What the Bookies Say – Gameweek 14

Welcome to my latest look to see if the bookies’ odds can help predict player form and match results.

Captaincy Options

The names on the left-hand side are the leaders in FFScout’s captaincy poll (at time of writing), while on the right are the bookies’ fraction bets to score. On the far right are the decimal odds

1. Romelu Lukaku     1. Olivier Giroud (19/20) 1.95
2. Sergio Aguero       2. Sergio Aguero (19/20) 1.95
3. Alexis Sanchez     3. Alexis Sanchez (11/10) 2.10
4. Harry Kane            4. Harry Kane (29/20) 2.45
5. Odion Ighalo          5. Odion Ighalo (29/20) 2.45
6. Mesut Ozil            6. Jamie Vardy (29/20) 2.45
7. Philippe Coutinho   7. Roberto Firmino (8/5) 2.60
8. Jamie Vardy          8. Philippe Coutinho (7/4) 2.75
9. Roberto Firmino     9. Mesut Ozil (19/10) 2.90
10. Olivier Giroud        10. Romelu Lukaku (19/10) 2.90

Captaincy Analysis:

1. Romelu Lukaku (bou) – I had to triple-check the price of the leader of the FFS Captain poll because I could not believe how high a price the bookies have given him. A porous Bournemouth defence shows no signs of stopping a much improved Everton of late; snap him up at that price as it won’t last long. A great contender for the armband this week
2. Olivier Giroud (nor) – Most of the talk amongst Fantasy managers regarding the captaincy surrounds Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil, however the bookies are far keener on Giroud.  With Theo Walcott still out, the rotation fear is eased and with three Arsenal players making the top 10 of this week’s FFScout poll, it is clear that amongst Fantasy managers goals are expected in this game.

Clean Sheets

(in order, decimals on the right):

Liverpool (21/20) 2.05

Man City (5/4) 2.25

Crystal Palace (11/8) 2.37

Arsenal (29/20) 2.45

West Ham (29/20) 2.45

Stoke (13/8) 2.62

Aston Villa (7/4) 2.75

Man Utd (19/10) 2.90

Watford (19/10) 2.90

Tottenham (11/5) 3.20

Sunderland (9/4) 3.25

Everton (12/5) 3.40

Chelsea (13/5) 3.60

Leicester (13/5) 3.60

Bournemouth (11/4) 3.75

West Brom (3/1) 4.00

Newcastle (4/1) 5.00

Norwich (5/1) 6.00

Southampton (5/1) 6.00

Swansea (5/1) 6.00

The Matches

Odds for each team to win in brackets followed by a score prediction

Bournemouth (19/10) vs Everton (29/20): 1-3 – Everton to continue their winning ways in an end-to-end game with Lukaku and Deulofeu providing the main attacking threats for Everton.

Man City (8/15) vs Southampton (5/1): 2-1 – The quality of Manchester City will ultimately come through despite going behind early doors. No Vincent Kompany, no clean sheet.

Aston Villa (13/8) vs Watford (9/5): 1-2 – The first game for Remi Garde where his team will be expected to attack, which can only suit Watford. Pressure mounting already for the new manager.

Sunderland (21/10) vs Stoke (7/5): 1-1 – Stoke to concede against an improving Sunderland side but ultimately the points will be shared.

Crystal Palace (¾) vs Newcastle (19/5): 2-0 – Despite Crystal Palace struggling at home, they come up against Newcastle who can’t buy a goal. A nervy start for the hosts but their attacking prowess will see them over the line.

Leicester (21/10) vs Man Utd (13/10): 3-2 – Either a boring 0-0 with both teams cancelling each other out or the potential for one of the games of the season, I fear the former but my heart says goals with Leicester showing just how good they are going forward with Riyad Mahrez to pull the strings and Jamie Vardy chasing a consecutive scoring record.

Tottenham (29/20) vs Chelsea (19/10): 2-1 – How much will the Europa league tie take out of Tottenham? I think Tottenham have been superb this season and will edge this one, thereby putting more pressure on Jose Mourinho

West Ham (EVS) vs West Brom (3/1): 0-1 – West Ham are so reliant on Dimitri Payet that I see them struggling in this game, especially if the poor Andy Carroll stays up front. I fear for West Ham without their playmaker over the Christmas schedule. West Brom will be buoyed from the victory against Arsenal and could pull off a surprise here.

Liverpool (1/2) vs Swansea (6/1): 3-1 – Even if Coutinho doesn’t quite make this game, Liverpool have shown enough improvement under Klopp that I think this will be fairly comfortable. Swansea look likely to concede almost at will right now and I expect them to ship more goals here.

Norwich (9/2) vs Arsenal (6/10): 1-3 – The bookies have priced up Arsenal’s attacking options accordingly to what they think is a certain Arsenal victory. Giroud/Ozil/Sanchez likely to be in the points here.

Tip: Lukaku anytime + Giroud anytime + Palace clean sheet @ 12.43/1

Gameweek 13

Finally, a quick look back to see how last week’s predictions fared.

• Seven of the top 10 FFScout captaincy options delivered attacking returns this week
• Only Chelsea and Everton delivered clean sheets from the top five most likely according to the bookies, with only four clean sheets all Gameweek.
• All three captaincy tips did the business, each getting on the scoresheet.
• Only a Southampton cleen sheet was missing from the suggested betting tip