This is the first of what will be a regular series featuring players who seem to have flown under the radar when it comes to being picked by Fantasy managers. There are a handful of players in the game who have performed well yet have been overlooked by many. I have taken it upon myself to cast my eye over some of these players and analyse how good a prospect they are and figure out exactly why they are unpopular.
The first to feature is one of the few players in the game to have only blanked once. The man in question? Jamie Vardy.
Vardy has picked up a total of 43 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points from his seven appearances, the most of any striker. If he keeps this form up he could be looking at a score above 200 points.
His brace at the weekend against Arsenal coupled with an injury to Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson has meant that a few more managers are starting to take notice, particularly as he is kindly priced at just 6.2. Already at the time of writing he has risen 0.1, with his ownership rising 5% to 16%.
The Statistics
Going into the Arsenal game at the weekend Vardy already boasted an impressive 5.2 points per game average. Not bad for a player that was already impressive for his price tag last season, managing 120 points in 2,241 minutes, which came from five goals and 12 assists. After just six Gameweeks this season, he was just one goal short of that tally already.
From Gameweeks 1-6 he registered 17 attempts on goal – the seventh best of any forward. This figure betters Christian Benteke (13), Callum Wilson (12) and Diego Costa (11). Of these, 13 were in the box; a tally only Sergio Aguero, Bafetimbi Gomis, Graziano Pelle and Olivier Giroud could beat.
Vardy also boasts impressive creativity stats. Ahead of Gameweek 7 he had created more chances than any other forward in the game (10) and had also registered the most crosses (13). It’s no surprise that he managed 12 assists last season then, despite the fact he has only one to his name this season. This is a figure I would expect to improve over the coming weeks.
Fixtures
Fixtures play a key role when deciding which Fantasy players to invest in. Generally managers opt for form over fixtures; however a kind run of games can yield form whilst putting faith in a player before they go on a scoring run can yield brilliant returns. Vardy certainly has the form factor, but what about fixtures? Here is how the next three look.
This weekend Leicester have a trip to Norwich, a team who have favoured scoring goals over keeping clean sheets. The manager has come out and said that they will happily concede two goals if it means they score three. Since Leicester have not been tight at the back in recent weeks, this could have the makings of a very high scoring game. You would imagine that both teams would go for the win, meaning we could well see Vardy getting involved. He does have a 38.5% involvement rate after all over Gameweeks 1-6. The Canaries had conceded 10 goals throughout their first six games; that’s an average of 1.7 goals per game.
Gameweek 9 sees Leicester take on Southampton, a team who have previously been considered for their defensive prowess. Conceding eight goals in six games so far this season, they haven’t looked their best, though they have managed to keep three clean sheets in the process. Looking further into it, however, these came against West Brom, Watford and Norwich. They failed to keep out attacking sides like Manchester United and Everton whilst also conceding two goals to a shambolic Newcastle. The return of Ryan Bertrand and addition of centre back Virgil van Dijk could see some defensive form return to the Saints in what may prove to be a tough encounter for Leicester.
The following week sees the Foxes face Crystal Palace, a team who had forgotten what a clean sheet actually was until Gameweek 7, when they kept Watford at bay. In their last 20 games they have managed to keep only two clean sheets. This looks a good fixture for Vardy to get a reasonable score, but perhaps not a haul.
More long term, over the next nine games, Vardy’s fixtures look like this:
nor (A), sou (A), CPL (H), wba (A), WAT (H), new (A), MUN (H), swa (A)
An Alternative Player
Priced at 6.2, Vardy is certainly one of the cheaper strikers out there. In his price range, there are several other options that could be considered over him. They are the most likely reason that he had been overlooked by so many until Callum Wilson’s injury.
Priced even lower than Vardy, Odion Ighalo (5.1) has become increasingly popular over recent weeks. He has scored four goals this season and the allure of his cheap price tag is enough for many managers to jump aboard, ignoring the likes of Vardy. His ownership remains low at 4.9%, but he is ever more popular among the FFScout community.
Conclusion
It is clear to see that Vardy is a brilliant option. His fixtures are fairly kind and Leicester are in good form, as is he. His stats back up the strong, consistent performances he has registered this season.
It’s fairly clear for me the reason he has been overlooked: alternatives. Picks like Wilson, Ighalo, Anthony Martial and Pelle all gained popularity and a space in our squads after they grabbed a haul. Each of them returned a brace the week they became a bandwagon, aside from Wilson who scored a hat trick. Gomis did not, however he gained popularity from those Wildcarding early due to fixtures and his consistency, scoring in every game prior to the manager Wildcarding.
But Wilson’s injury now opens the door to a player who has been unfairly overlooked to this point.
