Welcome to my latest look to see if  the bookies odds can help predict player form and match results. Following on from my review of my bookie based predictions for Gameweek 5 let’s delve straight into Gameweek 6’s predictions.

Captaincy Options

The below list features the top ten most popular picks according to the Fantasy Football Scout captaincy poll on the left, with how they line up based on bookies odds on the right.

1. Sergio Aguero                              1. Sergio Aguero (6/10)
2. Christian Benteke                       2. Christian Benteke (10/11)
3. Riyad Mahrez                              3. Callum Wilson (19/20)
4. Callum Wilson                             4. Yaya Toure (EVS)
5. Alexsandar Kolarov                    5. Kevin De Bruyne (EVS)
6. David Silva                                   6. David Silva (11/10)
7. Yaya Toure                                   7. Phillipe Coutinho (6/4)
8. Alexis Sanchez                             8. Alexis Sanchez (13/8)
9. Phillipe Coutinho                        9. Riyad Mahrez (9/4)
10. Kevin De Bruyne                         10. Alexsandar Kolarov (14/5)

Manchester City is clearly seen as the best source of captaincy points, among both the FFScout community and bookmakers. Kevin De Bruyne’s short odds with little form is perhaps the most eye brow raising.  Riyad Mahrez is kindly priced, and I think I will have a bet on him this weekend at that price. Although perhaps the bookmakers have got wind of Paul’s recent Scout Mission article which highlights Leicester’s downturn in form on the road.

Here are my top tips for the armband.

Callum Wilson (SUN) – In fantastic form with four goals in three games. I fancy him to get a goal this weekend as although Sunderland have shown some defensive resolve recently, they still have one of the worst records in the league.

Yannick Bolasie (tot) – Shown glimpses of last seasons form, with some good, strong, attacking options around him, I fancy him to get on the scoresheet this week.

Clean Sheets

It is worth noting that last week the top three in this list based on bookmakers odds kept clean sheet. Can lightning strike twice? Here’s this week’s list to cast your eyes over.

Man City – 21/20

Liverpool – 6/5

Bournemouth – 13/10

Aston Villa – 29/20

Tottenham – 8/5

Man Utd – 17/10

Swansea – 15/8

Newcastle – 15/8

West Brom – 21/10

Stoke – 2/1

Watford – 11/5

Southampton – 11/5

Chelsea – 12/5

Leicester – 12/5

Everton – 5/2

Arsenal – 11/4

Crystal Palace – 10/3

Norwich – 4/1

Sunderland – 4/1

West Ham 9/1

The Matches

Here are my predictions for Gameweek 6 using the bookmakers odds as one of a number of guides.

Chelsea (7/5) vs Arsenal (9/5)

Arsenal have not beaten Chelsea since 2011, will this change on Saturday? Despite Chelsea winning in the Champions League, Arsenal will provide a much sterner test. Things looked like they were starting to click for Arsenal against Stoke, only an inspired performance from Potters goalkeeper Jack Butland kept the scoreline in check. Alexis Sanchez’s underlying statistics for goal attempts are ridiculously impressive and I believe he is the key man for Arsenal if they are to get a result. Prediction: 1-1

Aston Villa (5/4) vs West Brom (23/10)

Aston Villa looked more creative in their 3-2 defeat last time out whereas West Brom are showing a defensive resolve that we have come to expect from a Tony Pulis side. In goal for the Baggies Boaz Myhill is taking full advantage of Ben Foster’s injury, with three out of five clean sheets so far this season. I’m expecting another clean sheet here. Prediction: 0-0, Both teams to cancel each other out.

Newcastle (6/4) vs Watford (15/8)

I think a good place to start is this: Newcastle registered their first shot on target in three games, against West Ham, and it came from defender Daryl Janmaat. Meanwhile, Watford gained a first win of the season against Swansea so will be full of confidence right now. Watford’s Troy Deeney looks primed for points and gained an assist last week. I fancy him to get on the scoresheet here (2/1). Prediction: A great time to play Newcastle, the fans will expect attacking football leaving plenty of space for Watford, I’m going for a Watford win BTTS (both teams to score).

Bournemouth (7/10) vs Sunderland (9/2)

Bournemouth lost 3-1 to Norwich last time out while Sunderland conceded a late goal to Tottenham. Sunderland have certainly improved in the last few weeks but have not a lot to show for it with just two Premier League points. The Cherries striker Callum Wilson is value for money right now and I’m backing him (19/20) to get a goal this weekend. Prediction: Tighter than people expect, a 1-0 home win.

Swansea (6/5) vs Everton (23/10)

Both teams sit in the top half of the table (6th and 7th respectively) and have looked decent going forward. For Everton Arouna Kone and Steven Naismith are providing form, with Lukaku showing promise although sporadically. Swansea lost to Watford last time out and I’m expecting a response in this game. One player to watch out for is Ross Barkley, who is ignoring the tough fixture list by showing fine form, including two assists against Chelsea. Prediction: 1-1

Stoke (11/8) vs Leicester (19/10)

Stoke haven’t won yet in the Premier League and sitting in the relegation zone, I am worried for Mark Hughes team right now, especially with the players they have brought in, you’d expect them to be doing a bit better. Leicester are the in-form team, with a certain Riyad Mahrez in exceptional form, with two assists and another double-digit-haul against Villa in Gameweek 5. He keeps rewarding his FPL owners.  I think his form will continue here and I back him to score (9/4), although Leicester’s downturn in attacking form away from home is a slight worry.  Prediction: Leicester to win an end-to-end game 2-1

Man City (2/9) vs West Ham (10/1)

City continue a perfect start to the season going into this match, with maximum points and zero goals conceded. Can the Hammers get something from this game? Well, West Ham have won both away games this season, both against tough sides in Arsenal and Liverpool, so there is cause for optimism certainly. Will Aguero be 100% fit, I’m not so sure, I’d certainly not back him to last 90 minutes. If West Ham are to get something from the game, a certain Dimitri Payet needs a similar performance as he showed against Newcastle where he was unplayable. Prediction: Can only see a Man City win but have a feeling West Ham will score, 3-1

Tottenham (10/11) vs Crystal Palace (3/1)

Crystal Palace were unlucky to not take any points last time out against Man City, they have lots to be positive about. Tottenham on the other hand, struggled over the line against Sunderland with goals hard to come by. Spurs man Harry Kane is nowhere near the player he was last season and does not justify is price tag right now. Palace’s Yannick Bolasie looked impressive against Manchester City last week and along with Wilfried Zaha and Bakary Sako should prosper, especially considering potential fatigue amongst Tottenham’s ranks due to their Thursday night Europa League fixture.  Prediction: Palace to once again prosper on the road –  1-2.

Liverpool (6/10) vs Norwich (5/1)

Both teams are on the same amount of points and on paper you’d expect Liverpool to be winning this fixture fairly easily, but I have my reservations. The lack of goal threat from Liverpool is extremely alarming, with their only attacking highlight against Manchester United in Gameweek 5 being Christian Benteke’s contender for best ever consolation goal. For Norwich, midfielder Wes Hoolahan accrued 13  FPL points in his last game and at £5.0m looks a potential bargain. Can him and striker Cameron Jerome breakthrough a Liverpool defence? I’m saying yes, although Liverpool have just enough to ensure a draw. Prediction: 1-1

Southampton (11/5) vs Man Utd (5/4)

In the second half against Liverpool, Man United looked a lot better, playing more decisive balls and running at defenders. Will they do the same against Southampton, who have been hit and miss the season. For the Red Devils Anthony Marital could be a great differential, with 0.2% ownership. I’d prefer him up top with Wayne Rooney just behind (if fit) but sadly he is more likely to pick up a place on the bench.   Prediction: A dire 0-0.

Top Tips

Something which I’m going to put onto each article now is a specialised FFScout bet, where I will stake £10 pounds of my own money and record the results N.B. Please bet responsibly, if you are even betting in the first place.

Here’s where I’m currently thinking of flashing the cash.

Anytime goalscorer treble:

Troy Deeney (2/1)

Callum Wilson (19/20) > 18.01/1 Potential returns: 190.12

Riyad Mahrez (9/4)

I also like the look of a Watford and Crystal Palace win double @ 10.5/1