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The Knee Jerk Challenge

18 September 2014 15 comments
Sticky Mockwell Sticky Mockwell
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Among the most disastrous knee-jerk moves this season was swapping Juan Mata out for Raheem Sterling in Gameweek 4. With a goal for the Manchester United man and a role on the bench for the Liverpool midfielder, it was a short-term catastrophe. Here I assess the true cost of such hasty decisions and look to see if patience really is a virtue.

Last season I came to the conclusion that holding on to big attacking assets was a sound move and preferable to knee-jerking them out to chase points. But to see if hanging on to a player through thick and thin really  was a sound policy, I decided to carry out an analysis using last season’s statistics.

I looked at the Gameweek scoring record for 50 players – these were roughly the 30 top overall points scorers and about 20 other budget selections, picked at random among last season’s popular bandwagons.  I then worked out their average points per game for (i) the Gameweek after they’d scored (defined as four or more points) and (ii) the GW after they’d blanked (defined as 3 points or fewer).

Results

Overall on average players scored 0.4 more points per game in the week after a blank compared to the week after a haul.  This gives statistical justification to my theory, although the results are quite variable for the individual players and particular positions. Here are some of the other highlights of my research:

  • The biggest difference was for midfielders,  who scored on average 0.6 more points per game (ppg) after a blank than after a haul.
  • For the five goalkeepers on my list there was only 0.1 ppg difference on average.
  • The difference is fairly similar for the top points scorers and the budget options. So financial value is no indicator of consistent form.
  • The players that scored most heavily after blanks were Suarez (2.6 ppg more, but from very small sample as only six blanks all season), Bony (2.6 ppg more), Curtis Davies (2.2 ppg), Coleman (1.8 ppg more), Martin Olsson (1.8 ppg more) and Shelvey (1.7 ppg more).
  • Players who scored most heavily after previous hauls were: Dzeko (2.6 ppg more), Sturridge (2.5 ppg), Vertonghen (2.2 ppg) and Ivanovic (1.2 ppg).
  • Players with very little difference (i.e. random scoring): Howard, Zabaleta, Rooney and Szcezeny.

Conclusion

My statistical analysis indicates that often people’s transfers make them less likely to score points than if they stuck with their original team.

15 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    11 years, 3 months ago

    Interesting analysis. I often find that a heavy haul is followed by a blank.

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    1. Sticky Mockwell
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 3 months ago

      Thanks, and thanks for the edits too. Nice to be in print at last

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  2. buffrey
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 3 months ago

    No offence but this doesn't price your theory.

    What would (or wouldn't) would be taking a set amount of games after said hauls and working out the score compared to the previous few weeks. Obviously ideally it would he great to compare the score against the player transfered in but that's impossible to do for everyone.

    So if Rambo has 15 points, work out his haul in the next, say 6 games, and compare that to the average score of other active players in that bracket to work out if it was a success.

    I've not for the inclination to do it myself but if you have all facts and figures to hand it may be easy to do. That would be a better indicator of knee jerk success in the mid-long term I'd say.

    All this being said there are loads of jerky knees so some people will probably be dropping sterling for mata again now, no accounting for taste.

    Personally, unless special circumstances, I try to look at forwards fixtures and would leave any incoming player for a few weeks anyway. (This weeks example balotelli)

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    1. buffrey
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 3 months ago

      * Prove not price your theory, sorry.

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    2. Sticky Mockwell
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 3 months ago

      That's a good idea. I will see if I can do that. Cheers

      However, part of the point of the post was about short-term knee-jerks, e.g. I did the Mata to Sterling knee-jerk last week, then after Sterling blanked was tempted to get rid of him for someone else who did well in GW4 (DiMaria, Fab, etc.). My theory is that they are all players who will score well in the long-run but by hopping around chasing points you end up losing rather than gaining.

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      1. buffrey
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 3 months ago

        Fair enough. Jumping on and off for one week after a big haul is a fools game, which is guess was the statistical point you were making as opposed to me just saying it.

        So yes I agree. Knee jerking is fine as long as it's part, or built in to, a longer term strategy. I guess then it's debatable whether it's knee jerking at all. 🙂

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  3. Mikeharbrw
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 3 months ago

    Also, I'm a big team value guy, it might not pay off points wise... but team value.... that's a consideration. Not so much this season tho 🙁

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    1. Sticky Mockwell
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 3 months ago

      Agreed. That is part of what seduced me into dumping Mata for Sterling

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  4. Kalix
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 3 months ago

    Sample size is about 10 to 100 times too small to make any conclusions from statistics, also 0.4 ppg seems statistically insignificant to me.

    The order of hauls and blanks will be 1) almost totally random & 2) based entirely on individual players & that seasons fixtures.

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    1. Kalix
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 3 months ago

      I do agree that knee jerking is a poor plan though!

      I think an analysis of this seasons weekly bandwagons would prove that better 🙂

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    2. Sticky Mockwell
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 3 months ago

      Fair point that 0.4ppg is quite small. To add further detail though, 34 of the 50 players I looked at scored lower and only 14 of 50 scored higher. I think that is what convinced me more than the actual ppg difference.

      I think my sample size is reasonably good. I used 50 players. I believe there are about 600 players in the game this year so I am at almost 10% of all the players. Remember I was looking at all of last season so you've got up to 38 games for each player.

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  5. Whazza
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 3 months ago

    The first FPL attacking points of the season for Marney will arrive against Sunderland this weekend. Consider yourselves warned.

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  6. Sticky Mockwell
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 3 months ago

    Meant to say, the argument of this article could equally be applied to Captaincy choices as transfers

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  7. _Greg
    • 15 Years
    11 years, 3 months ago

    I did Sterling > Di Maria this week and I'm worried!

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    1. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 3 months ago

      There's a reason for higher and lower scores tending to alternate.

      It's because most of the higher scores are obtained in home matches, and are usually followed by away matches.

      There is also a theory that a high score in an away match might be a good indicator of another good score in the home match that follows.

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