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The Real Fantasy Football Season Starts Now

It is said that the real halfway point in a marathon is 20 miles; the same can be said of a Fantasy football season. Until the winter Wildcard, and the closure of the January transfer window, it’s all about building team value and gradually moving through the ranks of casual players. But after January the focus changes. The casuals, who pay scant attention to transfers and planning, are dealt with, while the vital winter Wildcard sets your sails for the remainder of the season. From now on it’s all about points and punts, with the focus on team value far less important as the cold nights of January gradually turn to the warm evenings of May and the season’s conclusion.

Beating the herd

With the casuals in the rear-view mirror, the people you now have to beat are those who know what they are doing, the ones who read the forums, look at the articles and generally pick the same team as everyone else. However, they can be beaten, as most of them have a weakness, they follow rather than lead. In order to pull ahead it takes foresight rather than hindsight, and a few moves have to be made that others (the herd) will disapprove of.

Most of them buy last week’s points and will generally not buy a player until after he has come good. In order to rise above them you need to have the ability to pick a player despite others saying he’s no good, and be brave enough to spot and remove a faltering player before the others. So if you see a player you really like the look of, don’t let others put you off.

The forums can be good fun but they act like a giant filtering system which leads everyone to make the same choices, put up a Rate My Team with a few differentials and see what happens – they will recommend you replace all your differentials with the same players they all have.

Never give up

There will likely be people currently sitting outside the top 50,000 who will end up finishing well inside the top 1,000, it does not take much. It’s amazing how quickly ranks can change, for the better or worse.

Plan that wildcard well

Take your overall position into account when planning your Wildcard. For example, if I was currently outside the top 10k I would seriously consider building a team WITHOUT Sergio Aguero. It’s one advantage of a poor rank, you can afford to be different, there is less to lose. The people at the top want you to pick the same team as them, then you can’t catch them up.

If you are currently doing well then the opposite applies, just pick the generic Wildcard and let others take the risks, but be prepared to deviate quickly should the template start to disintegrate.

Top 1k….. Pick generic team and let others take the risk
1-5k ,……..Pick one or two differentials, and look for safe weeks to take a captaincy punt
5-10k………as above with a few more captaincy punts thrown in
10-30k…….Look to leave out one of the highly owned stars that may falter, i.e. Diego Costa, Alexis Sanchez or Eden Hazard
30k plus ….Leave out Aguero and structure your team to take advantage of the extra funds; if he falters you will rapidly rise the ranks.

Twelve years a slave <p>Four top 1k finishes. &nbsp;Only FPL goal now is to win it, so take lots of risks. If out of contention by xmas then give up, to me 10k=1M both fails so why sweat the small stuff.</p><p>Main focus these days is Fanteam where finishing position actually matters. &nbsp;Fanteam is how FPL used to be before it pandered to the casuals</p>

25 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Very good summary of how to shoot up the rankings wherever you are overall. Like you I'm in the 1K-5K camp and looking to get into the 1K elite. Also like you I'll be following that strategy of sticking to the core top 10K template with one or two punts.

    Think I'll do this morning's hot topic on this. Cheers for posting.

  2. TheOneAndOnly
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Excellent article, already enjoyed reading it in the blog! 🙂

    ---------------------- DDG --------------------------
    ------- Baines --- Sahko -- Wisdom -----------
    --- Hazard -- Sanchez -- Eriksen -- Silva ---
    ----------- Costa -- Kane -- Austin -------------

    (Guzan; Boyd, Hutton, Wasilewski)

    1FT, 2.6m in the bank

    Silva > ADM/Cazorla ... Yay or Nay? And which one for a 1week punt?

    Wildcarding next week

  3. buffrey
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Nice one. I'm in a slight quandary though as sat around 27k but chasing a ML. Who has used the WC and doesn't have Aguero or Costa. Most likely will draft in Aguero for the Hull game, but until then I think those 2 are differentials. However total rank they are not, as you say. This leaves skipping alexis (who I don't own until I wc) but that seems dolly with their fixtures and no real solid alternatives for big midfielders. Caz for arsenal but then I need a big Mid2 and with hazard already in tow, who?

    I'm differentiating in defence I think.

    Nice post.

    1. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      I think the above advice is spot on for your group. But of all the big hitters to ditch I personally wouldn't chose Sanchez with his form and fixtures. Costa, Aguero, Hazard are among those I'd consider risking going without instead. I'd make sure you have one of Costa and Hazard though to captain when Chelsea have a good fixture. Costa may be your best bet given his higher % ownership.

      Watch out about 10am ish when I'll do a hot topic on this issue of rising up the rankings.

  4. GreenWindmill
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    "Pick generic team and let others take the risk" 😎

    By that advice I should get Costa then. Hmm.

    1. Nasri Loves Kompany
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      Same! Was considering going without, now not so sure. Maybe I'm trying to be too clever.

  5. BRONALDINHO
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    what if you want to win? 😀

  6. A.T
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Interesting stuff Triggerlips. Can you elaborate on what you mean by a safe week to take a captaincy punt?

    1. Twelve years a slave
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      A safe week to choose a diferential captain, is one where there is no clear leader in the poll, so blanking would not hurt so much. Personally have taken a couple when rank started to slip outside the top 5k, One on Downing and another on Rooney, luckily they both paid off.
      This coming week is a good example of when NOT to take a captains punt, unless you are really desperate. Every man and his dog will be captaining Sanchez. So unless your really trailing badly, its too risky not to captain him

      1. Pepe the Frog
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 3 months ago

        This.

        Now this is sensible advice. Not the crap spouted by Ruth_NZ about not letting others actions affect you. Fact is, when you're up there, actions of the crowd can affect you.

        If everyone else is captaining one player and you don't, you get turned over real big when you make a mistake. It's too big a risk to take. Better to wait till the captain choices are scattered over 4-5 players and then you can make a punt and risk falling behind a smaller percentage of people.

        1. GreenWindmill
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          9 years, 3 months ago

          But by that measure you'd also pull ahead of a smaller percentage of people if you get it right.

          Risk and reward go hand in hand.

          I'm just going to say this one last time today - make the choices that you believe will maximise your score and ignore everyone else.

          1. A.T
            • 13 Years
            9 years, 3 months ago

            This is basically what I do. Regardless of whether or not it's the best tactic, it's just the way I like to play.

          2. mookie
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 3 months ago

            This is what i do, well most of the time. Have only bought two players out of fear all season(Austin and Hazard). I don't remember ever checking what the Top Xk template is(which i probably should). Just like AT says it's the way i like to play it.

      2. Ruth_NZ
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 3 months ago

        Just to observe...

        The best week to choose a differential captain is surely the week when the majority are making a bad decision?

        If you look at the occasions over the last 8 GWs when 40% or more of the top 1000 have captained the same player it has almost always been a bad decision:

        GW 15 Aguero 90% - 1 point
        GW 16 Hazard 47% - 14 points
        GW 18 - no choice over 40%
        GW 19 - no choice over 40%
        GW 19 Austin 50% - 2 points
        GW 20 Silva 46% - 2 points
        GW 21 Hazard 79% - 3 points
        GW 22 Kane 45% - 2 points

        I appreciate that the risk of making a different captain choice is higher when there is a heavy consensus amongst the top players. But so is the potential reward, isn't it?

        You know more about FPL than me. And I do look at the poll on here. If the general choice is different to mine I examine why and sometimes change if I see my original decision was irrational. But I do believe that your personal judgement has to come into it. Look at the opportunities missed over the last 8 weeks if you just followed the majority.

        1. Ruth_NZ
          • 9 Years
          9 years, 3 months ago

          Crossed with Ph3nom. Ah well. More of my spoutings for you to read. 🙂

      3. A.T
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 3 months ago

        Ah I see what you're saying now. It's probably best not to do my Walcott captain idea afterall then 🙁

  7. Jaffalicious! #SomosCubanos
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Nice and intersting read Triggerlips. I am looking at adopting a similar strategy.

  8. Ginkapo FPL
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Risk is equal to reward.

    This article only applies to those who would like a high rank safe in the knowledge they cannot win.

    1. A.T
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      Surely if you've got a high rank late on you can start taking risks to win if you wanted to. Taking those risks early doors will probably result in mediocrity I'd've thought.

      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 3 months ago

        3 Million players in the game, it'll be too late to take risks. You'd need to be in the top 10 at the stage your talking about. And you wont get there without risks.

        1. Twelve years a slave
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 3 months ago

          A couple of seasons ago i finished 35th, tried very hard to close the gap, but a -4 by Debuchy put paid to any slim chance of winning. It is surprising even at that rank how many points seperate that level from number one, was about fifty points away by memory.

          This season already there is a 50 point gap between 1st and 35th very tough to make up

          1. Ginkapo FPL
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 3 months ago

            Exactly my point. If you want to win you have to take risks now.

            And by risks I dont mean ridiculous punts. If you have a choice thats 60/40, take the slimmer 40% chance sometimes.

  9. Blaise
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Thing is, there's not much to do with the cash you save from not going Aguero. My wildcard team has Costa, Aguero, Hazard and Sanchez and yet I don't think it has any significant weaknesses, save possibly in goal, but then the big guns aren't really firing there anyway.

    I understand the mentality of going for a risk to gain an edge over your rivals, but remember that the best team is the one that scores the most points, not the one that is the most surprising.

    1. Dino
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      A very important point is that the team that scores the most points is not necessarily the most expensive one 😉

      This is a point I think all the casuals seem to miss in my experience. It is Ok to have a team with kane austin Puncheon downing chadli Johnson in it while having 6m in the bank as long as fixtures and form allow for it. You see most noon teams with every penny spent all the time leaving them with high cost players that everyone has and that aren't performing. They also have no flexibility to change their team without point hits.

      Tldr don't be afraid to have some money in the bank and don't always just go for the most expensive team you can assemble

  10. KRANOKM
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    great article...makes me wonder that my WC team with Costa, Aguero, Hazard, Sanchez, DiMaria, Austin etc. will be able to crack into the 10k....I'm trying to ignore the Kane bandwagon..but I guess it all comes down to the captaincy punt and a few lucky cheap buys like e.g. Wisdom...