Having dealt with Liverpool in the last article we now come to the other two teams that qualified for the Europa League (EL) through their Premier League finishing positions.
Over the last 10 years, EL (or equivalent) teams that qualified by league position have finished on average 3.2 places lower in the Premier League than in the season in which they qualified [source: BBC]. This drop of 3.2 places amounts to a loss of around 8-10 points.
Mauricio Pocchettino of Tottenham is fully aware of the pitfalls that come with EL entry. He said:
The Europa League is a very tough competition because it affects your domestic league… having had a Europa League season I can confirm that it is very difficult to manage with the Premier League and both cup.
The effect on Spurs was indeed very marked. Of the nine games they played after EL fixtures during the season they won three, lost five and drew one. That’s the form of a relegation-threatened team.
Southampton and Tottenham had very different Premier League records this season:
- Tottenham scored 58, conceded 53, had a goal difference of five and kept nine clean sheets
- Southampton scored 54, conceded 33, had a goal difference of 21 and kept 15 clean sheets
Southampton’s defensive performance was excellent and just behind Chelsea’s. But the lower number of goals for the south coast side masked an underlying problem. On three occasions, Southampton put teams in poor form to the sword, with a total of 18 goals whizzing past Newcastle, Sunderland and Villa. But if you take out those three games their total of 36 goals in 35 games looks far from impressive. Southampton won seven of their games 1-0, which typifies their tag as a team with a solid defence, which struggles to score. In contrast, Tottenham scored more goals across the season but their leaky defence let them down badly.
THE DEFENDERS
It is very hard to recommend any Spurs defender based on the season just gone. With 121 Fantasy Premier League (FPL), points goalkeeper Hugo Lloris was the best amongst the defence. But compared to similarly priced Simon Mignolet of Liverpool who notched 149 FPL points, the Spurs keeper’s return was poor. Danny Rose showed his attacking capabilities with three goals and five assists, but take those 33 FPL points away and he would be left with just 70 – a miserable return for a top six defender. And he was the best of them.
The only other likely candidate for many managers would be Eric Dier, who won his place back and played the last 15 games of the season, having been in and out of the team before that. He shouldn’t be priced too high and, like Rose, could be worth considering if Spurs look like they can improve their defensive record.
Southampton, on the other hand, were defensive gold for much of the season – until Frazer Forster was badly injured. Nathaniel Clyne and Ryan Bertrand racked up very good totals for players who started at 5.0, as did Forster who was leading the goalkeeper charts until his injury. But there is a double problem. Firstly, Southampton now have EL to contend with. And secondly, their assets, especially the defensive assets, are unlikely to be so kindly priced next season. Clyne may leave, but would Bertrand or Jose Fonte be worth 6.0 or 6.5? We could easily be facing a scenario, as with Everton assets in the season just gone, where the price has increased but the performance is reduced.
One Southampton defender that might be interesting, however, is Maya Yoshida. A possible partner for Fonte in the absence of Toby Alderweireld, he could conceivably be priced at a bargain 4.5. This would make a possible Southampton-Bournemouth rotation pair to be a feasible.
THE MIDFIELDERS
There are many Spurs and Southampton midfielders that can be discounted as FPL options based on the season just gone. The defensive midfielders like Morgan Schneiderlin (who may leave anyway), Victor Wanyama, Ryan Mason and Nabil Bentaleb are poorly rewarded by FPL and unlikely to be cheap enough to be bench midfielders. Of the attacking midfielders, Eric Lamela, Moussa Dembele, Andros Townsend, Dusan Tadic and Eljero Elia were all in and out of the team and none had seasons to write home about.
So this leaves us with three main contenders and a wildcard to look at – Saido Mane, Christian Eriksen, Nacer Chadli and the wildcard James Ward-Prowse.
Mane and Chadli are very comparable. Both ended the season priced between 6.0 and 6.5, both scored 11 goals (Mane with four assists, Chadli with six) and both established themselves as regulars during the season. Mane had marginally the better stats for both creativity and shooting but there was very little in it. With Mane you have the key man in the Southampton attack; with Chadli you have a less key player but in a team better equipped to score goals. Take your pick. Much depends on price for next season but it is hard to imagine either coming in at much more than 7.0 (maybe 7.5) and at that level either could be worthwhile options.
Eriksen has been a very frustrating player for FPL managers to own. He played much more than in the 2013/14 season (3132 minutes against 1976 minutes) yet only managed 30 more FPL points. At the same time he may have been one of the unluckiest players in FPL terms. His creativity stats are way in front of Mane and Chadli’s, yet he only managed four assists. He took more shots per 90 minutes than either but only scored 10 goals and managed to hit the woodwork on numerous occasions.
Clearly the main creator in Pocchettino’s plans and an expert free-kick taker, the gamble FPL managers would need to take with Eriksen is whether his “luck” will turn next season. If it does he could be a snip at a probable 8.0. If not he could be as frustrating as ever.
The wildcard pick is James Ward-Prowse. Considered a “big prospect” by Roy Hodgson, the 20-year-old played 25 games for Southampton despite a period of absence through injury, though often as a substitute. His creativity stats are good (better than Mane and Chadli’s) and he takes a good number of shots per 90, albeit with a poor conversion rate. He also has a share of corners and free-kicks. Unlikely to be priced above 5.0, he could turn out to be a very good budget midfield option if he becomes a regular starting player. We could have a potential bandwagon here.
THE STRIKERS
Harry Kane had a stellar season, scoring 21 goals and assisting seven more. With 191 FPL points he was the second highest scoring forward in FPL despite not having established himself as a first team regular until mid-November. In a word: wow. But can he do it again and what will his price be?
In terms of replicating this fine form, the stats indicate he may have been lucky in 2014/15. But the stats can lie. His creative numbers per 90 (chances created, key passes) are lower than Southampton’s Graziano Pelle but he had more assists. His shots in the box per 90 were also less than Pelle’s had but he scored far more goals – a lot of them from distance.
Maybe he’s just that good, a clinical finisher where Pelle is a poor finisher. But it is also possible that Kane had one of those seasons where everything he touched turned to gold, and the way his form (and FPL returns) levelled off over the last eight games of the season lends some weight to that argument.
When it comes to his price, inflation will hit hard in FPL. I can’t see how it can be much less than 10.0 (maybe 9.5). That’s going to make having Kane a much more tricky call; he won’t be a default selection as he was when priced at 5.5 or 6.0. I’m pretty sure he won’t be a Gameweek 1 selection for me at that kind of price, though I am sure others will differ.
Meanwhile, Pelle was prolific for Koeman in two seasons at Feyenoord and started quite well at Southampton. But as the season went on he picked up a reputation for his ability to put seemingly unmissable chances over the bar, against the woodwork or into the keeper’s hands. In many ways he was the reverse case to Kane who he led for chances created and shots in the box per 90 by a long way but fell far behind for assists and goals scored. Unlucky, or just a poor finisher?
The general view is that he is a poor finisher. But how did he score 50 goals in 57 games for Feyenoord then? And why did Italy cap him three times in the 2014/15 season? He would be a big, big gamble for Gameweek 1 but at a likely price of 7.5 he could be a bargain if he starts to fire, especially as he seems to be a “confidence player”. And I, for one, wouldn’t be entirely surprised to see him come good.
The other obvious candidates that should be mentioned are Shane Long and Jay Rodriguez of Southampton. Long has very good creative stats too (better than Kane’s), and while his shooting numbers aren’t as high they should be, remember that he has usually been used in a wide role at Southampton and often as a substitute. If he were to get a run as first choice central striker he could be a real bargain third striker at around 5.5.
Rodriguez is a player whose return a number of more experienced FPL managers are looking forward to. Quick, mobile and able to play wide as well as centrally, he scored 15 goals in the 2013/14 season before his anterior ligament injury in April 2014. But will he be the same player after a year out? Players returning from serious knee ligament injuries often take some time and managers may well want to play a waiting game with him.
Conclusion
There is a lot to consider with these two teams. How will they cope with the Europa League? How will the likely price increases for many Southampton players as well as Kane affect their value as FPL picks? Can some of the potential bargains like Dier, Yoshida, Ward-Prowse and Long nail down first team spots? Will Mane have a better run with no Africa Cup of Nations to worry about? How will Rodriguez fare on his return from a long injury?
There are probably going to be good players to have from these two teams. But it may take a few weeks after the season gets going before we can be sure about which ones.
With thanks to Champ, Lucy and Zan Keroski for their input.
