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Are Vardy and Mahrez Fixture Proof?

While all the statistics point to the Newcastle game next week being a banker for owners of the Leicester duo (and in particular for Jamie Vardy owners while he is temporarily first in line for penalty duties) the following six fixtures (MUN, swa, CHE, eve, liv, MCI) look considerably more challenging. There has been much debate about whether Riyad Mahrez and Vardy will be able to maintain their current rates of accruing goals, assists and bonus points throughout this run of fixtures.

Last week’s article analysed Mahrez and Vardy’s extremely successful starts to the season. As both seem to be benefitting from the extremely attacking style of play Leicester have been practising it seems essential to assess whether the duo are getting less chances to score goals against more defensively resilient teams (such as Watford) before deciding what to do with them ahead of this tricky run. Following on from the Watford game, this article tries to piece together whether we should expect a reduction in returns for either player in the upcoming games.

Jose's Magic Omelette "Omelettes, eggs. No eggs, no omelettes, and it depends on the quality of the eggs. In the supermarket you have eggs (class I, class II, class III) and some are more expensive than others, and some give you better omelettes. So when the class I eggs are in Waitrose and you cannot go there, you have a problem." --- José Mourinho, 2007

24 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 months ago

    Wowzers. Thanks for this. Really good to see how they are likely to perform in some of those trickier ties on the horizon.

    1. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 months ago

      Wonderful article. Thanks

  2. Kings of Lyon ★
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 5 months ago

    Selling Vardy on WC and this is making me doubt my whole team. I bought him at 6.9 so wouldnt lose too much.

    I think im going to risk going without him. The fact he's a bit of a scally makes this decision easier.

    Mahrez stays though.

    1. Beavis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 5 months ago

      I can't imagine getting rid of either just because of their price. They allow you to do so much more with the rest of your team.

      1. Kings of Lyon ★
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 5 months ago

        Ighalo may not have the stats that vardy does but that extra 1.7 helps strengthen other areas

        1. Ziegler1988
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 5 months ago

          Are you planning to play Ighalo every week? I wouldn't want to GW17-21

          1. BbBb
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 5 months ago

            Yeah he has a bad run from 17-21 - I'm planning on keeping him but either playing 4-4-2 or 4-5-3 over that period depending on how/if I make room for Kun

            1. BbBb
              • 9 Years
              8 years, 5 months ago

              4-4-2 or 3-5-2 even 🙂

  3. Hamstergod
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 5 months ago

    Great Article! Might even affect my captain choice this week 🙂

  4. Woy of the Wovers
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 5 months ago

    Great article and a lot of work clearly went into it. It seems petty to mention it but the part linking goals to wins/losses is sadly the wrong way round. However the bulk of the article is on whether Leicester, Mahrez, Vardy perform against strong/weak defences and that, to me, is the best way of looking at this.

    1. Jose's Magic Omelette
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 months ago

      Totally agree, that's why I refer to it as "backwards logic"!

  5. Doolittle
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 5 months ago

    Good stuff JMO, I see absolutely no reason to ditch either while they're performing as they are.

  6. pompeyfan
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 months ago

    Good research and well put.

    I still think Leicester will finish in the bottom half and Vardy revert points output will regress to the norm. The figures don't take into account teams wising up and learning how to counter teams.

  7. ☆Khaz
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 months ago

    Excellent article, a very interesting read!

  8. roscola
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 5 months ago

    Brilliant stuff. On the last article, I promised to look into the weak/tough defence split and failed so you went and did it for me, much better than I would have done. Great job, man.

  9. djpete
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 5 months ago

    Jose, any thoughts on my Lanzini / Mahrez rotation? No one is taking it seriously so far...

  10. Mark-O
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 months ago

    Very useful. Great job for the thorough analysis!

  11. FPL_Sponge
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 months ago

    First season as a FFS member and by far the best/most useful article I have read. Thanks JMO. Was planning on transferring Vardy out for Ighalo, but am now looking at other ways to acquire the Aguero funds.

    1. Woy of the Wovers
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 5 months ago

      I shall call you The Wise One.

  12. Ratatouille
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 months ago

    Great article Jose!

  13. tm245
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 5 months ago

    Really nice work. I have submitted part one of a two part article on captaincy decisions, and hadn't thought to use xg as one of the measures for part two. This line of thinking is very helpful. Cheers.

  14. Hibbo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 5 months ago

    Fantastic piece.

  15. Kenzoblu
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 5 months ago

    Great work, thanks for the time

  16. FPL P0ker PlAyer
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 months ago

    Really liked the ideas behind your approach. Great article.

    One immediate caveat I'd issue regarding Vardy's goal tallies vs strong defences though, is that it his average will have been distorted by the 2 goals Gomes of Watford gifted him. That said, this doesn't detract from the results shown by the xG model.