right time

Lost in the aftermath of Brazils stunning 7-1 defeat was just how fantastic the German side played. Yes, a lot of the goals were gifted to them, but they once again showed their trademark ruthless efficiency with their clinical finishing and will now be favourites to lift the trophy Sunday.

Yet coming into the tournament Germany, though still amongst the favourites, were the team with the most question marks surrounding it. Key players such as Philipp Lahm, Bastion Schweinsteiger, Manual Neuer, Miroslav Klose and  Sami Khedira were all working their way back from injuries and despite Coach Joachim Low having such a huge array of talent to choose from he clearly didn’t know his best 11. Question marks surrounded the team selection. Who would replace the injured Marco Reus? Who if anyone would play up front? Would Lahm play in a crowded midfield and if yes who would then play in the full back roles? But Germany have evolved throughout the tournament as all great teams do, players have shifted around the pitch and squad players have come off the bench and performed. Low has now found the ideal formation and personnel for his talented team and with key players finally back to full fitness it has all culminated in another World Cup final appearance for the Germans.

After such a convincing win Germany will be considered favourites in Sunday’s final. Most fantasy teams will already have a core consisting of the likes of Neuer, Mats Hummels, Lahm, Toni Kroos, and Thomas Muller in their line-ups. So those managers attempting to chase down mini league leaders may have to look to other members of the German side for the differential options. Meust Ozil seems to be the only untapped resource. As mentioned in my last ‘lessons learnt’ article Ozil has the manager’s faith if not the form to back up his selection and fielded in an attacking position he may play a part in a goal or two for the Germans. He only managed just the one assist in the seven goal rout of Brazil, so is the true definition of a gamble.

Dutch come up just short

Netherlands’ and Argentina’s cautious, goalless draw in the second semi-final contrasted markedly with the excitement of the Germany and Brazil tie. Managers that went heavy on defensive assets from either or both sides will have been satisfied with the result If not the game, which was cagey to say the least. Netherlands did come to life in the last 10 minutes but it was a game slim on clear cut chances.

Louis Van Gaal, despite the loss once again, got his tactics spot on, bringing Nigel De Jong back into the team after injury and then replacing him with the fresh legged Jordy Clasie all in order to man mark Argentina’s star man Lionel Messi. It worked so well that Messi was forced into the periphery for the majority of the match, frustrating owners of the Argentine number 10. Even with the semi-final defeat this has been a great world cup for the Dutch and Van Gaal, who has enhanced his reputation no end as he heads into the managerial hot seat at Old Trafford.

But for all the accolades the Dutch have actually regressed as the tournament progressed. Their best game was their opening fixture, the 5-1 hammering of Spain. In that game the trio of Wesley Sneijder, Arjen Robben and Robin Van Persie were at their collective peaks, as the rest of the tournament unfolded Van Persie has tired and Sneijder’s influence has waned. Their play slowly become the Arjen Robben show as he dragged Holland through each round almost on his own. Robben has been in the form of his life this tournament, the goals have dried up since the group stage but he has still been the driving force behind Holland’s run to the semis. Depending on how Van Gaal approaches the meaningless 3rd place playoff, Robben could once again be a useful fantasy asset.

Argnetina’s faltering attack bailed out by solid defence

Argentina are still yet to click in attack. Despite boasting a trio of world class forwards in Lionel Messi, Gonzalo Higuain and Sergio Aguero, every one of their victories has only been decided by just the one goal margin and penalty kicks were needed to beat Holland as they took their place in Sunday’s final. Despite their faltering attack the Argentina defence has looked solid. They are yet to go behind at this World Cup and have three consecutive clean sheets in the knockout stage.  This bodes well for Argentine defensive assets in the official FIFA McDonalds game with the likes of Romero, Rojo, Garay and Mascharano all likely to score well in that game up against an attacking Germany side that will be a constant threat.

Mangers that have stuck by Messi as their captain will have been disappointed by his recent points tally. In the group stage the Argentine number 10 provided us with 4 goals and a clear cut captaincy option, but in the knockouts he has just a single assist. He is however a marked man, the first thought of opposition mangers will be how do we stop Messi. The Dutch almost man marked him out of the game. A fresh Messi would have still found space or wriggled free of his marker but having played almost every minute of his nation’s world cup campaign thus far he has looked tired. With the chance to make history and lift the world cup, which would finally close the conversation on who is the greatest ever player on Sunday, I believe Messi will turn it on against what is an improved but not impenetrable German defence. The little maestro just has to be in fantasy line-ups.

3rd place playoff offers the chance of goals galore

The 3rd place playoff is the game no player wants to be a part of. But no game is meaningless when it comes to fantasy football, in every match there is potential for fantasy points and this game could serve up plenty of points and differential options for fantasy managers chasing mini league titles.

World Cup finals tend to be cagey with games decided by the odd goal, So with attacking fantasy points looking sparse in the final managers may need to turn to the 3rd place playoff fixture for their attacking returns. Recent history shows it is a fixture that can produce plenty of goals.

2010 3rd place GER 3-2 URU – Final SPA 1-0 NET
2006 3rd place GER 3-1 POR – Final FRA 1-1 ITA
2002 3rd place  TUR 3-2 KOR – Final BRA 2-0 GER

In 2010 popular fantasy options Diego Forlan and Thomas Muller notched a goal apiece in their 3rd Place play off clash. While in 2006 Schweinsteiger scored a brace to hand mangers a big haul heading into the final. So what is the reason for such a glut of goals in this fixture? Perhaps it has to do with coaches giving fringe players a chance with fresh legs. Or perhaps in changing the line-ups it breaks up the of consistency of teams. Perhaps teams just turn off mentally in this game and make silly errors.

A lot will come down to team selection for both sides but fortunately we will know the line-ups pre transfer deadline. The question is can Brazil pick themselves up and put in a decent performance in an attempt to restore some pride. Hulk was non-existent against Germany but so were more than half the Brazilian team, I’d be willing to give him one last shot as a differential option whilst Oscar with set pieces duties could be a source of easy points.

For Holland I fully expect Van Gaal to make changes, but even the Dutch fringe players could give a demoralised Brazil side a good game Saturday. Arjen Robben could be in the points once again up against that shaky defence. He is not likely to be a differential player in most leagues, but could become one if handed the captain’s armband. Memphis Depay has shown his talent with two goals in the tournament already and will surely be handed a starting spot. He is worth a shot especially as he’s a budget friendly option in both FOX Sports and FIFA McDonalds games.