Within the business world there is a tool called the Boston Box. Its original purpose was to allow a business with multiple products to develop a strategy that allowed maximum returns from these products. High margins, latest trends, blah blah, business speak. Times moved on and they now have very expensive computer programmes that do it at the touch of a button, but I thought I would take the concept and see if it would help in the management of a Fantasy Football team, which I see as having similarities to a multi-product business. In both, we aim to catch the latest trend and maximise returns. In addition we need to decide when to sell a player if the returns drop or which player to sell in order to afford the newest thing.
So I have tweaked the original layout slightly to make it more Fantasy friendly and renamed it The Bullard Box, after former Fantasy favourite Jimmy Bullard.
An explanation of each section
Elevators
Elevators are usually new investments with a high growth rate. Though normally it will be a player who has performed well over the past few games, it can be a former star returning from injury or even a player who has an excellent run of games pending. The aim is to invest early in elevators to maximise return in both points and value. Elevator status is normally a short-term thing and tends to occur more often in the first half of the season. Elevators will move on to becoming one of the other three options, a star, a cash cow or an anchor. In my experience the elevator is normally what determines the success or failure of a manager. Speculative managers will often try and predict the next elevator, which can have long-lasting effects if not handled correctly.
Stars
Stars will always evolve from elevators. This is the player who continues to increase market share as well as returning points on a regular basis. The length of time they remain a star is relative to their initial ownership and value. Last season Coleman would have remained a star longer than Suarez, based on his percentage of original owners and rate of growth. If you choose to you can also consider points per pound as an influence on their status but for this I didn’t, though I would think that would work in Coleman’s favour also. The reason stars don’t remain as such for ever is eventually their growth in terms of ownership will peak, this then has an impact on your returns in relation to the wider field. Or simply put, everyone has him.
This is not saying they become a poor commodity, if continuing to return points they then move to being a cash cow.
Cash Cow
A cash cow is a player who regularly returns points but has an ownership that is so high that you only make marginal gains on the field as a whole. (Again if you include PPP the ownership percentage can fluctuate in relation to their value). People will relate this to what can be called ‘a season keeper’. Personally I don’t think such a term should be used, and although I have never experienced it myself, I would suggest one of the differences between a good manager and a great manager is knowing when you have milked the cash cow dry (sorry). This takes a bit of bottle, as without two or three cash cows in the team you will find it hard to keep a high rank, and if the aim is to make decent gains you will have to buy a new elevator or someone at the early star stage. This can pay off, as near the end of the season the majority will be reluctant to sell their own cash cows. A mixture of loyalty and fear of letting go prevents many from dropping someone who has returned good points.
Anchor
Anchors are not necessarily dead weights, they are more players that reduce progress. They tend to offer little return in either points or value. Bench fodder is a common term used, but anchors don’t fall into that category. A bench fodder is an accepted requirement to allow increased investment elsewhere. An anchor is a player you have chosen to invest in with the aim of using and getting returns. They effectively slow your progress by tying up vital funds or holding a vital spot, such as one of the three forward spaces. Anchors are abundant early on, due to speculation on potential elevators, one-week wonders and other priorities. As I said they don’t bring your season to a halt – I have seen a few top-100 teams late on in the season who still have players like Bojan Krkic from Stoke in their squad, but the more money invested in them, the more drag they carry.
Conclusions
This may be just how I think and I am not saying this is a definitive guide to success. I am going to try and use this to adopt a more clinical approach to transfers. I am not saying gut instinct is wrong and it is certainly more enjoyable to land a punt. I think there is a lot to consider if looking at it like this but in short I feel it is getting the correct balance of each category at the right time of the season.
Success in terms of rank comes from buying at the correct time, holding for right length of time and if need be selling at the right time, both in terms of good and bad investments.
It sounds simple but how often do we hear the phrases “I am due points from him” or “I owned him before and got nothing from him”. These are emotive responses and shouldn’t really be the deciding factor for transfers. Believe it or not Robin van Persie hasn’t been poor this year just because YOU owned him.
Ultimately success at this game still needs a bit of luck though I am hoping this will reduce the amount of luck we need. Please note, this particular box doesn’t come with a guarantee.
9 years, 5 months agoReally like this, takes me back to my economics lectures - plus makes me wish I now owned Sanchez - a prize cash cow.
Also nice excuse to put a pic up of Jimmy Bullard being ecstatic.