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Filling In for Your Heavy Hitting Defenders – Rotation with a Statistical Twist

On the heels of some fantastic and helpful defensive rotation articles by both FFS contributors (e.g., see Roscola’s Leicester and Southampton and (the prolific!) Paul’s rotation series on Stoke and Swansea, Newcastle and Sunderland, Crystal Palace and West Ham, and Burnley and Hull) and by active FFS community members (e.g. Portsmouth Bubblejet’s Premier League 2014/15 Home and Away Rotation and The Sarjeant – 471-68331’s Rotation: Home and Away v Fixtures), I want to add some additional perspective to the existing rotation talk.

BACKGROUND

Rather than populate my back-line with two cheap rotation pairs and one heavy-hitting defender from the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, Man United, etc., in most years I tend to go with two to three defensive heavy hitters from the Top 5 or 6 teams. Well, in anticipation of moving in this same strategic direction for the coming 2014-15 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season, I’ve been searching for a couple of budget defenders who a) can fill in for my heavy hitters during those eight or so GWs when they face other Top 4-5 teams, and b) may in fact rotate fairly well with one another thus giving me the option of playing a back four if/when desired or needed.

Personal disclaimer: In my eight seasons of playing FPL I’ve never won the FPL title. My best ever rank is 1325 and my eight-year average rank is 40,310, but in eight seasons I’ve finished outside of the Top 100,000 only once. My FFS HoF position is 431 for a HoF rating of 92.22.

METHOD

Don’t worry, I’ve got solid numbers in an Excel spreadsheet to back up the team rankings included in the Results section below, but I thought including the raw data in this article would serve to confuse and complicate rather than to clarify. Basically, I used the uber-helpful FFS Members Season Ticker with which to derive numeric values and assign them to individual team fixtures. For example, according to the Season Ticker, Chelsea have difficult fixtures during Gameweeks 5, 7, 9, 11, 23, 33-34, and 36. Using the Ticker, I simply sorted the fixtures for GW5 from weakest to strongest. The weakest fixture was QPR v stk (thus QPR earned a score of “1” for that fixture), the second weakest fixture was NEW v hul, (thus NEW earned a score of “2” for that fixture), the third weakest fixture was SUN v bur (thus SUN earned a score of “3” for that fixture), and so on. In Chelsea’s case, I did this numerical assignment for every fixture in Gameweeks 5, 7, 9, 11, 23, 33-34, 36, and then put them all into one big spreadsheet and let a couple of basic formulas crunch the numbers for me. I told my spreadsheet to output the team rankings from ‘lowest’ to ‘highest,’ as the lowest rankings would indicate the most favorable set of fixtures. I then took steps to correct the rankings according to the total number of fixtures in which they matched up with the heavy-hitting team in question (this correction is reflected in the overall team-by-team rankings seen below by creating three levels of ‘BEST’ for each heavy-hitting team).

RESULTS

So, if/when looking for a budget-oriented player to occasionally stand in for one of your heavy-hitting defensive stalwarts from the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea, Man United, and Tottenham, look no further than the results below. I say ‘stand in’ because in this community article I’m not putting forth a true defensive ‘rotation’ strategy. In other words, this tactic is not about weekly defensive rotation; instead, it’s about finding budget-oriented players who can fill in for one of your heavy-hitting defenders from Top 4-5 sides if/when desired or needed.

GOOD TO GREAT OCCASIONAL FILL-IN FOR AN ARSENAL DEFENDER

1st BEST
The following teams offer coverage of all 8 of Arsenal’s more difficult fixtures (in rank order): LEI, WHM, NEW, BUR, SUN, HUL

2nd BEST
The following teams offer coverage of 7 out of 8 of Arsenal’s more difficult fixtures (in rank order): TOT

3rd BEST
The following teams offer coverage of 6 out of 8 of Arsenal’s more difficult fixtures (in rank order): STO, QPR

GOOD TO GREAT OCCASIONAL FILL-IN FOR A CHELSEA DEFENDER

1st BEST
The following teams offer coverage of all 8 of Chelsea’s more difficult fixtures (in rank order): NEW / BUR (tied), SOT, STO

2nd BEST
The following teams offer coverage of 7 out of 8 of Chelsea’s more difficult fixtures (in rank order): TOT

3rd BEST
The following teams offer coverage of 6 out of 8 of Chelsea’s more difficult fixtures: LEI / QPR (tied), HUL, SUN, CPL, SUN / SWA (tied), WBA

GOOD TO GREAT OCCASIONAL FILL-IN FOR A MAN UNITED DEFENDER

1st BEST
The following teams offer coverage of all 8 of Man United’s more difficult fixtures (in rank order): SOT, TOT, STO, AVL

2nd BEST
The following teams offer coverage of 7 out of 8 of Man United’s more difficult fixtures (in rank order): LEI

3rd BEST
The following teams offer coverage of 6 out of 8 of Man United’s more difficult fixtures: SUN, CPL, SWA, WHM, QPR, BUR

GOOD TO GREAT OCCASIONAL FILL-IN FOR A TOTTENHAM DEFENDER

1st BEST
The following teams offer coverage of all 10 of Tottenham’s more difficult fixtures (in rank order): NEW

2nd BEST
The following teams offer coverage of 8 out of 10 of Tottenham’s more difficult fixtures (in rank order): SWA, CPL, WBA, SUN, AVL, QPR

3rd BEST
The following teams offer coverage of 6 out of 10 of Tottenham’s more difficult fixtures (in rank order): SOT, WHM, BUR, HUL, STO, LEI

APPLICATION EXAMPLE

Let’s say you decide to begin the fast-approaching season by selecting three heavy-hitting defenders from the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham — for example, let’s say 5.5-priced Debuchy, 6.0-priced Luis and 5.0-preiced Davies. That means you’re likely in need of two budget-oriented players to fill out your defensive five. Now, many FPL managers (including me) never rest their Chelsea defenders regardless of the fixture, so why not try picking two budget men who can fill in for your ARS and TOT heavy-hitters for when they face top-four sides? Just use the rankings above to select the teams/players that are best suited to both this objective and your overall team budget. But there’s more…

Using the excellent series of FFS rotation articles already mentioned at the top of this article, you can then cross-reference your budget team/player selections to try and achieve not only the possibility of filling in for your ARS and TOT defenders during their most difficult fixtures, but you can also try to maximize the possibility that your two budget defenders will rotate well with each other as much as possible over the course of the season—or at least during major ‘chunks’ of it.

Case in point: according to the rankings, a NEW defender will provide you with excellent coverage for all 10 of TOT’s difficult GWs against Top 5 sides. Furthermore, a SUN defender will provide you with excellent coverage for all 8 of ARS’s difficult GWs against Top 4 sides. Plus, as most savvy FFS managers already know, NEW and SUN also rotate home and away perfectly with each other throughout the 38-Gameweek season. Not only that, but you might have also noticed that TOT provides excellent defensive coverage during 7 of the 8 GWs that both ARS and CHE players face challenging fixtures, meaning that a defensive 5 consisting of, say, Luis, Debuchy, Davis, NEW and SUN is likely to earn you some decent point production from your defence during those select few weeks when some of your heavy-hitting defenders — in this example, Luis and Debuchy — face more clinical/potent attacking sides.

CONCLUSION

This is just one example of how the above data can help you smartly — as opposed to randomly — select budget-oriented defenders to fill out your back-line, but I would also encourage you to cross-reference my team rankings with some of the short-term defensive rotations and views/strategies already put out there by other FFS community contributors and members (in particular, see Lanley Staurel’s The Alternative Short-Term Defensive Rotation View). Interestingly, this strategy of ‘filling-in’ for your defensive heavy-hitters dovetails well with the thoughts and sentiments put forth by Jonty in his insightful July 23 Hot Topic: Forget Differentials – Focus on the Top 4.

 

Author note: Should there be mostly positive response to the substance of this community article, I’d be happy to run the data for the two or three heavy-hitting defensive teams not included in this article — namely Man City, Liverpool and Everton — as a follow-up community article. The main reason I haven’t included these teams in my analysis is because, at least at the moment, I haven’t (yet) selected defenders from these heavy-hitting sides to start the 2014-15 season.

ForzaInter An EPL-obsessed American ex-pat living in Italian-speaking Switzerland.

59 Comments Post a Comment
  1. The Orienteer - find me in …
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Excellent stuff!!

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    1. ForzaInter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Thanks very much!

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  2. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Good stuff. Think i am going with the uber cheap defender system and allowing myself with all the attcking big hitters. Just think looking at total scores over a season from each of the positions. Goalkeeper and defence isn't no where near as high as the Attckers and then midfielders.

    id rather be able to have Sanchez, MATA, COSTA , DZEKO, ROONY, HAZARD all in same team and risk not playing a chelsea or Arsnal defender, still would like to read your other post though

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    1. Dangerous Dave
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      This. A defender will never make up the points you could miss out on by not owning a big hitter striker tearing it up every week.

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    2. ForzaInter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Indeed...I'm not fully committed to my own ideas yet, and having the likes of all the attacking players you mentioned is very tempting.

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  3. Headless
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Really useful Forzainter. Have gone cheap defenders in previous seasons, then spent weeks trying to sort the defence out. So a change of tactic this season and this answers most of my questions.

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    1. ForzaInter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Glad to be of help...I've benefitted from so many good ideas from members of the FFS community over the years that I felt like it was time to give something back, and this harebrained idea seemed rather new, different.

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  4. Jimjam
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Absolutely fantastic article - thanks very much for sharing.

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    1. ForzaInter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      You bet...thanks for reading.

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  5. Billy Ketsu
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Brilliant article, best and most useful I've seen for a while. Thank you!

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    1. andyinasia
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Fascinating article. As one of those players who does go for 3 big-hitting defenders I'm finding it very interesting. However, it does rather assume you make no transfers throughout the season!

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      1. ForzaInter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        You're right Andy, that is one limitation of the model. However, I will say this...the analysis helped me uncover one potential transfer that wouldn't prove disruptive to the overall tactic: notice that both SOT and STO are two of the 'Best' teams to cover heavy hitting defensemen from both CHE and MU. So, if one were to start the season with a backline containing either Luis or Cahill or Terry (etc.) and a SOT or STO player to fill in during CHE's fixtures against Top 4 teams, then you could easily make a move for a MU defender at any time and not disrupt your coverage scheme.

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    2. ForzaInter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      'Brilliant'...'best'...'most useful'...now those are accolades I didn't expect! Thanks very much. 🙂

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  6. Clay Davis
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Feedback please...

    Speroni
    Debuchy - Terry - Cameron
    Fab - Mata - Ramsey - Sig
    Rooney - Costa - Pellé

    Green - Albrighton - Upson - Targett

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    1. andyinasia
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      You've got 2 nailed-on keepers and 2 nailed-on defenders. You need to find 0.5 to upgrade one of your fringe defenders.

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  7. arifv
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Adrian/Foster

    Felipe luis kompany Debuchy Dawson Oshea

    Hazard Siggurdson Eriksen Barkley Wayanma

    Giroud Rooney Dzeko

    Please RMT Please

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    1. andyinasia
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Apart from the front line, you've broken the template - nice one!

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  8. FPL Daniel
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Forza is baaaaaaaaaaaaaackkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk

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    1. The Machine
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      TFPL?

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    2. Dangerous Dave
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Come on? Stop being such a sycophant!

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  9. stevie
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Great Post!
    I have always tended to go 2 Big 1 mid and 2 cheap and I think this season with routes into TOT for 5.0 it makes for a nice big three.

    Currently have Debuchy, Jones, Davies (Tot), Taylor (Swa) and Wisdom
    .....but as per usual this is subject to change.

    Will be reading this through again so thanks! 🙂

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    1. ForzaInter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      You are very welcome...This is exactly the sort of situation I was hoping to provide some insight into.

      You have ARS - MU - TOT - SWA - WBA as your (current) backline. Assuming that you play a back three of ARS - MU - TOT during most weeks, with this line-up you can cover most of MU's tough fixtures (7 out of 8) with SWA's Taylor. Plus, you can cover many of TOT's tough fixtures (8 out of 10) with WBA's Wisdom.

      This means that you would probably play your ARS defender every week, but remember TOT players also cover ARS during 7 out 8 tough GWs. So, in theory, TOT's Davies could fill in for your ARS defender during those weeks in which a difficult fixture for both ARS and TOT don't coincide (and I've just had a look at the Ticker again...this never happens...ARS and TOT never have a fixture against a Top 4-5 side during the same GW, so with this line-up you've got yourself some pretty good flexibility).

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  10. Ginkapo FPL
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Clever Methodology. Couldnt give a feck about your numbers, but like the idea of it. Refreshing

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    1. ForzaInter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Much obliged Ginkapo...I like 'refreshing' 🙂

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  11. Jebiga
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Thanks Forza ! 😉

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    1. ForzaInter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      You bet...happy to help. Thanks for mucking through it...it's a bit lengthy.

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  12. Tommy Timberlake 42
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    This is an excellent post! I would be highly interested in seeing a follow-up article for Liverpool, Everton, and Manchester City.

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    1. Comment removed. Please refer to our terms and conditions on posting comments.

    2. ForzaInter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Fantastic! I'll get to work on it and (fingers crossed) see if I can get it by the FFScout contributors.

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  13. A.T
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    That was my own reply fail to a different post I deleted

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  14. V04
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Wat r d chances of target getting starts now chambers is sold??

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  15. El Reagano
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Brilliant article!

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    1. ForzaInter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      I like 'brilliant' too... 🙂

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      1. El Reagano
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        😀

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  16. codyeff
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    I'd love some opinions on the team I'm currently fielding! It's causing me many sleepless nights...

    De Gea
    Ben Davies - Debuchy - Caulker - Curtis Davies
    Tadic - Sanchez - Herrera - Eriksen
    Rooney - Sturridge

    Krul - de Laet - Albrighton - Kane

    Thank you!

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  17. Absinthe 42
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Outstanding analysis. It's a slightly different approach to what I usually do, but I like it.

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    1. ForzaInter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Thanks Absinthe...I seem to recall gaining much insight from some of your posts/replies in the past.

      At the very least, I think it might be valuable when the season starts and all hell breaks loose with injuries, player rotation, player form, etc. At some point everyone is going to have made a bad choice of a 4.0-4.5 guy, and my numbers just might help select a replacement who can help squeeze out a few more valuable points over the course of the season.

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      1. Absinthe 42
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Yes that is the problem with these plans. An injury or suspension and if you can't afford to pickup a player from the same team then it all goes tits up. Plus if that team isn't really doing it you might jump ship too.

        Still it's nice to plan!

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  18. Monklane
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    My brain hurts.

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    1. ForzaInter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      My apologies... 🙂

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  19. HERECOMETHEBELGIANS!
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Hello there my Belgian buns!

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  20. HERECOMETHEBELGIANS!
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Little selection dilemma I'm having... Anyone fancy helping me out?

    A) Costa & Weimann (or any 5.5 FWD)

    B) Dzeko & Eriksen/Lamela

    Much obliged!

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    1. penguinsofdeath
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Odd question as you are comparing a forward with a midfielder but B

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    2. Kim Jong Kün
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      B. Lamela.

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  21. Hymie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Quick question. You say that Newcastle covers all 10 of Tottenham's hardest fixtures, and this brings me to GW6. ARS v TOT seems like it would be one, and Newcastle play away to Stoke. Does this match fall outside your 10, or do you see this GW as great for a Newcastle defender?

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    1. ForzaInter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Fantasitc question Hymie...

      You're right, GW6 (ARS v TOT) would be considered a difficult fixture for either team, and my 'model' simply asks the question: Who of the non-Top 5 sides have a fixture during GW6 that ISN'T against a Top 5 side.

      NEW is one answer to that question, but keep in mind there are nine others. They include (in rank order from most to least favorable): SOT, CPL, WBA, SUN, BUR, STO, SWA, LEI, QPR, (and finally) NEW.

      So, you're right, during that gameweek NEW are the worst of the 10 teams with fixtures against non-Top 5 sides (as your question astutely suggests, historically, playing at STO is a nightmare fixture for most teams...including Top 4 sides!). However, of none of these other 9 teams in the GW6 list can you say that they have fixtures against non-Top 5 sides during all 10 of the GWs that TOT themselves face a Top 4 side. Does that help?

      I guess another way to explain it is that when I say that NEW provides the "BEST" coverage for TOT's 10 difficult fixtures, it doesn't mean that NEW always have mouthwatering, surefire fixtures (i.e., NEW at home to the likes of lei, bur, qpr), but it does mean that NEW never play a match against ARS, MU, CHE, MC, LIV or TOT during the week you might want/need them to play.

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  22. applebonkers
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    opened this article, got distracted, got rid of it, forgot about it. luckily it just got a mention in the main chat.
    a whole day later and sweet. great info, perfect for a big defence fetishist

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    1. ForzaInter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      AB: "big defence fetishist"...love that phrase. Glad your attention was directed back to the article...thanks for revisiting it.

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  23. Gnu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Good Work & helpful interesting read Forza.

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    1. ForzaInter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Thanks Gnu...I'll try to submit another one in the next couple of days, but this time on the best stand-in defenders for those going with MC, LIV and/or EVE heavy hitters. Keep your eyes peeled...

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      1. Gnu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        I'll look out for them Forza.

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  24. The Kolarov Mane ⚔
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Does anyone else think that Debuchy's 8 Yellows and 1 Red Card may have been due to a poor Newcastle defense or is he generally a bad tackler? Those stats aren't great if he replicates that again this season... negative points and possible bans.

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  25. meerlight
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    stonkingly good article

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    1. Miss Thing
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      pythagoratingly good stuff, my brain hurts

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      1. ForzaInter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks for slogging your way through it Miss Thing.

        Coloccini(2) + O'Shea(2) = Davies(2)

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    2. ForzaInter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Thanks Meerlight...I've just submitted Part 2, a similar analysis for MC, LIV and EVE, so hopefully we'll see it published on the site within a couple of days.

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  26. Cowboy John
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Great stuff! Thanks. 🙂

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    1. ForzaInter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      You're very welcome...some of my pre-season analyses amount to very little, but I keep finding valuable selection nuggets when digging into this one. You should (hopefully) be able to view Part 2 in the next couple of days.

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  27. kwyap123
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Shall Pulis registers Jerome Williams with FPL?

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