It is a popular and entrenched view that Aguero is a phenomenal Fantasy Football prospect, who even coming off the bench can deliver a points haul few other players can match. But is he really as good as he is perceived to be, and how does he compare against a Fantasy stalwart like Wayne Rooney, who has had a number of impressive seasons but whose star is perceived to be fading?

The numbers

Aguero

Year               Apps               Points               P/M                 P/A                 %inv

14/15                 7                        37                       8.4                    5.2                      35

13/14                23                     156                      10.2                   6.8                      40

12/13                30                     121                      6.2                     4.0                      27

11/12                36                     211                       5.9                     8.1                      39

Rooney

Year                Apps              Points         P/M                 P/A                 %inv

14/15                 6                      27                    5.4                   4.6                   45

13/14                 29                    190                  7.7                   6.5                   55

12/13                 27                    143                  7.1                   5.3                   38

11/12                 34                    230                  8.2                   6.8                   41

P/M – Points/ min played (multiplied by 100 to give a simple number)

P/A – Points/ appearance made

%age involment – Number of goals + assists/ 100 goals scored by team in matches the player played

Analysis

Historically, Aguero’s most impressive stat is his very low minutes-per-goal ratio which gives a rose tint to how good he is. But when it comes to the Fantasy Premier League game, that does not have too much value. Irrespective of how low it is, unless he scores more when he plays more, there is no point in having a low minutes-per-goal ratio. Over his three full Premier League seasons Aguero’s P/M (points scored per minute played), varies a lot. And barring last season, when Man City were scoring at will, he was not a prolific points scorer. The lack of consistency in his P/M means Aguero cannot be guaranteed to score more points when he plays more.

But looking at Rooney’s numbers, we can see that his P/M ratio is fairly constant over each campaign, even if we go back five or more seasons. When he plays more minutes, he gets more points. Given he rarely gets substituted, this is a powerful asset. In addition, under the bonus point system Rooney’s all-round game, including passing and defending, gives him a further advantage over Aguero.

Now lets take a look at Points/Appearance. While Aguero’s debut season was prolific, his output tends to mirror that of his team. In both seasons City scored heavily, so did Aguero. Contrastingly, Rooney’s point output has remained high throughout. In fact, he had a fairly strong season last term, when his team was floundering. Therefore he’s a steady source for points irrespective of team performance.

And finally we look at % involvement in team’s goals. While Aguero contributed (scored or assisted) 36% of his side’s goals in the games he played in, Rooney’s is at a staggering 46%.

Conclusion

To conclude, I believe that in a one-on-one comparison, Rooney comes out on top due to

1.      Constant points return per minute played

2.      His consistently superior points return per appearance

3.      Longer game time, so more chance for points and BPS points

4.      His greater contribution to his team’s goals, again improving his chances of bonus points.

There are caveats though to the analysis.

1.      Rooney’s habit of scoring in patches – although he might be making up for that with assists

2.      Unavailability of data regarding goals scored after the player was subbed off

3.      The new United attack might decrease Rooney’s goal output, but increase his assists. It remains to be seen if his overall points scoring will go up or down.